CTH has a strong sense that when the final analysis on Venezuela’s ongoing socialist struggle is written, some years from now, the geopolitical strategy used by the Trump administration will be taught in political science classes. [Backstory Here]
As a result of horrific socialist policies, primarily driven by using oil production to maintain it’s socialist governance, Venezuela is under massive debt and desperate for cash.  The United States was one of the few remaining cash purchasers of Venezuela oil before U.S. Secretary of Treasury  Mnuchin imposed sanctions.
Previously China and Russia purchased Maduro’s oil, however their current purchases are/were all made as offsets, repayments, for prior loans.  China and Russia already own 49% of Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA. Venezuela repays China and Russia with oil, but Venezuela needs cash revenue. It doesn’t generate additional revenue for Maduro if China and Russia purchase more oil, it only pays down the Venezuelan debt.
Venezuela needs money.  However, if anyone engages in restructured debt or further loans or bond holdings to Maduro they run the risk of running afoul of Secretary Mnuchin’s sanctions which could have a downstream effect of freezing their own banks and international financial systems from engagement with U.S. banks.
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The headline says -2.6%, but that’s the median.  The actual 2019 economic predictive modeling for Mexico is up to a 4% contraction if the U.S. cancels NAFTA.  The next round of NAFTA negotiations is scheduled for November 17th.

Additionally, these models are based on current trade economics and do not factor in the ramifications of Mexico joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership; and signing up to manufacturing sector agreements with Asian nations who can easily undercut even the low wage rates in Mexico based on average wealth.
The predictive models are run by various analysts paid by multinational business interests (corporations) to give advanced forecasting.  The results of the forecasts are used by multinational financial systems to determine the inherent value of future investment within Mexico.
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Apologies in advance to our conservative Canadian friends; but the explainer here is regarding America-First trade and economics against the backdrop of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, Canada and Mexico’s alignment therein, the APEC Summit and rainbow socks.

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Justin from Canada

Here’s why Canada and Mexico signing up to TPP is great news for the U.S., and couldn’t come at a better time for NAFTA round #5 on November 17th.  We don’t want TPP to collapse, because TPP ties the hands of Canada and Mexico to elements of trade that are based on collective interests. Their joining TPP provides the U.S. leverage in NAFTA.
Remember, Vietnam is exactly 12 hours ahead of U.S. Eastern time zone.  At 7:450pm last evening in Vietnam (local time), at the last minute, Rainbow Socks backed out of the signing the TPP framework (explained here).  Twelve hours later, at 7:20am (local), the AP reported the agreement was “back on” with “a compromise”:

DANANG, Vietnam (AP) — The Latest on the summit of 21 Pacific Rim economies in Vietnam (all times local): 7:20 a.m. – Trade ministers say they have reached a basic agreement on a Pacific Rim trade pact without the United States.

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United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer was interviewed by Fox News host Laura Ingraham ahead of his important participation in the Asia trip.
Within the interview Ambassador Lighthizer shows his wolverine attitude toward the ongoing trade deals and his role within the larger geopolitical strategy of the Trump Doctrine.  There’s solid, affirming and unwavering economic insight within this interview.
Interestingly Lighthizer mentions the national security aspects inherent within the administration’s economic trade strategy. He details how his role, within the larger policy, is to focus intensely on achieving the best ‘America-First‘ trade deal possible. “Killers”.
Secretary Wilbur Ross (commerce), Secretary Steven Mnuchin (treasury), Secretary Rex Tillerson (state) and Secretary James Mattis (defense) then collate the outcome and ultimately President Trump makes the final decision.  Working in concert, together they map how to use the leverage within the Lighthizer’s deals to achieve national security objectives.

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WASHINGTON — U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced today that construction for prototypes of the Border Wall has concluded in San Diego.

The prototype construction phase is complete. CBP will now test and evaluate the finished products, provided by industry, to determine which wall design elements meets our needs. This testing and evaluation period will last 30 to 60 days.
“Border security contributes to our overall national security and relies on a combination of border infrastructure, technology, personnel, and partnerships,” said acting Deputy Commissioner Ron Vitiello.
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Well, well, well. In what can only be described as perfectly representative of the perspectives of Canada, Mexico and the U.S., the principals within NAFTA [Robert Lighthizer (U.S.), Chrystina Freeland (Can), Ildefonso Guajardo (Mex)] showcase their unique positions during a press conference at the conclusion of round #4.
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer begins with the elements of a statement that all parties agree upon. Not much. (Transcript added)
Next comes the smug, self-righteous, and virtue signaling Canadian economic parasite Chrystina Freeland; with an over-the-top emotional plea about how military cemeteries should form the basis of multinational trade deals because trade sectors should be based on her feelings, or something. Mexican economic parasite Ildefonso Guarjardo joins the CanMex position decrying the insufferable demands of the economic host: “we must understand that we all have limits.”
Then comes the hammer. Lighthizer announces to both parasites their positions are fraught with hypocrisy and self-preservation; and the time to reset the imbalance is now. Pointing out how Canada and Mexico agreed to TPP text they are now rejecting in NAFTA, and specifically identifying how their companies have become reliant on special preferences, Lighthizer lets Canada and Mexico know that the time for their feasting on the host is OVER. Watch (transcript added below):

The distance between the parties is too significant and a diplomatic “cooling off” period of one month is agreed upon; prior to entry into round #5 which will take place in Mexico, mid-November. The goal of an agreement, if any agreement is possible, concluding by the end of the year is gone.
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NAFTA Round #4 negotiations have been ongoing and resulting in little progress on the serious issues surrounding the three nation trade pact.
Word from behind the scenes, and off-the-record, finds several insiders with the opinion that the decision by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce lobbying group to conflict with President Trump and the U.S. trade team has backfired.
U.S. CoC President Tom Donohue made the decision to align in common cause with Canada and Mexico, against the interests of the U.S., and go public with his attacks against the U.S. negotiating team, the administration and President Trump personally.
Following the confrontational approach by the largest DC lobbying group, the U.S. team asked Canada to take their protectionist trade restrictions off the Dairy and Poultry sectors.  Canada was adamant they will never leave their agriculture unprotected, and rejected any consideration of open trade discussion toward those sectors.
The U.S. is standing firm on three elements that Mexico and Canada are dead-set against:
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Here we go… buckle up, and grab the popcorn.  This is the part where the “trillions at stake” comes into play…

U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Tom Donohue is now engaged in a direct fight with U.S. President Donald Trump. As would be expected, and as we specifically predicted, Tom Donohue is now specifically aligning himself with Canada and Mexico against the interests of the United States economy.

Tom Donohue gives hundreds of millions to Mitch McConnell and the crony UniParty capitalist ilk that infect Washington DC. Donohue owns the vast majority of U.S. politicians. This battle is the epicenter of lobbying usurpation, and how multinational corporations own U.S. politicians. This battle will be epic.

MEXICO CITY/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The most powerful U.S. business lobby accused the Trump administration on Tuesday of making “poison pill proposals” to sabotage talks aimed at modernizing NAFTA, as negotiators began gathering in Washington for fresh trade talks.
[…] Speaking in Mexico City, Thomas Donohue, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s president and chief executive, listed several U.S. proposals that he said would undermine $1 trillion in annual trilateral trade, including a “sunset clause” to force regular negotiations.

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Put this in the ‘Things Moonbats Do That Backfire‘ folder.
The day after California Governor Jerry Brown signs a bill that prevents local police notifying ICE of illegal alien arrests ICE notifies California their new law forces workplace raids as enforcement actions:

SB54 will negatively impact ICE operations in California by nearly eliminating all cooperation and communication with our law enforcement partners in the state, voiding the delegated authority that the Orange County Sheriff’s Office has under the 287g program, and prohibiting local law enforcement from contracting with the federal government to house detainees.
ICE will have no choice but to conduct at-large arrests in local neighborhoods and at worksites, which will inevitably result in additional collateral arrests, instead of focusing on arrests at jails and prisons where transfers are safer for ICE officers and the community. ICE will also likely have to detain individuals arrested in California in detention facilities outside of the state, far from any family they may have in California.

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The first set of eight border wall prototypes are under construction.  The Daily Mail has an article showing drone footage from the area and a few of the prototypes competing for border wall contracts. –SEE HERE– The first four contracts to build the prototypes were worth $400 to $500 thousand each and are targeted toward “concrete and reinforced concrete” prototypes.

There will be four additional prototypes using alternate material.   The second set of prototype contracts will surround “alternative material” concepts.  USCBP previously announced awarding four of those contracts in a similar fashion.
Each segment of prototype is thirty feet wide and thirty feet high (30′ x 30′), and will be the backdrop of a 150 foot wide border enforcement zone.
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