The Wall Street Journal has an interesting article [SEE HERE] outlining inter-connected data points for various state economies in a post-pandemic environment.

The topline takeaways are: (1) Employment in red states has fully recovered, and now exceeds the number of jobs as before the pandemic. (2) Employment in blue states remains below the pandemic numbers; meaning they have not recovered. (3) Net migration still shows people fleeing blue states like New York, California and Illinois; while (4) Net migration into red states like Florida, Texas, North/South Carolina and Tennessee is continuing.

(Wall Street Journal) – […] Forty-six million people moved to a different ZIP Code in the year through February 2022, the most in any 12-month period in records going back to 2010, according to a Moody’s analysis of Equifax Inc. consumer-credit reports. The states that gained the most, led by Florida, Texas and North Carolina, are almost all red, as defined by the Cook Political Report based on how states voted in the past two presidential elections. The states that lost the most residents are almost all blue, led by California, New York and Illinois. (read more)

The professional business class analysts (eyeroll) at the WSJ attribute the demographic shifts to the worker disconnect from the office.  Meaning workers can now work from home and are moving to environments where the quality of life is better.  White collar workers no longer bound to the geographic limitations of central office locations.

While some of that is likely accurate, there is no consideration for the lockdown effect.  The results of the pandemic showcased a very brutal acceptance, more people now seemingly realizing the politics of their regional leadership has a direct and consequential impact to the quality of their life.  The blue state leaders, ideologically disposed to dismissing the opinion of citizens, generally dispatched any consideration for the quality-of-life impact they created.  The people were irrelevant.

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Gallup has conducted a survey of American confidence in several institutions [DATA HERE].  Overall confidence in institutions has dropped significantly in the last year, which is not a surprise given the turmoil now seemingly all around us.

The survey measures and compares American confidence from 2021 to 2022.  It is worth noting, confidence in the office of the presidency is the #1 drop in the survey.

GALLUP – “This year’s poll marks new lows in confidence for all three branches of the federal government — the Supreme Court (25%), the presidency (23%) and Congress. Five other institutions are at their lowest points in at least three decades of measurement, including the church or organized religion (31%), newspapers (16%), the criminal justice system (14%), big business (14%) and the police.” (link)

This survey reflects and increasingly dangerous position for government and institutions of society.  We are a nation, a representative republic, that is held together with a common understanding of basic adherence to values, principles and lawfulness.

Take away confidence, and what this survey really starts to outline is institutions losing legitimacy in the eyes of We The People.  Dangerous things can happen when unease and distrust exist.

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Senator Lindsey Graham (U-DC) was apparently in Turkey around the same time as the NATO summit.  According to a Twitter announcement by Graham he has returned to the U.S. hopeful to close the deal on selling F-16”s to Turkey now that Turkish President Recep Erdogan has removed opposition to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

“I will do all in my power to support the Biden Administration’s decision to sell F-16s to the Turkish Air Force,” Graham writes.

Also adding, “These fighter jets, in the hands of our NATO allies, will create a sense of stability and provide capability to the Turkish military that is most definitely in America’s national security interests.” {link}

On Tuesday of last week Turkey removed their block of Sweden and Finland from joining NATO, and on Wednesday Joe Biden agreed to sell Turkey 40 Lockheed Martin-made F-16 fighters and nearly 80 modernization kits for its existing warplanes:

Newsmax – The Biden administration threw its support on Wednesday behind the potential sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, a day after Ankara lifted a veto of NATO membership for Finland and Sweden.

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Separatists in Luhansk had been embroiled in a bloody civil war against the Ukraine military since 2014.  On Sunday Russia announced its military forces and allies had taken control of Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region after capturing the final Ukrainian holdout of Lysychansk.   Based on ground reports showing celebrations of Russian troops and the citizens of Lysychansk, the end of that regional conflict appears confirmed.

According to Politico, “Ukrainian troops have retreated from Lysychansk, the last major Kyiv-controlled city in the eastern Luhansk region, the country’s military command said Sunday. “In order to preserve the lives of the defenders of Ukraine, a decision was made to withdraw,” according to a statement from the General Staff of the Armed Forces.” {link}

Previously Moscow media were reporting that Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu told President Vladimir Putin Luhansk had been “liberated”, after earlier statements saying the military had captured villages around Lysychansk and encircled the city.

Politico – […] Ukraine’s military command said that given the great “superiority” of Russia’s troops in terms of weapons, ammunition and personnel, attempts to prolong the defense of the city — which had a pre-war population of around 100,000 — “would lead to fatal consequences.

The eastern region of Ukraine is a major target for Russia: Moscow-backed separatists have been fighting Ukrainian forces since 2014 in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions that make up the key industrial area of Donbas, and Russia’s recognition of the self-styled people’s republics there preceded its full-scale invasion of the country this past February.

[…]  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Sunday that “there is a risk” that the whole Luhansk region could be fully occupied by Russian troops soon. “There are such risks, and we realize them,” he said at a press conference after a meeting with Australian PM Anthony Albanese in Kyiv.

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John Kirby is the former Pentagon spokesperson who is now the National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications.  The people in/around the White House have shifted Kirby, a very good spinner of parseltongue, into a place where he can give the media an impression of White House competency.

The LGBTQ, racially inclusive and woke checkbox hires are not up to the task of their positions.  Incompetence is running amok.  As a result, it is somewhat ironic and representative the Biden hypocrisy, that Kirby is needed to take the pressure away from administration checkbox hires.  In this interview Kirby defends the White House policy on the Russia-Ukraine war, interventionist and dependent foreign policy, and the energy policy that has resulted in high gas prices.

Video prompted to 04:05, where the topic of Biden’s upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia is discussed.  WATCH:

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The G7 plan to create another economic sanction against Russia by capping the price anyone could pay for Russian oil has a serious downside.  If Russia slows down the export of oil, global oil prices will jump dramatically.   That policy outcome would mean a massive increase in the price of gasoline for U.S. consumers.

Because the consequences are horrible, that’s precisely the reason Joe Biden might push to have the Russian price cap.  Every policy Joe Biden has historically supported, has been the exact opposite of what should have been done.  Biden has a profound and innate ability to screw up anything.

[Bloomberg] – Global oil prices could reach a “stratospheric” $380 a barrel if US and European penalties prompt Russia to inflict retaliatory crude-output cuts, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts warned.

The Group of Seven nations are hammering out a complicated mechanism to cap the price fetched by Russian oil in a bid to tighten the screws on Vladimir Putin’s war machine in Ukraine. But given Moscow’s robust fiscal position, the nation can afford to slash daily crude production by 5 million barrels without excessively damaging the economy, JPMorgan analysts including Natasha Kaneva wrote in a note to clients.

For much of the rest of the world, however, the results could be disastrous. A 3 million-barrel cut to daily supplies would push benchmark London crude prices to $190, while the worst-case scenario of 5 million could mean “stratospheric” $380 crude, the analysts wrote.

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Much has been made of comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in his brief explanation of what the Fed got wrong.  Last week Powell made comments during a European Central Bank forum on bank policy, implying the absence of unvaccinated workers returning to the labor force is part of the US inflation problem.

Powell’s comments seem to align with the government vaccine mandate position which ignored the rights of the worker. Considering the responsibility of the Fed to anticipate price and labor issues, Powell’s sense of credulity toward those workers who dropped out of the labor force rather than inject an untested vaccine into their body is quite remarkable.  Inartful and arrogant are soft terms for his commentary.

However, there’s a bigger “tell” in the segment of what the Fed got wrong, when you listen to Powell talk about the supply side issues and how the Fed Reserve had no model to predict the mandated lockdowns, economic activity stoppages and consequences.   Notice how Powell completely dismisses the structural energy policy, the Build Back Better agenda, that lies at the heart of the current supply side inflation issue.  Video Prompted to 01:03:34, WATCH:

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Throughout the discussion the primary focus to control inflation is reliant on a demand side cause.   The goal to reduce demand is seen as a way to mitigate and reduce inflation.  Thus, this worldview, as mistaken as it was/is, explains the justification for why the Fed waited to increase interest rates.  They never saw the radical energy policy as a structural driver of supply side inflation.

According to Powell, they thought the supply side issues would moderate quickly, without giving any consideration at all to how a radically new energy policy would embed.  He just ignores the issue completely; again, pretending not to know.  But perhaps it’s actually worse.  Perhaps he really doesn’t see a radical new energy policy as a driving force behind current inflation.  If that’s true, and he genuinely does not see it, then Fed policy in the future is going to make the recession much worse.

If you ignore massive energy price impacts, the FED will keep interest rates high despite demand dropping, and then eventually get to a place where demand has dropped so low the recession is deep, while turning toward each other and asking why are prices still so high?

Keep that disconnect in mind.

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This administration is a lesson in abject silliness.  Everyone knows that Joe Biden has no clue who or what is being done in the energy policy of his administration; heck, he could not even name his Interior Secretary.   That said, whoever controls his Twitter account is now just making him look even more stupid as Biden blames the gas stations.

[Tweet Source]

I would draw attention to the most overlooked quote from Joe Biden as it pertains to gas prices.  This statement was made May 23, 2022, and it proves he knows the gas price is directly related to his choice to implement the Green New Deal by executive policy:

…”Here’s the situation.  And when it comes to the gas prices, we’re going through an incredible transition that is taking place that, God willing, when it’s over, we’ll be stronger and the world will be stronger and less reliant on fossil fuels when this is over.”…  [source]

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It is very curious timing in this article from Newsweek, containing massive geopolitical implications, using identified Saudi Arabia sources, would come in advance of Joe Biden’s visit to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Is this strategic geopolitical pressure from Saudi leader Mohamed Bin Salman (MbS) ahead of the meeting with Biden; or is this a genuine possibility that looms as likely?  If the former, then Joe Biden is being geopolitically slow roasted by Saudi Arabia for his previous disparagements and ideological hypocrisy in his visit.  If it is the latter, well, then the tectonic plates of international trade, banking and economics are about to shift directly under our American feet.

We have been closely monitoring the signs of a global cleaving around the energy sector taking place.  Essentially, western governments’ following the “Build Back Better” climate change agenda which stops using coal, oil and gas to power their economic engine, while the rest of the growing economic world continues using the more efficient and traditional forms of energy to power their economies.

This article from Newsweek is exactly about this dynamic with Saudi Arabia now potentially joining the BRICS team.

NEWSWEEK – Finland and Sweden’s green light to join NATO is set to bring about the U.S.-led Western military alliance’s largest expansion in decades. Meanwhile, the G7, consisting of NATO states and fellow U.S. ally Japan, has adopted a tougher line against Russia and China.

In the East, however, security and economy-focused blocs led by Beijing and Moscow are looking to take on new members of their own, including Iran and Saudi Arabia, two influential Middle Eastern rivals whose interest in shoring up cooperation on this new front could have a significant impact on global geopolitical balance.

The two bodies in question are the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS. The former was established in 2001 as a six-member political, economic and military coalition including China, Russia and the Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan before recruiting South Asian nemeses India and Pakistan in 2017, while the latter is a grouping of emerging economic powers originally consisting of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) upon its inception 2006, and including South Africa in 2010.

Here is the money quote:

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Keep all of the Biden administration visits to the Port of Los Angeles, Port of Long Beach and Port of Oakland in mind (aka the hide the ships program) as you review this pending issue with port labor unions.   The labor union contracts expired at 5:00pm today.  Massive wage increases, the result of inflation, are demanded by the unions and White House is likely to get involved (if they are not already).

In a very weird economic scenario, the Biden administration actually benefits from a port stoppage as imports are a deduction to GDP and the U.S. economy is presumably on the “zero” growth bubble.   If the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) calculates a negative GDP in the second quarter (not likely for political reasons), the Biden administration would officially be responsible for a recession.  [Any delay in import quantification helps shape the economic statistics; however, Q2 ended yesterday.]

Additionally, port infrastructure specialist, John D. Porcari, is part of the Biden administration economic team.  Porcari shaped the response to the import and supply chain crisis in 2021 that formed the hilarious ‘hide the ships’ strategy.   Porcari works to prop-up the insufferable Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg who has no idea what he’s doing.

CALIFORNIA – LOS ANGELES, July 1 (Reuters) – The contract covering more than 22,000 workers at 29 U.S. West Coast ports expires late on Friday, dialing up worries that labor disruption could roil the nation’s battered supply chains, stoke inflation and threaten a weakening economy.

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