Let it not be said that Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador (AMLO) does not understand what the Biden administration is attempting in the recent criticism and passive aggressive posturing toward Mexico.

Yesterday, AMLO was outlining a specific set of infrastructure initiatives that are ongoing.  Three new oil refineries together with new railroads and highways are under construction as the government continues positioning itself for energy independence. [Video Here]  However, it’s what he said after the energy remarks that’s really stunning.

The energy plan, which runs counter to the expressed demands of Canada and the United States, includes two regional ‘green’ refineries that will have the ability of turning used cooking oil into fuel.  However, the plan also includes new oil refinery capacity that will permit cheap gasoline independent of the need for Mexican oil to be refined in Texas and returned.

All of the refinery projects are on schedule to be completed by the end of this year and into 2024.  In essence, Mexico will have very cheap gasoline and diesel fuel in the near future.  This was previously outlined as a goal by AMLO in July 2022, and is against the interests the Biden administration.  Now those plans are becoming a reality.  Mexico is not joining the North American suicide mission of windmills, solar panels and reliance on unstable green energy.

Ever since the July 2022 Oval Office press conference at the White House, CTH has been saying to keep an eye on Mexico, because these energy plans align more with the BRICS nation agenda than the goals and objectives of the World Economic Forum (western nations).   It is not accidental the U.S. government, including our intelligence agencies and DHS, has been seeding a negative overall impression of Mexico ever since.

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Stunningly, the Polish Ambassador to France Jan Emeryk Rościszewski said yesterday: “Either Ukraine will defend its independence today, or we will be forced to enter into this conflict,” sending a clear message that NATO will enter the war against Russia if Ukraine loses ground.

Rościszewski essentially said the quiet part out loud, and that public statement immediately caused the NATO allies to recoil.  The EU NATO allies were not recoiling due to the substance of what he said, but rather because he said it publicly.  Keep in mind, Jan Emeryk Rościszewski has been Poland’s Ambassador to France for about a year, and before that he was the Chairman of the Board of PKO Bank Polski, Poland’s largest bank (WEF linkage).

The exact quote: “either Ukraine will defend its independence today, or we will have to enter this conflict. Because our main values, which were the basis of our civilization, and our culture will be threatened. Therefore, we will have no choice but to enter the conflict.”

The immediately triggered retreat by the EU IS HERE.  However, this statement happened on the same day Politico reported: “NATO is racing to arm its Russian borders. Can it find the weapons?”

[…] “Military leaders this spring will submit updated regional defense plans intended to help redefine how the alliance protects its 1 billion citizens. The numbers will be large, with officials floating the idea of up to 300,000 NATO forces needed to help make the new model work. That means lots of coordinating and cajoling. (link)

NATO wants to put 300,000 troops on Russia’s border, and yet they simultaneously pretend not to want an expanded war against Russia.

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Knowing, not predicting – knowing – the Biden economic policies were going to create massive U.S. inflation in the years to follow, in 2021 I pinned a tweet thread to the top of my timeline on the CTH Twitter account that could be used as a reference. [You Can Read Here] Not a single month of statistical data has come in the past two years that was not entirely predictable.  Today’s report from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) [DATA HERE] is no different.

Inflation is a measure of the change in a price. It is usually presented in terms of a percentage of change. When inflation starts to lessen, what that means is the rate of the price increase slows down. The price is still going up, but at a slower pace.

February prices overall increased 0.4% for the month, putting the current rate of annual inflation at 6.0%.  Meaning prices (on aggregate) are 6% higher than this exact same time last year.

Meanwhile, wages increased 0.2% for the month, and hours worked dropped 0.3% [DATA]. Wages only rising by half the rate of prices, and hours worked dropping, means the net ‘real wages’ declined, yet again, by 0.4%.

Workers are going backwards.

The very real impact on the working class is getting worse.  The blue collar team, who works for a living and does not take Instagram pictures of their lunches, are getting crushed in the Biden economy.  The divide between the ‘haves’ and the ‘have-nots’ is getting wider.

Put another way, Team MAGA, the entire continuum of normally apolitical working class, is watching the rust growing and feeling the worst part of the Biden economic outcome.  I have often spoken in my immediate circle of influence with the phrase, “financial anxiety is a very real concern the closer you get to the laundromat,” and many people have no idea what that means.

The biggest BS statement of the day goes to CNBC with this sentence:

“Inflation began rising in early 2021 due to a supply-and-demand imbalance. Now, it’s largely fueled by strong demand for labor, economists said.”  (link)

I challenge you to find a more encapsulating pile of horsepucky that represents the financial media era of great pretending.  When I read stuff like this, I begin to think the next great eruption of a violent war is getting even closer, and this war will have nothing to do with nations.

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This is huge in the geopolitical world.  China operated as a broker in the structurally unstable relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

• From the Iranian perspective – With a visibly weak U.S. president, and a strengthening Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping forming a close bond with Saudi Arabia, it makes sense for Iran to move toward diplomatic relations.
• From the Saudi Arabia perspective – With a visibly weak U.S. president, the prior assurances from Washington DC diminish, trust is tenuous, and a stronger hedge-based relationship with Chairman Xi is formed.
• From the Chinese perspective – With a visibly weak U.S. president, and a western alliance intended to destroy itself to fulfill the desires of the WEF climate change and cultural agenda, the opportunity to expand influence is teed up.

It will be intensely interesting to see how Israel positions itself w/ this new dynamic.

BEIRUT — Saudi Arabia and Iran announced an agreement in China on Friday to resume relations more than seven years after severing ties, a major breakthrough in a bitter rivalry that has long divided the Middle East.

The agreement was a result of talks in Beijing that began Monday as part of an initiative by Chinese President Xi Jinping aimed at “developing good neighborly relations” between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the three countries said in a joint statement. The agreement, which was signed by top Iranian security official Ali Shamkhani and Saudi national security adviser Musaed bin Mohammed al-Aiban, said embassies would be reopened within two months.

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It’s a local Florida story and multi-faceted. However, for the bigger national audience the issue that should be considered is that Ron DeSantis and the Florida Republican party took $9+ million in campaign contributions from state energy providers, then approved the biggest electricity rate hikes in Florida history.

Additionally, and more obscure in the outcome, the Public Service Commission (Public Utility Commission, or PUC), after being filled with DeSantis appointees, informed the electricity providers they no longer needed to report the number of residents who were disconnected from utility service due to nonpayment.

One could make the intellectual and political argument, the scale of disconnection -which is quite alarming- would be averse to the interests of Governor DeSantis seeking a higher office.

Like much of the country, electricity rates in Florida have skyrocketed with the increase in natural gas prices.  However, unlike much of the country, most Florida residents have only one option for electrical utility power.  The rate of disconnection in Florida amid lower income and working families is far greater than almost any other state.  Florida is quickly becoming a class-driven society with haves and have-nots.

FLORIDA –  […] In November 2021, Florida’s Public Service Commission (PUC) issued a memorandum allowing  electric utilities to stop disclosing their shutoff data. The memorandum, which reversed the commission’s September 2020 decision to collect the data to track the pandemic’s effects on utility customers, came after DeSantis stacked the board with his appointees. The move came less than a month after commission members approved the largest electric rate hike in Florida’s history, resulting in a 20 percent increase in costs to residential ratepayers.

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivers testimony today before the Senate Banking and Finance Committee.  During his statements Powell says, “The latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated.” Powell continued, “If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes.“… “We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting.” …  “Although inflation has been moderating in recent months, the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy.”

Everything about the testimony to the Senate, and almost everything within the questioning as presented, ignores the key and central component that inflation is being driven by energy policy.   The scale of the pretending around this issue is jaw dropping.

Western governments, including the U.S. through Joe Biden, have limited and curtailed the production and exploitation of Oil, Coal and Natural Gas.  At the core of the inflation within those same governments, this is the issue at hand.  Energy prices have skyrocketed, driving the cost of everything through the roof.  The central banks are raising interest rates in an attempt to shrink the economy to match the drop in energy production.   This is their monetary policy (interest rates) attempting to support economic policy (Green New Deal / Build Back Better).

There are no lines for consumers in the U.S and Europe of people buying durable goods, electronics or shopping for non-essential items.  Prices on the products within the durable goods economy are not being driven by excess consumer demand.  There are not 25% more people buying lemons and milk than this time last year.  The prices for goods in general, and for essential goods specifically, have risen as an outcome of the input costs around energy skyrocketing.

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Coming out of the pandemic related disruption, the larger story of U.S. manufacturing has been an odd blend of good data and bad data depending on the sector.  While some manufacturing was growing as a result of clearing supply chains, other sectors of manufacturing remained soft.

In total, the full supply chain rebound should have completed around the end of the third quarter, beginning of the fourth quarter of 2022.

However, simultaneous with the correction within the supply chain(s), consumer purchase activity began contracting.

The consumer pullback led to very weak holiday sales last year, and a combination of increased inventories of finished goods.

Keep in mind that Maersk overseas shipping noted significant drops in orders for the movement of material in the third quarter of last year.  Considering the lag, the previously noted inventory buildup in combination with the drops in unit sales of durable goods, would generally mean lower manufacturing purchase order activity Q4 (’22) and Q1 (’23).   This reality is reflected in the actual data as reported by The Wall Street Journal:

(Via WSJ) – […] New orders for manufactured goods contracted for the sixth straight month through February, according to surveys by the Institute for Supply Management. Manufacturing output is down 1.7% from its postpandemic peak in May 2022, according to a three-month moving average of Federal Reserve data. And the Commerce Department’s measure of civilian capital equipment orders, excluding aircraft—the building blocks of business—was down 3.4% in January from its recent high in November 2021, after adjusting for inflation.

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On July 31, 2022, According to Manchin a deal between himself, Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden included his support for the green energy spending bill, in exchange for two new items in future legislation: 1) Streamlined energy permitting/regulation; and 2) Increased development of Oil, Coal, Gas.  After getting his vote, Biden, Pelosi and Schumer reneged on the deal.

Today Senator Manchin inferred he wants that promise fulfilled in order to gain his support for a debt ceiling increase and a budget package. [Transcript Below]  Manchin also hedged on his own political aspirations for 2024, saying he will make a decision at the end of this year.   WATCH:

[Transcript] – SENATOR JOE MANCHIN: Good morning, Brennan. Thank — Margaret, thanks for having me.

MARGARET BRENNAN: I want to start on that derailment.

SENATOR JOE MANCHIN: Yes.

MARGARET BRENNAN: The president last week praised bipartisan railway safety legislation that would have new rules for trains carrying hazardous materials, increased fines for safety violations, phase in newer cars.

Will you vote for it? Is that sufficient?

SENATOR JOE MANCHIN: Yes, I’m going to be supporting that. We need to do it.

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Earlier today President Trump made a bold policy announcement, to create modern cities throughout the nation with the low cost use of a small portion of federally controlled land.  A massive investment in a new infrastructure initiative that would rebuild and reignite the America First economic engine. {Direct Rumble Link}

“President Trump unveiled his new Quantum Leap plan that will create a new American future and modernize communities across the country. By building new cities, investing in transportation, lowering the cost of living for everyone, and modernizing public spaces across the country, President Trump has laid out a bold strategy to revolutionize the American Standard of Living.” more

While almost every other political candidate debates the best process for dividing up diminishing economic pie, this initiative doesn’t make the pie bigger, it creates new ones.  This is bold leadership pushing the boundaries. WATCH:

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[Transcript] – Past generations of Americans pursued big dreams and daring projects that once seemed absolutely impossible. They pushed across an unsettled continent and built new cities in the wild frontier. They transformed American life with the interstate highway system—magnificent it was. And they launched a vast network of satellites into orbit all around the earth.

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It’s not just the United Kingdom, but as we await the latest figures from monthly U.S. data, the statistics from the U.K. are hitting the newswires.  According to Reuters, food inflation in the U.K. is currently 17.1%  The primary driver of the skyrocketing food costs is the energy cost associated with the fast turnover categories.

With prices increasing 17.1% yet net sales only increasing 8.1%, there is a substantial impact in unit food sales.  British customers are buying much less to offset the fact they are paying much more.   This trend is not just in the U.K. we have seen the same trend in U.S. data as families are being squeezed at the grocery store.

The prices on name branded products like Kraft and Heinz are leading the escalating food prices. Just last week I noticed 6oz Kraft Philadelphia cream cheese was $6.99, and a 24 oz. bottle of Heinz ketchup at over $8.  Dairy products are leading the way with the most rapid increases in price.  It appears that we are entering the fourth wave of food inflation currently.

LONDON, Feb 28 (Reuters) – British grocery inflation hit 17.1% in the four weeks to Feb. 19, another record high, dealing the latest blow to consumers struggling with a cost-of-living crisis, industry data showed on Tuesday.

Market researcher Kantar said prices are rising fastest in markets such as milk, eggs and margarine. It said UK households now face an additional 811 pounds ($978) on their annual shopping bills if they don’t change their behaviour to cut costs.

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