The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their first quarter estimate of economic growth [DATA HERE] and the result of 1.1% growth shows how the U.S. economy has become dependent on government spending money we don’t have. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calculation is a valuation of all goods and services created within the U.S. economy, minus the value of goods and services imported.
Keep in mind that all calculations are in dollar terms. Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) prices increased 4.2% in the first quarter after increasing 3.7% in the fourth quarter. Excluding food and energy, the PCE “core” price index increased 4.9% after increasing 4.4%. Two-thirds of the increased spending on goods was driven by higher prices, only one third by consumers purchasing more stuff.
Looking at Table 2 (the percentage change by sector) the increase in prices provided 2.48% lift to the GDP but the actual purchasing of goods only delivered 1.45%. Meanwhile the decline in inventories subtracted 2.26% from the GDP, a major factor, and domestic investment has dropped subtracting 2.34%.
Government expenditures (+0.81) drove more than 70% of the total GDP growth as national defense spending (Ukraine War) was a major federal component. The local and state government spending increase was driven by higher wage rates. Don’t forget there’s $2.2 trillion in Inflation Reduction Act (Green New Deal) spending that is also within the economy.
Overall, this is a dark picture. Inflation is still raging. Inventories are dropping as consumer purchasing is squeezed, and replacements goods are not being manufactured. Companies are tightening their belts. The federal government is spending to try and assist the economy, but the private sector is contracting economic activity.
When households evaluate their checkbooks, a Biden administration claim of a growing economy falls flat – because the only part of the economy that is growing is the part that fuels the energy and security needs of Europe. Main Street USA is suffering through the massive inflation that Joe Biden has created, and purchases of anything other than necessities have come to a near halt.
and it’s not just the US economy that is starting to implode and being the inevitable free fall.
samsung? yikes….overproduction to meet a demand that never happened…that company will be lucky to exist in a year from now. That’s a huge blow to Korea. Notice the recent “visit” by joe malarkey just prior to the samsung financial report! Yeah, nothing helps a decline korean economy than talking up more defensive weapons programs against little kim.
also first republic…another bank about to swirl the toilet rim
what does samsung and first republic (and SVB ) have in common…tech specific and ‘venture” capitol investors..who scrambled as quickly as possible to go to cash and withdrawal.
the world NEEDS PRESIDENT TRUMP. Even if the world can’t stand the man, THE WORLD NEEDS HIS POLICIES to restore markets.
It has to be one of his single most effective promises…proven to be a problem solver.
It’s going to be alot more difficult this time though. Joe Malarkey has created such huge mess. This time around, President Trump will have to assemble his A team again and fine tune his America First ALONG WITH a global market leadership plan….we just cannot allow the rest of the world to sink…..we are facing a serious global crisis…and even if President Trump can restore the US domestic economy, we will need a stronger and more stable global market. he can do that. It’s is possible. it will take at least 2 full terms and a deep commitment. BUT NO MORE FOREIGN AID AND BILLIONS TRANSFERRED TO DEAD PROJECTS. Ukraine and Russia will need President Trump to give them both an option that cannot refuse. Exercising his power as a established business genius will prove to be the way out of this war and the looming nuclear war.
God Bless America
The media “news” executives and organizations need to be removed from influence…the so called “intelligence” agencies need reaming out and hollowing due to their absolute corruption.. the downfall of our nation began with the OSS….
Allen Dulles was no hero…
It’s the only way forward, fully agree. This Canadian is praying for that ♡♡♡
Screwing our military over again. Do not let your people join, even if you have to duct tape them down.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/army-aviators-ready-leave-military-230303146.html
Yikes, three years is long added duty time to be slapped onto their mustering out date. Keep your kids home!
Getting paid to train as a pilot is one of the best gigs out there. Ask the infantry if they feel sorry for these guys.
All wars are about competition and production…the side that can produce more is always going to win….
Washington D.C. politicians have taken bribes….re-labeled as lobbies…to sell out our nation…our republic…for their own selfish ends.
Our United States of America is in desperate need of a purge of leftist forces and entities arrayed against our nation…media…congress and industry executives stand against our nation
We have been conquered…we have been deceived…we have been wounded and our enemies are circling us surely as sharks circle their prey.
Our only hope is competent and uncompromised leadership or Devine intervention…..
The Left will lead us to destruction as demonstrated by their rise and rule culminating in election theft in 2020….we need…
Donald John Trump
We got our electric bill… used about 800 KwH in one month… not bad for a five bedroom home with three people.
The bill?
THREE HUNDRED BUCKS.
Oh, we’re in SoCal.
Same here, Orange County, $300. We have made adjustments by not driving much and not spending much. Luckily we have shopped needed items through the past 3 years. Hope it helps. AC is going to go through the roof this summer.
Depending on the house and location it can be worth it to explore solar. Particularly in sun rich Southern California.
We recently instaled solar panels and already produce more energy that consumed. The electricity bill is just to repay the loan for the panels, which is less than before and in 5 yeats we’ll pay just $10/month.
If one examines the historical graphical materials available on the Federal Reserves “FREDGRAPH” graphical site, one can easily see why “budgets” are never ever passed formally. They borrow and spend as much as they need to in order to make GDP appear to continue “growing”. Every time tbere is a “recession”, the rate of federal debt accumulation increases proportionally. This graph is approaching vertical.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN
That list of spending on a an opinion is mind boggling.
Don’t you just love government controlled economic activity?
Don’t be surprised if the 1st quarter number is revised downward by the BEA later next month and released on a Friday night. Remember, the Dems, media and Biden regime no longer define a recession as two negative quarters of GDP growth.
The GDP?
.7% is more like it.
whatever is published is a lie by omission.
meanwhile a year ago the ibond interest rate, based (upon CPI)was 9.6%
Every 6 mo. it recalibrates
in November 2022, it was 6.4%
may ‘23 is estimated at 3.38% based on the March 2023 CPI data released April 12.
The fix is in.
You no longer can trust the feds to make personal monetary investment ..”and be happy”.
Try JEPI
On a personal note Milley looks like a Batman villain character.
Almost an overdone one.
Look at his expression he looks cross eyed, robot like.
CTH, am a huge fan and follower. You are awesome at Nat Sec and related. Economy is not your forte and you can’t be all things to all people so don’t try.
Opinions will vary, but the Q1 report was weak but fine. For example Moody’s did not move off its view that 2023 will be a year of slow growth but no recession. You would expect Moody’s would not hesitate to say the sky is falling.
Plenty of folks have other views of course but you weaken your authority wading into this area.