A few days after the terror attack of 9-11-01, someone in media asked George W. Bush what Americans can do to help. Dubya’s response drew instant criticism, because he asked people to go shopping… but in the big picture, President Bush knew what could happen if the economic freeze continued.
When it comes to politics and economic outlooks, trust your instincts. The economics of the ‘thing’ is always the reason the ‘thing’ exists or does not exist.
When you are looking at economic news, always remind yourself… the people producing the news have a vested interest in maintaining a very specific outlook. The motive behind what Dubya said in September of 2001, pertains every bit as much today. Economic outcomes can topple entire governments.
Remember, this current ‘supply-side energy policy driven inflation‘, a purposeful effort to shrink the economy and yet tenuously maintain control, has never happened before. The people behind the Build Back Better agenda are, in reality, experimenting with a theory. DATA…
(ISM) – The Institute for Supply Management’s PMI contracted for the fifth straight month in March registering 46.3, the lowest level since May 2020. Any reading below 50.0 indicates contraction. The employment index declined by 2.2 percent to a level of 46.9.
Most of the impediments to manufacturing growth — such as shortages and lockdowns — have subsided, said Tim Fiore, chair of the ISM’s manufacturing survey committee, with the exception of pricing. ISM’s pricing index fell below 50 in March but at 49.2 remains higher than pre-pandemic levels.
“The beginning of the second half may not be the beginning of a recovery,” said Fiore. “Manufactures reduced headcounts because of uncertainty of demand and over-ordering has burned off. Demand isn’t coming back quickly enough to support current headcounts.”
All these trends were prevalent in March, he added, although the PMI has only lost 3 to 4 points since October 2022.
Back in December, ISM panelists anticipated an uptick in demand by the beginning of Q2. “We thought this recovery would be lumpy, but I think this indicates the recovery has been delayed,” Fiore said. “I think we are talking about expansion toward the end of Q3—it’s unlikely we’ll see a lot of activity in the summer.” (read more)
It’s not a recovery now, it will not be a recovery this year.
On a per unit basis, we have been in an economic contraction cycle since mid 2021. However, because economic outcomes are measured in dollars, the shrinking unit output, and the fewer units being sold at wholesale and retail level, is being hidden.
Inflation has hidden serious drops in unit purchases…. and fewer unit purchases mean lowered production output…. and lowered production output means less production is needed.
(CNBC SURVEY) – Inflation, economic instability and a lack of savings have an increasing number of Americans feeling financially stressed.
Some 70% of Americans admit to being stressed about their personal finances these days and a majority — 52% — of U.S. adults said their financial stress has increased since before the Covid-19 pandemic began in March 2020, according to a new CNBC Your Money Financial Confidence Survey conducted in partnership with Momentive.
Anxious and uncertain about whether they can get a better handle on their money, some may be intimidated by the prospect of creating a budget or unsure of where to stash their cash to get the highest returns. Others may be wondering how to begin saving for retirement when they’ve gotten off to a late start.
“People are worried that the money they’ve saved won’t last and are worried they’re going to have to lean more on their credit cards and other sources of debt just to get by,” said Bruce McClary, a senior vice president at the National Foundation for Credit Counseling. (read more)
If you want to know what’s going on in the larger U.S. economy, just look around you.
Don’t turn on the television and read the newspaper to see what is happening in the U.S. economy for your purchasing or life planning. Just look around you.
Look at restaurants and bars. Do you see continued high-volume business or not.
Look at the grocery stores. Do you see continued optimism, or not.
Look at the malls and shopping centers. Do you see foot traffic, or not.
Look at the real estate in your neighborhood – your local view. Do you see prices going up or going down.
That’s the reality of the economy as it impacts you….. and critically, that’s the reality of the economy nationwide.
When it comes to data and economics, do not let the media created ‘illusion of the thing‘ cloud your ability to see the reality of the thing.
Trust your instincts.
I’m kind of benefiting from this economy. Over the past 15 years i bought 3 properties all houses, 2 with arcerage, one on a lake. First one i paid $25,000 cash. house on 3 acres 3br. 2nd one i bought at auction for $18,000 cash, house in town, 2 br, and at a sheriffs auction i bought a 4 br lake house on 2.5 acres for $20,000. cash.
The assessed values were going up before the housing market exploded from repairs and increases in the property values, but this last 3 years has made these homes a major portion of my retirement portfolio. Yes other costs have gone up, but the increase in market value for this properties offset them biggly.
Where do u live ? In my neck of the woods, a run down single story house on a small lot is half a million $$
The average rent for a one-bedroom is about $2000. Canadian dollars
A relative was interested in a 5 bedroom house on several acres near the Great Lakes. Small town. Listed around 375K, then marked down to 300K. My relative got it for 160K.
In the suburbs of NYC, houses for $400k have lines of interested parties 20+ long and will receive 20 offers and sell 10% higher than asking…cash. Selling in a weekend! Now.
So…..demand is high…..supply is low…..and most importantly interest is high and people are buying.
Food is overall 30-50% higher than 2 years ago. Stores are packed and people buying prepared meals. Lunch sandwich is $10.
Clothing is being bought at low end stores and ladies wearing stretchy pants mostly.
Going to a NY Yankee game will cost $150/per person on average.
2 drinks each/shared app/hamburgers $100 w/tip at local bar/restaurant. Restaurants are full and so are bar stools.
So inflation is high but folks are still spending.
Always been good insurance to OWN property, now they are talking about siezing personal property including farms for GREEN projects…it’s all unknown…
At the rate things are going I’m not confident I’ll be able to afford or find a gasoline fueled car in the future.
EV’s are out and I will NOT accept that elitist trash.
At least the dear leaders of the state will keep the state run liquor stores open so I can buy Woodford Reserve and cigars.
Dilley Dilley 300 meme team, Sundance, and Hulkamania, brother.
PS, I’m still unvaxxed.
If I didn’t still have a mortgage payment for the next 15 to 21 months (I may pull some money out of savings to pay it early), I would buy a second used car right now in case something happens to the one I have
Find yourself a used hybrid Camry or Accord.
They really are quite good and even more reliable than the reputations of the gas models. Hybrids are built differently in that they don’t have cam belts, or any accessory belts. The transmissions don’t have gears but they aren’t the “Normal” CVTs used in other cars which generally suck. These work well and they are bulletproof.
…and I’m a “car” guy/enthusiast.
Anyway, they are a great car for just basic transportation.
Nah hybrids suck. I’ve had one. Once the hybrid battery goes which they always do you can’t just go to Autozone, Pepboys, or NAPA and pick one of the shelf like a regular car battery. The hybrid batteries can cost anywhere of more than $10,000 to replace and they have to be specially made. Hybrid batteries are also lithium ion batteries, and have been known to catch on fire and also lose power. So please stay away from hybrid cars especially used ones just get a gasoline powered car until they no longer exist.
Pretty much, if any of those things happen – and they do, it is rare.
No fan of the forced EV changeover the government has us on, but hybrids are a great middle ground for many if not most people.
So in my immediate surroundings, maybe a twenty mile radius, here’s what I see most recently. Gas has gone up about 30 cents. Meat prices are about the same but people are taking care to check the prices carefully before selecting what they want/can afford. Cleaning supplies continue to rise in price. Paper goods continue to rise in price – toilet paper rolls are a 1/2″ narrower too. Produce and dairy seem stable in price. Pizza, snacks and other garbage food continues to rise. Seafood continues to rise. Coupons are almost laughable now – used to get a dollar off of one, but now you have to buy three. I don’t need any home improvements done, but I don’t see as many vans/trade vehicles driving around either. Junk mail begging for donations/support is definitely on the rise. Local animal shelters are full – that one makes me really sad.
The animal shelters are full everywhere, I think.
I’ve heard that people are taking their pets to shelters but they’re full and can’t take them. People are leaving their pets in shelter parking lots. 😢
I have thought that maybe the wild beasts of Revelation 6:8 are newly feral dog packs created by people dumping their animals during hyperinflation.
I wonder if the numbers of spayed and neutered pets have gone down because people want to cut expenses (no pun intended).
Not spaying or neutering your pet is likely to cost you more in the long run. Health issues like cancer are much more prevalent in unfixed pets and unwanted litters of mutts can be hard to get rid of and cost a lot of money while you have them.
If you can’t afford a pet, don’t get one, remember dogs average a 14 year commitment, and end of life is not cheap today either. Having a pet put down and cremated is very expensive today. The days when you shot your old or sick pet are over, you will be arrested and prosecuted for animal abuse.
An in-office euthanasia will usually range in cost from $50 to $150, depending on the location and size of the dog.
How Much Do Pet Euthanasia and Cremation Cost?
Group cremation typically costs between $5 to $150
Individual cremation…the cost will be higher; at around $150 to $300, depending on location and size of the animal
Average price of a car is now the median salary, meaning new cars will be just like new houses: only the upper classes can afford them. Yet automakers are making more money than ever on each unit sold.
That’s where we’re headed. Cuba, Venezuela, East Germany etc.
I usually keep my cars a long time and take care of them. About fifteen years. Bought a new one just as the lockdowns were about to start, so less wear and tear. A few months left to finish the payments.
I live in a nice gated townhouse complex in the suburbs. Spacious, adult oriented. Been here since it was new. But after seventeen years we were assessed for new roofs. $15,000. Each unit. Only a few months warning and money had to be available in that time frame. The council were thorough, did their job,but it still was an unexpected surprise. Lucky that I am cautious in general and was prepared for something like this. But it illustrates how suddenly things can happen.
Because I’m unvaxxed I am not allowed into the U.S.
This has saved a lot of vacation money indirectly. I now travel to nice nature spots on this side of the border.
I used to vacation in the beach communities of Orange County every year. Newport, Huntington,Dana Point and between there and San Diego. I had a great time at the surfing championships, going to Angels and Ducks games and enjoying the ambiance. I rarely even went into L.A. unless it was for an event like a Brian Wilson concert or a USC football game.
And was obligated to visit cousins. One of whom was conservative. Another couple worked in the fringes of the entertainment industry and of course were radically woke. Those were during the Trump years, so my conservative cousin was able to trigger his left wing sister. But at this point I doubt I would feel comfortable under the current regime. Even if I was allowed in.
For years I had a long term financial plan. In theory things would be on track still. But with all the radical and disastrous policies in the western world, who knows?
Bars and Restaurants are full, malls are packed, housing is strong (House Listed for $518,000 sold in 2 days) Construction has not stopped, large commercial and residential developments are moving forward (Cosco is clearing land) I dont know what to believe.
Where are you? And who exactly is doing the building? And for whom?
In Colorado, housing is still fairly strong, but friends in real estate suggest it is not Coloradans buying the houses, maybe not even Americans. Construction is strong if you count all the apartment buildings going up all over, but nobody explains who wants these apartments, especially as schools are closing, which they blame on depopulation. They’re supposed to solve the homeless problem, but I haven’t seen where even I could afford these apartments. Many friends with larger families have moved away over past years, because it was too expensive here for a large family.
When we’ve gone to restaurants, which isn’t often, they seem to be barely hanging on to profitability. I wouldn’t know if malls are packed, but lots of businesses still have “now hiring” signs and many places have reduced hours because of not being able to fully staff. It’s a nice time and place to be a halfway responsible teenager – everyone wants to hire you. I don’t think that indicates a strong economy, though – sounds more like Ed Dowd’s explanation of so many people quietly dead and disabled that there aren’t enough people for the jobs.
In AZ, yes. restaurants full, real estate active, stores active, but we still shake our heads at how much everything costs. Rather than go out and spend 100-200 for a great dinner, just make our own great dinner, wine, etc. for less than half the cost. Reminds me of 2008-2009….restaurants were all full despite everyone’s equity getting crushed. We couldn’t figure it out then, and we can’t figure it out now.
Folks are living off their credit cards.
……some folks are living off their credit cards….
I pay cash for it or realize I don’t need it.
Same.
From the CV lockdowns – people are going to go out. They are over not doing anything.
What I have noticed is there is not a lot of shopping happening in the malls though. I do see a lot of people walking around and eating though
When it collapses it will be immediate. It won’t be over six months or a year, it will be 30 days and we’ll have nothing. They’ll confiscate all 401k’s, cash in banks and convert it to a digital currency that they control. You won’t own a car because 50% of America won’t be able to afford them. The fact that there isn’t enough lithium or rare earth metals to make a EV for everyone is their plan. Everyone won’t have a car. You’ll be in 15 minute city/neighborhoods and if you venture out it sill cost you all in the need to save the environment. Madness is going to be codified making abortion laws seem logical. The Tranny debacle currently strangling the west is the fist symptom of the fever that will consume us all.
Remember to have a strong relationship with God, Jesus, your Higher Power. When the inside is right with God, the outside is more tolerable.
Nothing in this sorry world matters in the long run, except our souls. Focus on what is real, not engineered, manipulated, psy-opped. God is in His heaven, and will deal with these demon possessed thieves and murderers. Control what you can, but pray.
“Turn your eyes upon Jesus
Look full in His wonderful face
And the things of earth will grow strangely dim
In the light of His glory and grace”
I think you are right.
I won’t be in a 15 minute city. You sound so passive.
For goodness sake, try to channel John Adams or Thomas Jefferson. Don’t accept their terms or their plans.
I don’t fully disagree w your assessment Michael Huye.
My contention since the 2020 election has been “when the pain reaches the level that indies n bottom dwelling Dems get vengeful” is when “something” will happen.
I don’t believe in the Civil War 2.0 predictions but I do believe the “something” that happens will not involve an election.
I know – y’all are thinking I’m some crystal ball soothe sayer but I’m not. I’m a voracious reader and have thousands of data points. Just can’t put all the dots together.
I’ll admit – I could be the victim of the Psyop being played by the Powers To Be.
But I just don’t believe the Psyop is affecting my reasoning to a significant degree.
Love the inflation stats of 8% when everything is 30 to 50% more expensive.
I bought a 8oz bag of potato chips for $6 the other day.
Gee, soon we may have to buy by the chip.
Inflation will destroy the Low, Middle and Upper Class.
—-
The Dollar will no longer be the ‘World’s Reserve Currency’.
I just spent 2 weeks in a nice wealthy suburban enclave then came back to blue collar reality. What I am seeing is a growing chasm between the well to do and the middle classes. The well to do are living large with some worries about rising costs but it is easily affordable. The middle classes are cutting back but still going out to dinner. What I saw both places is fear and a sense of unease at what is happening.
So I realized things didn’t make sense in the fall of 2008.
I was actually in DC promoting what is now the Artemis program.
The aid of a rep I was presenting to just happened to be on the banking committee.
She told me her rep just came out of a committee meeting and her face was white.
That meeting was after the Congress rejected the bailout.
In short they banks told them ATMs would work on Monday.
They didn’t reject it a second time.
Since that time I have been preparing as best I could.
I’m smack in the middle of flyover country, outside the Kansas City metro area on the Kansas side. I get together with a group of girlfriends to catch up every 3 to 4 months. We usually go to dinner at one of two restaurants. We used to get on the waitlist, and felt pressure to hurry up and eat so they could turn the table. That was pre-covid. Now we are often one of the few tables and can linger and talk as long as we like, despite being there on a Saturday night at 6 pm during the dinner rush.
We have many local restaurants and chains in the area who have gone under. Others have reduced their hours and days open. Staff shortages are common, and it’s obvious in the quality of service. The remaining staff are trying, there’s just not enough of them.
I work for the federal government (prefer not to say where, but one of the only federal agencies I could ever support). We are having trouble finding employees. HR is so short staffed that new hires find other jobs before their start dates, so only half of the new trainees even show up. Many don’t last 6 months before they quit. I have trained the same positions repeatedly. These are good paying jobs with federal benefits that offer telework and don’t require a college degree. It’s kind of scary. We’ve had so many long timers retire early or leave due to health issues, and more have “died suddenly.” I blame LGBFJB for that. His vax mandate is hurting us. I got a religious exemption, but most people couldn’t withstand the pressure. I was prepared to be fired.
We went to the movies recently, first time since 2019. The theater was empty. On a Saturday. $80 for the family including stale popcorn. Never again.
Grocery store bills have doubled in the last two years in this area. (I still see people wearing masks to shop.)
It’s going to get much worse. I try to warn people, to suggest they prepare, but hardly anyone is listening.
Get right with God, that’s all that matters.
It blows my mind every time I go household and grocery prices
Trucking is the barometer by which to measure the US economy. I’m in trucking, and it’s ugly. Load volumes are down significantly, customers are now demanding deep rate cuts, all while operating costs exploded in early COVID and have not eased.
Six months from now, when the Talkers talk of recession, you can say you read it here first! We’re in a recession.
We’ve been in one for at least a year now.
A friend inherited a few bucks and I had been telling him for a while that my savings has been in stocking up and
Stacking metals.
I have been telling him what is going on.
He told me last week he invested in some high interest cd’s the bank was pushing on him
It was such a great deal!
And he would make a bunch of interest off it AND
He declared to me (like a dig)
That the bank told him his money would always be SAFE FDIC blah blah blah.
I just looked and him and smirked and didn’t even
have the heart to tell him about the pocket full of silver I had just bought.
Reality is going to be a hard lesson for most.
right now, seems like it depends on where you live. States like Florida, South Carolina and Tennessee et al… are enjoying some growth due to influx of blue state escapees. Still, easy to see the price increases and the pressures that that puts on small businesses. The ones that survived the scamdemic.
Get out of debt as quickly as you can and remain debt free. Downsize if necessary. (Not counting routine monthly expenses.)
I made some poor spending choices in the 1st 10 years, or so, after we were married. We got into more credit card and auto loan debt than I liked. This happened twice.
After that 2nd time, we got dug our way out of the credit card debt, and from that point forward we handled it by (1) being careful about what we bought on credit and (2) paying the debt off before incurring more debt.
I was able to retire earlier than most. Before retirement, I knew that we needed to be debt free. There was no point in going into retirement owing anything to anyone.
We do not live extravagantly. We downsized from a larger home to a townhouse condo. We have two cars, our daily driver, and an older low-mileage backup. We live off of our monthly retirement income and do not have to touch our savings.
We are not wealthy, or even well off (at least in the worldly sense)
I have been retired for 15 years now. Making sure we did whatever was necessary to be (and remain) debt free was the best decision we ever made.
My example was my parents and most of my aunts and uncles on both sides of the family and my grandparents on both sides. Almost all of them were completely debt free when they retired. My younger brother is also completely debt free.
“On a per unit basis, we have been in an economic contraction cycle since mid 2021. However, because economic outcomes are measured in dollars, the shrinking unit output, and the fewer units being sold at wholesale and retail level, is being hidden. Inflation has hidden serious drops in unit purchases…. and fewer unit purchases mean lowered production output…. and lowered production output means less production is needed.”
Exactly what I’ve been saying for months when people say the economy is good, GDP is growing. It’s not. Spending more due to inflation and buying less actual units. We don’t go out much, older so don’t need to buy a lot, mainly groceries. And we ALL know those prices have skyrocketed. Went to Publix this Monday, $80 for 2 small bags, maybe 4 dinners. FJB.
Trust your instincts when it comes to anything coming out of this fake administration.
Not just economics.