BASELINE – Boil all international and geopolitical issues down to their common denominator and everything, E.V.E.R.Y.T.H.I.N.G., every issue, every discussion, every policy, every position, everything -all of it- circles around economics. Everything is secondary to the underlying economics of every single issue. Power or weakness, famine or war, peace or conflict, master or servant, culture or crisis, growth or collapse, the entirety of everything -including the foundation of freedom- centers around the economics.  There are trillions at stake.

In this interview Finland’s President Sauli Niinistö made some very interesting remarks when asked about his decision to reverse the long-established geopolitical position of Finland and join the “western alliance,” vis-a-vis NATO.

Listen carefully [01:44] when President Niinistö explains why.  Niinistö explains he did not, and does not, consider Russia a threat; however, “what we see now, Europe, the world, is more divided. There’s not very much room for ‘non-aligned,’ in-between. So that was also what we are thinking.”  WATCH:

In March of this year CTH noted, “this intentional global cleaving, using the opportunity created by the Ukraine crisis, is going to be the major story of this year.  This global splitting can be looked at in multiple ways, but the overarching story is the ramifications of two global trade relationships.”

Two world groupings.  One group, oil-based energy (traditional, grey on map below), and one group GREEN energy (the build back better plan, yellow on map).  It is not accidental these two groups hold similar internal geopolitical views and perspectives, hence, their alignment or lack thereof with the sanctions against Russia.

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In April India said it was hoping to expand its wheat exports from 7 million tons to 10 million.  However, as precarious winter wheat harvests reflect lower outputs, they are reversing position and will now block any wheat exports in order to ensure their own supply.

INDIA – […] The announcement drew sharp criticism from the Group of Seven industrialized nations’ agriculture ministers meeting in Germany, who said that such measures “would worsen the crisis” of rising commodity prices.

“If everyone starts to impose export restrictions or to close markets, that would worsen the crisis,” German Agriculture Minister Cem Ozdemir said at a press conference in Stuttgart.

Global wheat prices have soared on supply fears following Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine, which previously accounted for 12% of global exports.

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As we contemplate the massive $40 billion transfer of U.S. taxpayer funds to Ukraine, a few things need to be emphasized.

First, congress has decided to pay the salaries, benefits and pensions of Ukraine political officials and citizens.  As U.S. citizens try and figure out how to afford housing, gasoline, food and basic goods, congress has decided to subsidize another country.  That’s the first point.

Second, as to the pragmatic question of “to what end?” There was a critical point made last week by Defense Intel Agency (DIA) Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, that not a single media outlet or politician discussed.  During his briefing to the Senate Armed Services Committee, Berrier was asked “can Ukraine win” the conflict against Russia?

Lt. General Berrier replied: “That is a difficult predication to make. I think where the assessment is at, is a prolonged stalemate should no factor change on either side. In other words, the Russians continue to do what they’re doing, and we continue to do what we are doing for the Ukranians.”  WATCH:

The Pentagon assessment is the best that can be achieved is a stalemate.  Billions of billions of dollars being poured into Ukraine, and the most likely outcome is a stalemate.  More people killed, an endless need for continued money to be poured into the ‘war’, and the best possible outcome is a stalemate.

So, riddle me this, why isn’t the U.S. policy position advocating for Zelenskyy and Putin to enter negotiations for a resolution?

What possible U.S. interest can be advanced, knowing the only outcome is a stalemate, where people are killed on either side and money spent on a proxy conflict that ends in loggerheads at some distant point months from now?

Also, why has no U.S. media outlet or pundit played the remarks and assessment from the Defense Intelligence Agency, so that the American people can understand the intent of U.S. policy?

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Comrade taxpayers, as the glorious and esteemed senate move through the procedural hurdles to pass a massive $40 billion spending bill for the U.S. altruistic Ukraine money laundering operation, a fabulous diplomatic envoy consisting of Mitch McConnell, John Barrasso, John Cornyn and Susan Collins travel to Kyiv to meet the magnanimous defender of the international treasury and wealth transfer operation, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The magnificent republican leaders went to visit the nicest war zone their bipartisan efforts have created in the past four decades.  As the angels of abundance parted the clouds, many congratulations were shared from the delegation toward their generous host and the expressions of appreciation and respect for the generosity were reciprocated.  WATCH:

No U.S. border security, no gas money, no grocery money, no infant formula, no voting integrity…. Meh, no problem comrades.  We’ve got Ukrainians to support.  We are paying the pensions and benefits of Ukraine government officials and Ukraine citizens.

Keep in mind, the politicians are not tone deaf, out of touch or disconnected; they simply do not care.  We The People are irrelevant to them.

We are in an abusive relationship with our own government.

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Tucker Carlson did a pretty decent job tonight outlining the current issues with shortages of baby formula and why it is specifically galling for the Joe Biden administration to claim they don’t know anything about the problem they helped create.  WATCH:

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Earlier today ultra-MAGA representative Marjorie Taylor Greene delivered remarks about the failures of the Biden administration as they are reflected in the continual food security and pricing crisis.   I strongly recommend watching these brief remarks, very impressive.

MTG accurately identifies the origin of the current baby formula crisis, as an outcome of stress within the supply chain caused by government intervention into the overall system.  MTG then notes that FDA rules and regulations make supply interruptions worse.

Additionally, in the background of the federal DHS and HHS contracts for food products, including baby food/formula, most of those federal contracts contain a ‘first right‘ or ‘prioritized continuity‘ provision, creating a distribution outcome (via contractual mandate) where illegal aliens end up with preferential allocation.  WATCH (2:55 mins):

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Senator Rand Paul has blocked a fast-track senate vote on the additional $40 billion funding package created by Joe Biden and House Democrats.  Both Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell approved a fast-track vote; however, senator Rand Paul (KY) stood defiant against their effort.

Despite the high-profile pressure from the two Senate leaders, Rand Paul refused to move and that means the Senate will have to take procedural steps to overcome his objection, which could take several days. “My oath of office is the US constitution not to any foreign nation and no matter how sympathetic the cause, my oath of office is to the national security of the United States of America,” Paul said in his remarks before objecting to moving to swift passage of the bill. “We cannot save Ukraine by dooming the US economy.” WATCH:

The $40 billion supplemental spending bill for Ukraine is more than the total military budget of Russia.  The combined Ukraine aid packages now exceed $60 billion, more than the entire budget for the U.S. Dept of Homeland Security including border protection.

Rand Paul is on the right side of history with his position, and the overwhelming majority of Americans agree with him.   However, the opinion of the people is irrelevant to the Senate.   Even democrat Senator Chuck Schumer seemed to admit this point when he said Rand Paul’s position “was not the opinion of the overwhelming majority here,” meaning in the senate.  Schumer would have used other terms if he thought the American people agreed with him.  They don’t, and he knows it.

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The “Producer Price Index” (PPI) is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released April price data [Available Here] showing another 11.0% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.

Last month when looking at internal economic activity that showed a contraction in consumer purchases of goods, we said pay attention to the service side of the ledger now.  Knowing people have stopped buying ‘stuff’, if people are starting to run out of money, they will cut back in the service sector (dining out, etc).

While the PPI focuses on prices, the PPI data for April shows exactly that service side contraction now taking place.  Wholesale inflation in goods is determined heavily by higher costs for raw materials and processing.  However, the rate of inflation within the service sector is more connected to what consumers can afford.   Modified Table-A, look at the April difference between goods (1.3%) and services (0.0%):

[Ex. The lawn company might pay 50% more for oil and gasoline (goods side), but they may not be able to increase the rate they charge you by 50% to mow the grass (service side).]

The major current production inflation in both goods and services is directly connected to the cost of energy.  Energy prices are embedded in every sector of the economy.  For “goods” higher electricity, heating/cooling and petroleum costs (packaging, materials, transportation, etc) are unavoidable and passed on to consumers. For “services,” individuals and companies raise their prices to compensate for increases in their own costs.  It is a cumulative inflation snowball.

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It has often been said that if you chase the global climate change ideology to its natural conclusion, we end up in communal groups sitting around a tepid campfire eating some form of sustainable algae cakes and picking parasites off each other…  Prior to Joe Biden that prediction might have seemed like hyperbole. Now, not so much.

Indeed, the Green New Deal energy policy of Joe Biden creates massive downstream consequences.  Unfortunately, the White House doesn’t seem to care. The high prices and scarcity of critical goods are a feature, not a flaw, as they chase their climate friendly Build Back Better agenda.

Following the continuum of intended consequence, now we have diesel fuel shortages beginning to hit the U.S. economy; and with scarcity comes higher prices of an almost astronomical scale. “The national average price of diesel is now $5.54 per gallon, which is an increase of 22 cents from last week, which was when the most recent record was set. Data shows there’s no state that’s currently seeing diesel prices below $5.12 per gallon.” (LINK)

Making matters even worse is a drop in available inventory of diesel fuel which is about to become a crisis for the east coast of the U.S.  Some Truck Stop operators like Love’s and Pilot are already warning their big rig customers they may not have fuel for truckers.

[…] “Love’s is monitoring the fluid situation on the East Coast, we have experienced minimal outages during low traffic hours,” Oklahoma-based Love’s Travel Stops said in an emailed statement. “The company has no plans to restrict purchases of diesel.”

[…] Earlier on Wednesday, the U.S. government’s Energy Information Administration said total inventories of distillates, which is mainly diesel fuel but also heating oil, fell last week to a 17-year low of 104 million barrels, which is 23% below normal.

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When the satire hits the central nerve of accuracy….

(READ HERE)