The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the inflation data from April today [DATA HERE] showing 0.3% increased inflation in April and a continued 8.3% ‘sticky’ inflation year-over-year.

CTH is going to say something slightly unusual, this data is actually worse than expected.   The hidden canary in the mine is within this BLS sentence which shows in the statistics, “the index for gasoline fell 6.1 percent over the month, offsetting increases in the indexes for natural gas and electricity.”  Remember, these are backwards reflections of price captured in early/mid-April.

The actual price of gasoline dropped 1% in April during the timeframe captured.  Yes, there was an actual 18 days in April when gasoline prices moderated and slightly ticked down; however, those prices immediately jumped again late April through today.

Because the BLS puts a 5x weight on the importance of gas [Table A], the 1% temporary drop in gasoline led to 6.1% downward “seasonally adjusted” price pressure.

All of that said, and with the heavy weighting of the gasoline prices considered, the net inflation results barely moved from March (8.5%) to April (8.3%). I modified Table-A to take out the noise.  You can see the downward pressure from gasoline and simultaneously the upward price pressure from food, specifically food at home.

This outcome is a reflection of what we have been seeing in the supermarkets and grocery stores.

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Texas Representative Chip Roy (CD-21) goes full ultra-MAGA after the House democrats created a $40 billion Ukraine spending bill and then demand an immediate vote for support, or else you’re a Russian sympathizer.  WATCH (1 minute):

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Even with dementia I doubt seriously Joe Biden believes the nonsense he read from his prepared script today.  Every economy policy the Biden administration has triggered, specifically including the Green New Deal energy policy, has caused massive inflation.

The national average price per gallon of gasoline was $2.33 in January 2021, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). It has increased nearly 84% when compared to the current national average price of $4.28 per gallon {link}.  Petroleum and refined gasoline costs are embedded in every aspect of the production economy.  Additionally, Biden’s restrictions, and later policies, on natural gas and coal have caused overall energy costs to skyrocket. Again, these are cornerstones of economic inflation.

During a ridiculously obtuse speech today [Full Speech Here], part of which is in the excerpt below, Biden claims there are only two sources of inflation: (1) the pandemic (covid-19); and (2) Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  I often accuse democrats of pretending not to know things, however these false attributions are far beyond pretense, they are purposeful lies. WATCH:

Beyond the claims about inflation, a visible pile of bovine excrement is noted in the sentences around Ukraine grain supplies.  Notice there is no supply chain issue pushing thousands of tons of military hardware into Ukraine; however, Biden claims they cannot get grain supplies out of Ukraine.  He cannot even see the hypocrisy in his own script.

Sending more than $50 billion in U.S. taxpayer money to Ukraine while those same U.S. taxpayers are crushed under the weight of the inflation that type of spending creates, is beyond blood-boiling.  We are currently in an abusive relationship with our own government and Joe Biden is the cognitively challenged, disposable front man sent to the cameras to gaslight the American people.

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The House of Representatives were concerned Joe Biden was not spending enough on the Ukraine laundry operation, so they took his $33 billion request and added another $7 billion making the Ukraine support package $40 billion.

Yes, you read that correctly…  ‘Unbelievable’ is an understatement. I mean seriously, does anyone in Washington DC even talk to their constituents any longer?

The DHS Customs and Border Patrol budget for our border security operations is approximately $4 billion, the Southern border is in crisis.  Meanwhile Biden and Pelosi send over $55 billion to Ukraine?

WASHINGTON, May 9 (Reuters) – U.S. congressional Democrats agreed to rush $39.8 billion in additional aid for Ukraine, two sources familiar with the proposal said on Monday, easing fears a delayed vote could interrupt the flow of U.S. weapons to the Kyiv government.

The House of Representatives could pass the plan, which exceeds President Joe Biden’s request last month for $33 billion, as soon as Tuesday, and Senate leaders said they were also prepared to move quickly.

A proposal for additional COVID-19-related funding, which some Democrats had wanted to combine with the emergency Ukraine funding, will now be considered separately.

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There are increasing reports of widespread consumer shortage for baby formula, many parents are now growing increasingly desperate, and retailers are starting to ration purchases.

The Abbott Nutrition plant in Sturgis, Michigan, shut down in February due to an FDA inspection and several food sanitation concerns. That plant was one of the biggest suppliers of baby formula nationally including Similac, and a major supplier of specialty formulas that are a lifeline for thousands of infants with medical conditions, including metabolic, allergic and gastrointestinal disorders.

Oddly, after several months the plant remains closed.

Politico has this interesting aspect noted, “Neither FDA nor Abbott will answer specific questions about the status of the investigation or what the plan is to reopen the facility, which has further strained the infant formula supply chain. Among other types of infant formula, the plant is a major producer of Similac, the top brand on the market. Parents across the country have posted on social media about near-empty shelves of formula at the retail level.”

In response to the supply shortages several retailers have now begun rationing infant formula to customers:

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Comrades, in his weekly monologue Neil Oliver walks through the stages of mental exhaustion the corrupt globalists have created in order to retain power.  Looking at the landscape through the prism of George Orwell’s prescient warnings, Oliver ponders if the mirrored reality is actually their roadmap.

The Ministry of Abundance positioned to discharge the pending scarcity.  The Ministry of Peace now used to carry out wars without authority.  The Ministry of Truth purposefully created to retain lies…. and so it goes.  Indeed as the warning was predicted, even “to wear an improper expression on your face (to look incredulous when a victory was announced, for example) was itself a punishable offense. There was even a word for it in Newspeak, facecrime it was called.”

The Global Ministry of Nutrition now instructs us to enjoy the benefits of eating bugs, slugs and “lab-grown meat” amid rising costs of farming. The Ministry of Residential Equity promotes the benefits of tiny houses; shared space cubicles where owning nothing leads to increased happiness.  The Ministry of Education replaces academic endeavors with emotional learning.  Math replaced by pansexual dance lessons for the non-binary kindergarteners.   Smile Comrade, smile.  WATCH:

[Transcript] “Given all that’s happened, I might have expected overwhelming anger in the country by now, loud calls for answers and apologies. Promises that mistakes made in the recent past, liberties taken, would not be repeated in the future. Also maybe demands for change.

Many are the dissenting voices – I know because I hear them every day – but the silencing and ridiculing still goes on.

What I sense around me most of all now, however, is weariness. Council elections have been held up and down Great Britain and apart from anything else, I think we can agree that turnout was low.”

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Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador (AMLO) is not wrong on this one.  AMLO is calling out Joe Biden for sending $33 billion more to Ukraine, while doing nothing financially in central America which would alleviate the migration pressure.

The article, as written, and general tone from President Lopez-Obrador, are expressed from the perspective that Biden has his foreign policy problem solving emphasis on the wrong syllable.

Put that level of subsidy into support within Central America and the migration issue would correct.  Unfortunately, as more people are becoming aware, the location of Biden’s financial emphasis is a feature of the White House plans, not a foreign policy flaw.

Ukraine is viewed as a priority because the DC politicians and corporations gain financial benefit from Ukraine spending.  If Biden were to drop $30 billion in central America, it would impede the White House agenda to keep the southern border crisis going.  The border collapse is a goal of the White House, not a mistake.

GUATEMALA CITY — Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador started a five-day tour to four Central American countries and Cuba on Thursday by lashing out at the U.S. government.

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Fox News conducted a poll last week [Data Here] asking about views on the economy overall.  As would be expected the majority of Americans see the economy as the #1 issue right now.

When asked for their view on how long the issue of rising prices are likely to remain a problem, 65% of the respondants said a year or more, while 29% had a more short-term view.

It is very hard to see a short-term end to inflation, accepting the status of energy prices and the looming issue of much higher food prices later this summer and fall.  In both the energy sector and the food sector the upward pressure on prices remains incredibly strong; perhaps the strongest ever predictable scenario for much higher prices yet to follow.

Fox News – […] Three-quarters say recent price increases pose a financial hardship for their family.  And increasing numbers say they are a “serious” hardship.  Higher grocery prices are a serious problem for 44%, up from 36% in February. Same story on gas prices:  44% serious hardship, up from 35%.  (more) 

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The employment news has everyone confused.  The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) reports today 428,000 jobs were added [DATA HERE] which is good.  We want to see people getting back to work.  However, simultaneously the number of people employed dropped by 363,000 and the labor participation rate dropped from 62.4 last month to 62.2 this month [Table A, DATA].  The unemployment rate remains unchanged at 3.6 percent.

That wildly conflicting set of data has led to a seriously frantic discussion about what is going on.  Here’s my take….  The majority of the irreconcilable data can be reconciled on this one basic Main Street employment scenario that is never tracked, people are job jumping.

Inflation is crushing main street workers at an astounding pace.  Housing, energy, gas and food prices -all the unavoidable stuff- are hitting blue collar workers the hardest.

However, in reality the key businesses inside the sectors with the most rapid employment gains, Leisure and Hospitality, are the last to raise prices.

Generally those jobs fall under the category of service workers.  The leisure and hospitality sector gained 78,000 jobs last month.

What we are seeing in the sporadic data is wage growth being driven in majority by increased entry wages on the hiring end of the employment relationship.

Because inflation is hitting so hard, so high and so quickly; and because businesses are slower to respond to the wage needs of current payroll staff; people are quitting one employer to take a linear job at another employer at a higher entry wage.   This is the fastest way to get a raise. This is job jumping.

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As CTH has noted since last October the rapid increases in fertilizer costs could potentially create a major issue for global food supplies later this summer.  As the farming costs continue escalating, including fertilizer and diesel fuel prices, this will eventually lead to major price increases on the harvests.   Field to fork inflation is looking increasingly severe later this year; what we have called the third wave of inflation.

Beyond prices, a primary impact in the U.S. market, concerns are now escalating about grain shortages {SEE HERE} and lower European crop yields which will lead to less food products on a global basis.   According to information shared by ZeroHedge, “We think it will take at least 2-3 years to replenish global grains stocks,” Illinois-based CF Industries Holdings Inc.’s president and chief executive officer Tony Will said in a statement in Wednesday’s earnings report.”

Axios is reporting on the continued escalation of fertilizer prices; however, they conveniently and purposefully avoid noting the origin of the problem in North America is directly the result of Joe Biden’s immediate energy policies that drove up the costs of natural gas (a critical component):

AXIOS – “Skyrocketing fertilizer costs — like those made from nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) — are driving up food prices and, worse, threatening food security around the globe.

State of play: Prices for NPK were up 125% in January from a year before, and rose another 17% from the beginning of the year to March, according to data compiled by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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