All things considered, a remarkably honest article from CNBC outlines the likelihood for a wave of retail bankruptcies.   In part the issue is driven by COVID bailout and stimulus funds that inflated the balance sheets and hid the natural contraction that was taking place in the last half of 2021 through today.  However, bar far the biggest issue is a contraction in current consumer spending due to severe cost increases in housing, food, fuel and energy.

As we have discussed at length, consumer spending patterns shifted radically in the last year.

Despite the 2021 third and fourth quarter giving the artificial impression of strong demand, inventories were climbing and productivity in the manufacturing and services dropped dramatically.   In combination these two data points both indicated a contraction in demand.

The first quarter of 2022 showed a -1.5% overall GDP.  The second quarter ends next week, and the government data will be released in the last week of July.  I predict that Q2 data will be heavily manipulated in two ways: (1) manipulation of import data via the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles; and (2) the intentional use of a lower inflation rate than currently exists in all goods.   My best guess on the fake BEA numbers is a +0.2 to +0.5% positive GDP, thereby barely avoiding the technical definition of a recession.

That said, the CNBC article outlines a very bad scenario for retailers, as the consumer spending contraction hits their profit and loss statements.

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Yesterday we noted one of the likely downstream consequences from the Supreme Court decision on Roe might be that increased federalism and state control over abortion laws would lead to national ‘red lining.’  Essentially, leftists would avoid red state abortion restrictions and self-isolate in deepening blue regions where abortion is more common and accessible.

Within hours of that prediction, Google Inc sent an internal memo to employees offering to pay relocation assistance for any worker who would want to leave an area where abortion is likely to be restricted.

VIA NBC –  Google sent a companywide email Friday about the historic Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade, explaining employees in affected states can apply for relocation without explaining why.

“This is a profound change for the country that deeply effects so many of us, especially women,” wrote Google Chief People officer Fiona Cicconi in an email to workers, viewed by CNBC. “Googlers can also apply for relocation without justification, and those overseeing this process will be aware of the situation.”

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Quite a remarkably telling situation when the foreign leaders of France and Canada begin to think they have some political responsibility to deliver their opinions on decisions within the United States government.

Yes, their pronouncements are fraught with stupidity considering their own national laws on abortion were/are much more stringent than the United States, but that belies the point of their insufferable arrogance.  The globalist outlook is structured around their own sense of importance.

The protestations from Macron are particularly ridiculous since France has a legal limit of 14 weeks for abortion [LINK].

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the same man who forced all women in Canada to undergo a vaccine requirement or remove themselves from society, took the hypocrisy of his own “women’s health” policy one step further than Macron.

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The same representative who advocated for violence against President Trump cabinet members, appeared in front of the Supreme Court today to advocate for defiance against the constitutional limitations on government power.

Maxine Waters (California CD-43) represents the outlook of the radical leftists in her emotional reaction to the Supreme Court ruling that lets states decide what laws should be in place to limit the killing of unborn babies.   Ms Waters specifically cited and called for the defiance of “black women” in opposition to the ruling.  Her proclamations make evil and twisted sense from the perspective of the abortion industry, as unborn black babies are disproportionately killed by abortion providers.  WATCH:

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) documented in its Abortion Surveillance report for 2015 – released on Nov. 23, 2018 – that while black Americans comprise 13.4% of the U.S. population, they accounted for 36.0% of the abortions in 2015.  Black women have three times the rate of abortion as white women, and that higher abortion rate is consistent even after you filter the control data to remove income from the issue {link}.

The number one customer for abortion services are young pregnant black women.  This was also the target audience identified by Margaret Sanger the founder of Planned Parenthood and an avowed racist.  The racial roots of Planned Parenthood go back to the founding.

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With the advanced leak of the Supreme Court abortion ruling, the White House had two months to prepare for the political use of the issue.  Today, the installed occupant of the oval office, was immediately thrust to the microphones to read the prepared remarks. [Transcript Here]

Within seconds of his script an angry and cognitively unstable Biden declared, “with Roe gone, let’s be very clear: The health and life of women in this nation are now at risk.”  The pre-scripted hyperbole continued, “the Court’s decision to do so will have real and immediate consequences.  State laws banning abortion are automatically taking effect today, jeopardizing the health of millions of women, some without exceptions. So extreme that women could be punished for protecting their health,” he exclaims.  WATCH:

[…] “This fall, we must elect more senators and representatives who will codify a woman’s right to choose into federal law once again, elect more state leaders to protect this right at the local level.  We need to restore the protections of Roe as law of the land.  We need to elect officials who will do that. This fall, Roe is on the ballot.  Personal freedoms are on the ballot.  The right to privacy, liberty, equality, they’re all on the ballot. ” (read more)

In addition to the Supreme Court affirming federalism and the rights of individual states to make their own decisions on abortion, there is another downstream benefit to the Roe decision.  Leftists are less likely to migrate to Red states.

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To say the recent remarks from German Economic and Climate Minister Robert Habeck showcase the stupidity of the western sanctions would be an understatement.  In a broad energy policy announcement to the German people, Minister Habeck has announced that natural gas is now urgently being stored and built up in order to survive next winter.

Additionally, the German parliament is being called into emergency session to re-write climate laws allowing coal-fired electricity power plants to be brought back on-line.  Essentially, years of German renewable energy investments and initiatives are now being reversed in order to maintain the commitment to NATO sanctions against Russia.

You can read the full translated remarks HERE.  Some of the more stunning excerpts are below.

GERMANY – Minister Robert Habeck […] “The situation on the gas market has deteriorated in recent days. The missing quantities can still be replaced, and the gas storage tanks are still being filled, albeit at high prices. Security of supply is currently guaranteed. But the situation is serious. We are therefore further strengthening precautions and taking additional measures to reduce gas consumption. 

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U.S. inflation was/is driven by supply side impacts as a result of policy (Build Back Better).  The U.S. recession was/is now driven by demand side impacts that are the result of increased supply side costs.  This is the natural economic truth being denied by all levels of political leadership.

Joe Biden policy makers, specifically the U.S. treasury secretary and the federal reserve chairman, have claimed -falsely- that current inflation was/is being driven by demand. In essence, and ironically, their position means consumers are to blame for high prices.  This has been their story and they have stuck to it.  However, remember monetary policy can only impact the demand side of the economy.  Monetary policy cannot impact the supply side, that aspect is led by Joe Biden policy.

The Federal reserve, having denied (pretended) the supply side causation, has effectively raised interest rates (0.75%) into an economic environment where consumer demand was already contracting.  CTH has been asserting this fundamental position all year.   Here is the evidence:

US Manufacturing PMI fell dramatically to 52.4 in June 2022 from 57 in May.  This drop is well below the market and economic expectations of 56, and now points to the slowest growth and steepest drop in factory activity in almost two years.  Contractions in output and new orders are pushing the index down.

Production and new sales declined for the first time since the depths of the pandemic in mid-2020 driven by weak consumer demand.  Inflation and a drop in wholesale and retail purchases have lowered purchase orders.  The gears inside the economy are slowing to a halt.

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In a 6-3 ruling [pdf HERE] the Supreme Court has ruled that New York state cannot require an individual to prove a “special need” in order to carry a firearm for self-protection.  The ruling, likely to have ramifications for other gun restricting states, affirms the constitutional right of an individual to carry a firearm, and blocks the efforts of states to make the individual prove they have a need for one.

Writing the majority decision Justice Clarence Thomas concluded there was no historical requirement that law-abiding citizens show the kind of special need for self-defense required by the New York law to carry a gun in public. Indeed, as Thomas wrote, there is “no other constitutional right that an individual may exercise only after demonstrating to government officers some special need.”  [Ruling Here]

SCOTUS BLOG – The state law at the heart of New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen required anyone who wants to carry a concealed handgun outside the home to show “proper cause” for the license. New York courts interpreted that phrase to require applicants to show more than a general desire to protect themselves or their property. Instead, applicants must demonstrate a special need for self-defense – for example, a pattern of physical threats. Several other states, including California, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, and New Jersey, impose similar restrictions, as do many cities. (read more)

Leftists, particularly those who have recently become drunk on power from their COVID dictates, are apoplectic about the supreme court limiting the power of government to control the constitutional rights of the individual.  It’s quite remarkable to watch the far-left lash out against the institution that has the role in our government to protect the constitution.

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… And if they don’t, they are Russian sympathizers.

Delivering remarks from the stage built next to the White House, earlier today Joe Biden demanded that congress and states suspend gasoline taxes for 90-days in order to offset the massive price increases his energy policy has created. {Transcript Here} Additionally, Biden says any political opposition to his demand means his opponents support Russia:

“for all those Republicans in Congress criticizing me today for high gas prices in America, are you now saying we were wrong to support Ukraine?  Are you saying we were wrong to stand up to Putin?  Are you saying that we would rather have lower gas prices in America and Putin’s iron fist in Europe?  I don’t believe that.” {Direct Rumble Link}

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It will be worth watching how California Governor Gavin Newsom responds to this instruction.  California has the largest gasoline taxes in the nation and uses them to fund the majority of their left-wing policies.

Full video and transcript below.

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The conflict of interest is simply off-the-proverbial charts here.   Tom Donilon is a deep DC swamp operator and has been for his entire career.  Donilon is connected to every tentacle of the Obama and Biden administrations.  Donilon is also the Chairman of the BlackRock Investment Institute.

We have written about the conflicts {Go Deep Here} and {Go Deep Here}, but this move by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is stunningly fraught with serious conflicts of interest.

Tom Donilon’s literal job description at Blackrock is to “leverage the firm’s expertise and generate proprietary research to provide insights on the global economy, markets, geopolitics and long-term asset allocation,” and the State Dept has just appointed him as Co-Chair of the U.S. foreign policy advisory board.

Specifically, the Biden administration has just put Blackrock Investment Institute Chairman Tom Donilon in charge of U.S-China policy.

How in the proverbial hell can this be permitted?  That’s way beyond a rhetorical question.   The Dept of State has selected a team of Wall Street control agents to guide global U.S. policy.

(STATE DEPT) – Today, Secretary Blinken announced his selections for the U.S. Department of State’s Foreign Affairs Policy Board.

Since its establishment in 2011, the Board has provided independent advice on the conduct of U.S. foreign policy and diplomacy, consistent with each Secretary of State and administration’s evolving priorities for it.

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