Things in the Netherlands are remaining spicy after Dutch police attempted to stop one farmer protest by shooting at one of the teenage farm tractor drivers.

A summary of the background story is HERE.  Independent journalist Michael Yon has now travelled to the Netherlands to document the protest as western interest in the conflict starts to increase.  Steve Bannon interviewed Yon earlier today. {Direct Rumble Link}, Video Below:

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After the Dutch police shot at one of the protesting farmers last night, they took the tractor driver -a teenage boy- to a local police station.   The farmers responded earlier today by surrounding the police station and demanding his release.  The Dutch farmers are not backing down, they have doubled-down and are now blocking airports.

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Monmouth University conducted another political poll of U.S respondents [SEE Survey HERE].  In addition to the plummeting approval of Joe Biden, the worst yet approval at 36% according to the survey, the respondents were asked to list their top concerns (Question #7).

The responses were recorded but did not come from a list presented by Monmouth.  They just compiled the results.  As stated, “what is the biggest concern facing your family right now?”  The results show the top priorities of Americans and the disconnect between the priorities of congress and the American people are stark.

(Source, Question #7)

Nowhere on the expressed concerns did anyone identify supporting Ukraine or the Russia -v- Ukraine conflict, as a priority; yet, Ukraine has taken up almost all of the legislative effort from congress.  The total taxpayer-funded congressional spending is nearing $100 billion.  Additionally absent from the concerns of the American people, is any mention of the January 6th committee; again, another time wasted political exercise by a congress detached from the priorities of the electorate.

The top priorities are what we would expect to see, economic issues.  Inflation, Gas Prices, the Economy and the ability to pay everyday bills (groceries) are the priorities of the American people.  All of these issues are directly caused by Joe Biden and the policy of his administration.  Climate change, the #1 focus of the administration, is not even in the top ten.  We are in an abusive relationship with our own government.

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The U.S. Farm Bureau posts their calculated cost of the July 4th holiday food basket each year.  This year the Farm Bureau is estimating a cost of $69.68 for ten people, that is an increase of 17% from 2021. [DATA HERE]

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I’m not sure we could feed ten people for less than $70, but that’s the estimate from the Farm Bureau which aligns with the Consumer Price Index.  Full data below.

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World Bank President David Malpass appears on CBS with media propagandist Margaret Brennan, a woman of exceptionally low intelligence, to discuss the current state of global economics and the likely consequences.  I have been saying this for a year and I will repeat, the absence of food will change things.

Within the interview [Transcript Here] the status and solutions that Malpass outlines are accurate and factual, albeit couched in gentle terms acceptable to the globalists. As noted by Malpass, if a shift in messaging and actual policy for energy and finance does not take place, the outcome will be bad for food production and government stability.

The World Bank president accurately states increased production is urgently needed to avoid global shortages.  However, that increase in production is only possible if the leaders of the largest economies reverse their positions on energy development and finance.  The world needs oil and natural gas production to increase dramatically in order to stave off food shortages. Unfortunately, those pragmatic recommendations are falling on deaf political ears.  WATCH:

[Transcript] – MARGARET BRENNAN: There are a lot of stressors on the global economic system right now, how do you describe where we are?

MALPASS: It’s a sharp slowdown, including even China. So we’ve seen the world growth fall by half since January in terms of GDP growth. But there’s also shortages, there’s inflation. And the food shortages for the poorer countries are becoming a significant concern, they already are.

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All things considered, a remarkably honest article from CNBC outlines the likelihood for a wave of retail bankruptcies.   In part the issue is driven by COVID bailout and stimulus funds that inflated the balance sheets and hid the natural contraction that was taking place in the last half of 2021 through today.  However, bar far the biggest issue is a contraction in current consumer spending due to severe cost increases in housing, food, fuel and energy.

As we have discussed at length, consumer spending patterns shifted radically in the last year.

Despite the 2021 third and fourth quarter giving the artificial impression of strong demand, inventories were climbing and productivity in the manufacturing and services dropped dramatically.   In combination these two data points both indicated a contraction in demand.

The first quarter of 2022 showed a -1.5% overall GDP.  The second quarter ends next week, and the government data will be released in the last week of July.  I predict that Q2 data will be heavily manipulated in two ways: (1) manipulation of import data via the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles; and (2) the intentional use of a lower inflation rate than currently exists in all goods.   My best guess on the fake BEA numbers is a +0.2 to +0.5% positive GDP, thereby barely avoiding the technical definition of a recession.

That said, the CNBC article outlines a very bad scenario for retailers, as the consumer spending contraction hits their profit and loss statements.

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell admitted the obvious in his senate testimony today when asked about U.S. inflation.  However, his testimony directly contradicts the White House claims.

Senator Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), member of the Senate Banking Committee, walked through the inflation timeline and asked Chairman Powell about the cause of the escalated inflation in 2021.  Powell admitted the massive rise in inflation had nothing to do with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. WATCH (02:16 Prompted):

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I found this 8-minute video to be quite interesting.  As we consider the scale of food price increase in the United States, this video of a Russian supermarket yesterday is fascinating.

Considering the sanctions levied upon Russia by the western alliance, it would appear that they are coping quite nicely.  The guy who uploaded the video shares, “I took my camera with me on a quick Beer run to give you folks an idea of what a small local supermarket in a village South of Saint Petersburg, Russia looks like. How do the prices compare to where you live?”  WATCH:

https://youtu.be/6bq8MfAlNPY

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This is the kind of real information the U.S. media would never mention.

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Have you ever seen egg prices at $1 per egg range, or $12/doz?  Hold on a few months and perhaps you will.  That is the context for the scale of food price increases the USDA is now starting to predict.  The highest predicted change in food costs in well over 40 years, that’s the USDA warning in their revised May “Food Price Outlook”. [DATA HERE]

This month the USDA just re-re-revised the forward price outlook, and things are grim.  It likely doesn’t come as a surprise to many CTH readers because we have been discussing the convergence of events since October of 2021, when we first were able to predict Wave-1 (Dec/Jan), and Wave-2 (March/Apr) inflation.  However, the underlying data for Wave-3 is double the prior two phases.

Keep in mind the data is national & skewed toward low estimations as represented by (+).

When the USDA predicts egg prices increasing by 19.5 to 20.5% (from where those prices are now), there will be regions with much higher retail increases than estimated.

Just two months ago, USDA had egg inflation at 2.5%-3.5% range, year over year.  Again, that’s the scale of change; from a 3.5% forward outlook to a 20.5% forward outlook effective right now.

Food at home (grocery store) prices: up 7% to 8% in this monthly review, versus the April outlook of a rise of 5% to 6%. That means the USDA is predicting the highest grocery store price rise since 1980 when prices rose 8.1% (prices rose 7.2% in 1981).  There is no reason to think the USDA forecast will not rise again in June.

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We often talk about the disconnect between Wall Street (globalists) and Main Street (nationalists), and their influence in economic policy.  Today, Jason Furman, a former Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, appears on CBS News to discuss his Harvard-Kennedy School impression of the U.S. economy.

There’s a particular point in the interview [Transcript Here] that encapsulates the moonbat perspective of the globalists.  Listen at 01:20 and you will hear this:

FURMAN:  “Look, we’ve seen a remarkable thing. Consumers, if you survey them, are very pessimistic and negative about the economy. When they vote with their wallets, we saw- we got the consumer spending data for April and it was way up. Consumer spending on just about everything has been booming. Over the next 6 to 12 months, I’m not super worried about a recession. After that is where I start to get worried because that’s where the Fed’s policy will start having more of an effect.”

Put another way: Our policies have made prices skyrocket (inflation). Consumers are forced to spend more money to sustain themselves (food, housing, fuel, energy); ergo consumer spending is booming. Brilliant, our plan to increase consumer spending by raising their prices is working.  That’s the way these people think. WATCH:

We force you to pay more, then turn around and claim economic victory because you are paying more…. “consumer spending is booming.”

By the way, he’s at the World Economic Forum where this perspective is actually cheered inside the echo-chamber.

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Montana Senator Jon Tester is deeply connected to the corrupt and multinational Big Agricultural (BigAg) lobby.  As a democrat connected closer to Wall Street, he is not a supporter of American farmers overall as it pertains to America First food security and domestic food prices.  However, that said, what Senator Tester says in the first two minutes of this interview is correct.

As Tester notes, the food “supply” issue is not as big a deal in North America as it will certainly be in food dependent regions.  Between the U.S, Mexico and Canada we produce more food than we consume, and with excellence in industrial farming we export food products to the world, eastward and westward.  The issue for the U.S. population is going to be massive increases in food prices in later summer and fall as the cumulative increase in costs at the field reach the stores.  WATCH (2 mins):

My own back of the envelope calculations put the third-wave price increase in the 35 to 40% range overall.  Based on the input costs, energy and transportation, a current $4.00 item is going to cost around $5.50 later this year.  That is the approximate scale of price increase in foodstuff we should be anticipating.

Food insecurity, as an outcome of food pricing, is going to be the election issue that might supersede the gasoline price issue.  That’s going to be the crisis, and we are going to need to be very careful; because depending on the scale of the crisis there are going to be massive numbers of people demanding the government step in to solve it.   Our current government is being run by economic socialists; we do not want their equitable distribution solutions.

Conduct your affairs accordingly….

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