The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the third quarter review of average weekly wages [Main Data Here]. The results of the year-over-year comparison should alarm everyone. This is a very serious data point that likely means we are in a recession, it just has not been quantified yet.
By now, everyone knows the term “stagflation”, which means a stagnant economy and large inflation (price increases), the easiest comparison is Jimmy Carter economic program in the 1970’s. However, let me assure you what this latest BLS release foretells is not that. This is far more serious than stagflation. I am not an alarmist, but I am encouraging everyone to take this economic data seriously.
In this graphic I have modified the spread sheet to focus attention on the part that really matters. [Original Data Table 2 Here] What you are seeing here is a comparison of weekly wages for the third quarter (July, Aug, Sept) of this year, compared to the weekly average wages in 2020:

Weekly wages went up a sum total of seven bucks [$7/1,000 = 0.7%] year over year. THAT is ridiculously low. However, worse yet look at all the categories of workers who saw an actual decline in wages. This is not a decline in wage value, this is an actual decline in net wages earned. WAGES HAVE DROPPED !
This is not only saying wages are failing to keep up with inflation, that part is beyond obvious, the data shows actual declines in wages for full time workers. This is far more concerning, check that…. this is four alarm fire – running around the neighborhood naked and panicked level concerning… when you take actual declines in wages and factor in the September inflation numbers [Main Data Here].
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