For all intents and purposes Germany is the EU, because German economic policy dictates the outcomes of all EU economic policy.  So as the EU promises to engage in more central bank monetary printing (quantitative easing) simultaneously Germany promises to keep negative interest rates floating as long as possible. [EU Parliament pictured below]
Yes, the EU is in serious structural economic trouble; and that is likely the real reason why quivering Chancellor Angela Merkel has decided to exit the political stage before the larger communal catches on.

Within the remarks by German Finance Minister Scholz it is the lamentation about the lack of investment into their grand collective economic scheme where you find the economic dissonance, and ultimately the hilarious punch lines:

BERLIN (Reuters) – German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said on Saturday that he expected interest rates to remain very low for “the next few years”, adding that companies should seize the opportunity of near-zero borrowing costs to boost private sector investment.
The European Central Bank has already signaled even more monetary stimulus for the euro zone economy, hoping to arrest a downward spiral that could lead to an economic recession.

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On Thursday June 20, 2019, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau traveled to Washington DC for a meeting with Speaker Nancy Pelosi and democrat leadership.  After the political ideologues held the meeting, Trudeau and Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland tabled the Canadian ratification on the USMCA trade agreement.
It was obvious both groups of avowed leftists agreed to stall the USMCA for politics.
On August 13th White House emissary National Security Advisor John Bolton met with Britian’s Chancellor of Exchequer Sajid Javid, and the public became aware of efforts toward a six month post Brexit U.S-U.K trade agreement that would become effective on November 1st, 2019; immediately the day after Brexit was official.
On August 14th Speaker Nancy Pelosi quickly rushed a press release saying the House would never support that interim U.S-U.K trade agreement, using cover story of worry about Ireland/Northern Ireland peace accord.  Beyond all the talking points the baseline reason for Pelosi’s opposition is Democrats do not support Brexit.  Both the immediacy and the construct of the counter-maneuver by Pelosi were noted. [House in recess].
Immediately after the deal between President Trump and Prime Minister Boris Johnson became public; an intense international media effort began to push a narrative of the “U.S. heading to a recession”.  The group of corporate financial media interests; those who advance the interests of Wall Street and are adamantly adverse to a global trade reset; and the political opposition to Donald Trump, began using a recession talking point in unison.
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First rule in geopolitics, it’s always about the economics.  Second rule in geopolitics: refer to rule #1.    Understanding this basic truism is the key to understand how President Trump is able to be so effective.  There are trillions at stake, and infinite interests.

“Economic security is national security.” ~President Trump

All politics circles back to the underlying economics; whether it is an individual financial self-interest for a specific politician, or whether it is a larger financial interest for a group or even a nation.  Everything is always about the money, and that essential truth is why Donald Trump is so uniquely qualified, influential and stunningly effective. Today:

(VIA CBC) The United States would “enthusiastically” support a no-deal Brexit if that is what the British government decided to do, U.S. national security adviser John Bolton told reporters on Monday.
[…]  As the United Kingdom prepares to leave the European Union on Oct. 31, its biggest geopolitical shift since the Second World War, many diplomats expect London to become increasingly reliant on the United States.
“If that’s the decision of the British government we will support it enthusiastically, and that’s what I’m trying to convey. We’re with you, we’re with you,” said Bolton, in London for two days of talks with British officials. The U.S. administration is seeking an improved U.S.-British relationship with Prime Minister Boris Johnson after sometimes tense ties between Donald Trump and Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May.

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Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon appears on Fox News with Maria Bartiromo for a wide-ranging discussion on current political and geopolitical events.
Topics include the U.S-Mexico border security and immigration; the 2020 democrat candidates (announced and unannounced); the bigger geopolitical issues behind the U.S-China trade conflict; Joe and Hunter Biden’s direct financial relationship to the Chinese communist government; the USMCA trade agreement; Trump’s leverage to increase an EU free economic alliance against China; and radical action by dems.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released significant wage and salary data yesterday which held stunning upward revisions for 2018 and 2019.   Wage growth of 5.5% combined with low inflation remaining at 1.4 percent; the disposable income of U.S. workers jumped to a stunning 4.1%.  [Data Tables]

Within the revised BEA data, we find employee compensation rose 4.5% in 2017 and 5% in 2018.  Importantly the growth trend continued into 2019, with compensation increasing 3.4 percent in the first six months alone.  Year-over-year wages and salaries were revised upward to 5.3% for May, and 5.5% in June.  These are stunning increases in worker pay.
There are various economic indicators we have shared through the years, but wage growth is one of the more critical.  First, wage growth lags behind business activity – workers don’t get pay raises until after business volume demands/provides it.  Second, wage growth is generally uni-directional – once businesses hike pay, the increases cement.
As the Wall Street Journal put it:
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The financial media still doesn’t get it… Obviously! Transfixed and jaw-agape at seemingly at-odds aspects to a new engagement with Beijing, the MSM financial media are clueless. They are genuinely disconnected, and have no idea what is going on.
The majority of financial pundits are perplexed at what they can see on the surface. USTR Robert Ligthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are beginning discussions with Beijing. Meanwhile President Trump’s tweets seem to dismiss the potential of the deal-making. The media call this mixed-messaging; however, that’s not what this is.

Secretary Wilbur Ross was very insightful last week when he also spoke of the current U.S. perspective toward the U.S-China trade negotiation.  If you have followed the basic road-map of America-First trade policy, there’s was a very clear picture. However, as we expected, most pundits and trade analysts ignored the administration message.
Commerce Secretary Ross warned the professional investment class when he said the current objective for Mnuchin and Lighthizer was to find out if Beijing is willing to re-engage from the starting point where they left-off when talks collapsed.
That was a big tell.
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Newly elected conservative party head and U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson attended his first meeting of Parliament and took direct aim at the insufferable Labor party leftist, Jeremy Corbyn.  There’s been a lot of shaking things up in the first week…

Boris Johnson’s move into Downing Street has led to a surge in support for the Conservatives, an exclusive Mail on Sunday poll has found.  (read more)

President Trump spoke yesterday with Prime Minister Johnson on the phone.  The president relayed the phone call to the media when questioned:

THE PRESIDENT: Well, you know why your timing is good? Because I spoke to him about — how long have you been here? Sixteen minutes. I spoke to him 17 minutes ago. I hung up the phone as you were coming in.

And he’s a good guy. He’s a friend of mine. I think we’re going to have a great relationship. And Boris is going to be a great Prime Minister. I predict he will be a great Prime Minister. He has what it takes. They needed him for a long time. UK needed him for a long time. And —

Q Would you — would you invite him here?

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President Trump granted full declassification authority to AG Bill Barr in May of this year.  There has been some discussion about Bill Barr not releasing any information.  In an interview last week with Sean Hannity, President Trump outlined his thoughts on the declassification issue:

[Transcript] HANNITY: Mr. President, you have the power to literally release the FISA applications and the 302’s and the gang made information and you made a decision to hand it over to the Attorney General and let him decide. And I’m curious as to why?
TRUMP: Well, we have a very respected gentleman, very high quality person named William Barr and he is doing – I can tell you he’s working so hard and rather than just doing a total release, I gave him a total release, in other words he’s got everything anything he needs, he’s got it.

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Earlier today President Trump sent a warning tweet about Apple possibly incurring tariffs on their products if they continue a plan for manufacturing in China.  Later in the day the president answered direct questions about those possible tariffs.
Additionally, Secretary Wilbur Ross was very insightful when he also spoke of the current U.S. perspective toward the U.S-China trade negotiation.  If you have followed the basic road-map of America-First, there’s a very clear picture; however, most pundits and trade analysts will likely ignore the message.

Subtle as a brick through a window…. yet it’s amazing how many people can’t see it.
Secretary Ross warned the professional investment class that the current objective for Secretary Mnuchin and USTR Lighthizer is to find out if Beijing is willing to re-engage from the starting point where they left-off when talks collapsed.  That’s a big tell.
After several phone calls and staff contacts if the U.S. team doesn’t know the answer to that question, well, there’s almost zero likelihood of any optimistic outlook.  In essence, the only value within the current engagement is financial ‘optics’ to stabilize markets.
It has been clear -validated by the G20 outcome- that President Trump is not going to accept anything less than a full and complete structural change in the U.S. trade position with China.  Lighthizer’s severe compliance and enforcement clauses, specific to each unique trade sector, are non-negotiable.
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Boris Johnson has succeeded in beating his nearest rival Jeremy Hunt for leadership of the conservative party in the U.K. thereby becoming the next Prime Minister. One of the priority challenges for Prime Minister Johnson will be navigating a successful Brexit.

A full three years after the British electorate voted to leave the European Union, the elites in Britain have continued to stymie the referendum in their effort to remain attached to the communal values of the collective society.  Thus gave rapid rise, recently, to the Brexit Party as a national force led by Nigel Farage.  It’s the UK version of ‘deplorables’ vs ‘elites’.
The British Parliament is filled with elected members who stand in opposition to the majority of the British citizenry.  It is amid this professionally political and elitist disconnect that Boris Johnson must now attempt to deliver Brexit, while the purchased politicians of both institutional parties will oppose his effort. [Sound familiar?]
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