“Peace is the prize” ~ Donald Trump

White HouseA- President Donald J. Trump hosted Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the White House, where the two leaders signed a historic joint declaration for peace after decades of bitter conflict and scores of lives lost — a landmark achievement for international diplomacy that only President Trump could deliver.

The two leaders also signed bilateral economic agreements with the U.S., unlocking the great potential of the South Caucasus region in trade, transit, energy, infrastructure, and technology, and creating new opportunities for the American people and American businesses.

“For more than 35 years, Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought a bitter conflict that resulted in tremendous suffering for both nations… Many tried to find a resolution… and they were unsuccessful. With this Accord, we’ve finally succeeded in making peace,” said President Trump.

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The financial pundits are putting their customary spin on it, but overall as the reciprocal tariffs begin, things are going well.

China’s trade surplus with the US declined to USD 23.74 billion in July, down from USD 26.57 billion in June, as both exports and imports with the US declined, falling 21.7% and 18.9%, respectively. {LINK}

For Germany, exports to the U.S. slid 2.1% to 11.8 billion euros, the third consecutive monthly decrease and the lowest value since February 2022, Destatis said. They were 8.4% lower than the same month last year. {LINK} However, since imports from the U.S. increased at the same time, this narrowed Germany’s trade surplus in goods with the U.S.

Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter left Washington empty-handed on Wednesday after a hastily arranged trip to avert a crippling 39% tariff on the country’s exports to the United States, its biggest market, three sources familiar with the matter said. {LINK}

Reciprocal tariffs begin today. “Before Thursday, virtually every country’s goods were subject to a minimum 10% tariff. Now rates vary substantially from country to country.”

The highest rates imposed are on goods from Brazil (50%), Laos (40%), Myanmar (40%), Switzerland (39%), Iraq (35%) and Serbia (35%).

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On Sunday President Trump remarked that emissary Steve Witkoff was likely to travel to Russia this week, presumably at the request of Kremlin officials.  Earlier President Trump shortened the deadline for Russia to come to the negotiating table from 50 days to 10-12 days. The preferred timeline by President Trump ends this Friday.

(AP) – Vladimir Putin is open to meeting Volodymyr Zelensky for talks following “preparatory work at the expert level,” the Kremlin has announced, according to the state-owned RT television station.

“I would like to remind you that the president himself does not rule out the possibility of holding such a meeting,” Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman said. “But only after the necessary work is done at the expert level and the appropriate distance is overcome.”

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National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett appears on Meet the Press with the competitor for most dramatic political pundit, Kristen Welker.

The first question surrounds President Trump firing Bureau of Labor and Statistics Commissioner Dr. Erika McEntarfer.

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U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer appears on Face the Nation with the ever-dramatic Margaret Brennan. Video and Transcript Below:

The part about Canada is very interesting.

[Transcript] – MARGARET BRENNAN: And we’re joined now by United States Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer. Ambassador, good to have you here.

JAMIESON GREER: Great to be here. Thank you.

MARGARET BRENNAN: So the President signed this executive order on Thursday, raises tariff rates on about 70 countries. Should we expect those to be negotiated down in the coming days?

JAMIESON GREER: I don’t, I don’t think they will be in the coming days. I think a lot of these, well I know a lot of these, are set rates pursuant to deals. Some of these deals are announced, some are not, others depend on the level of the trade deficit or surplus we may have with the country. So, so these, these tariff rates are pretty much set. I expect I do have my phone blowing up. There are trade ministers who, who want to talk more and see how they can work in a different way with the United States, but I think that we have, we’re seeing truly the contours of the President’s tariff plan right now with these rates.

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U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer hold a joint press conference in Stockholm after concluding the third-round of trade talks with Chinese officials.

The discussion and press availability covered U.S-China trade negotiations, economic cooperation and whether President Trump will meet Xi Jinping. Key moments include questions on tariffs, supply chains, and Beijing diplomacy. WATCH:

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Treasury Secretary Bessent notes as the U.S. economy continues strengthening, and as each trade deal with the U.K, Japan, ASEAN nations and Europe have cemented, the talks between the U.S. and China become more substantive.

With each global trade partner agreeing to terms of access to the USA market more pressure is naturally created on China to complete negotiations and affirm their position as supplier to the world’s largest market.

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President Trump holds a press conference aboard Air Force One en route back to the White House.  Currently the press comments are audio only, but will likely have video upon arrival.

President Trump begins his remarks talking about a threat delivered by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to the state of Israel where the U.K is threatening to recognize a Palestinian state if Israel doesn’t stop the bombing in Gaza and deliver aid to the impacted citizens.   LISTEN:

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The reality of the U.S-Canada economic relationship and the position of President Donald Trump is not that difficult to understand if you take all the disparate datapoints and quotes from Trump and put them into context.

During a White House meeting with Mark Carney, President Trump essentially told the Canadian Prime Minister why he was in no hurry to get to a deal with Canada.

The 35% tariffs on non-USMCA goods are going to trigger on August 1st, because the main priority of Trump -looking toward Canada- is to dissolve the USMCA.

During the May 6th oval office meeting with Carney, President Trump was discussing the USMCA and said:  “As you know it terminates fairly shortly. It gets renegotiated fairly shortly.” … “This was a transitional deal, and we’ll see what happens, we’re going to start renegotiating that” … “I don’t know if it serves a purpose anymore.”  …. “And the biggest purpose it served was, we got rid of NAFTA.”

To understand why President Trump wants to dissolve the USMCA {SEE HERE}.  To understand the technical value of dissolving the USMCA {SEE HERE}.  It’s not a complicated economic analysis; it’s common sense.

Currently, approximately 60% of the traded goods and services between the U.S. and Canada are covered by the USMCA; the remaining 40% will be hit by tariffs on August 1st at a 35% rate.

When the USMCA is renegotiated, predictably dissolved in favor of two bilateral trade agreements – one for Mexico and one for Canada, all of the U.S-Canada trade sectors will be part of the enlarged free trade negotiation.  As a result, there is absolutely no motive to engage in trade discussions now.

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Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick describes some of the details within the new U.S-European trade agreement.

As noted, the $600 billion in regular trade products exported by the EU to the USA market will be subject to a 15% reciprocal tariff.  This approach effectively ends the Marshall Plan, sets the trade terms to balance and should generate approximately $90 billion in revenue to the U.S. treasury.

U.S. tariffs on cars and auto parts are being reduced to the baseline 15 percent — a level that matches the deal notched earlier this month by Japanese automakers. In exchange, the EU has agreed to lower its car tariffs from 10 percent to zero, trade spokesperson Olof Gill said.  The German companies are angry though, because the 25% tariff still applies to Mexico. So, German autos manufactured in Mexico (massive prior investment) will come to the USA with a 25% tariff.

In addition to the EU agreement to open their markets to U.S. products, private companies within the EU have committed to $600 billion in direct investment within the USA.  Additionally, the EU will purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy products and with the NATO commitments previously agreed significant military purchases are anticipated. That is a major purchase agreement of $250 billion each year for the next three years.

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Congratulations America!

Thank You President Donald J Trump, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

Enjoy the golf.

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