President Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hold an impromptu press conference before departing Bedminster, New Jersey en route to the White House.

Topics included the devastating flood in Texas, Elon Musk creating a third party, the ongoing trade negotiations and pending tariffs, President Trump’s conversations with both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy as well as the upcoming visit of Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House on Monday.

As noted by Secretary Lutnick the new tariff rates go into effect August 1st.  WATCH:

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White House National Economic Chairman, Kevin Hassett, discusses the current status of the ongoing trade negotiations as the deadline for engagement windows is scheduled to close on July 9th.

As outlined by Kevin Hassett, we can expect those nations who are not in current negotiations will receive letters from President Trump letting them know that the baseline tariff rate (10%) and reciprocity rate (unknown) will be.  Large nations like India and China are currently in negotiations.  The EU collective has preliminary contact information, and a few others are in close proximity to Free Trade Agreement closure.

With the Big Beautiful Bill passed, in combination with baseline and reciprocal tariffs, the revenues to grow the GDP are in place to expand the overall U.S. economy.  WATCH:

[Transcript] – WEIJA JIANG: We turn now to Kevin Hassett. He is the director of the National Economic Council and one of President Trump’s top advisors. He’s also very popular on that driveway where I’m usually alongside about a dozen reporters. So, Kevin, thank you so much for your time this morning. I want to start with trade, because there’s a big deadline coming up on Wednesday. As you know, that 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs that the President announced back in April is set to end. So far, the US has announced a few deals; the UK, Vietnam, and you’re inching closer to a final agreement with China. Do you expect to get any more deals done with America’s biggest trading partners by Wednesday?

KEVIN HASSETT: Yeah. First, I do have to take- take a pause and share your thoughts and prayers with the people of Texas. It’s an incredible, heartbreaking story, and Kristi Noem and the President have instructed the federal government to throw everything they’ve got at helping the survivors and helping clean up that place. So, anyway, I’m really heartbroken today to see these stories, and I want you to know that in the White House, everybody is putting every effort they can into helping the people of Texas today.

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The intransigent European Union is hitting a dead end with immovable Trump on the issue of tariffs.  The resulting dynamic is what we would expect given 75 years of the Marshall Plan (European Recovery Plan) as part of the EU’s only point of reference.

In order for the EU to maintain its socialistic form of government, it needs to continue the economic benefits from one-way tariffs that exploits the American consumer market.  President Trump’s plan to force reciprocity is against its entire economic foundation.  The EU simply cannot fathom life without the status quo.

In many ways the EU is in the same position as Canada. From its perspective, economic reciprocity is not sustainable; it would have to change its social compacts. This is the core of the conflict.

The EU trade delegation hit a brick wall in Washington DC, as the U.S. trade team reiterated the baseline tariffs are not something within the negotiation dynamic.

BRUSSELS — The European Union is weighing a provisional trade deal with the United States that would maintain a 10 percent tariff on most exports, the European Commission told EU ambassadors on Friday.

The EU executive reported back after a crucial round of talks in Washington on Thursday, in which Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič sought to head off a threat by President Donald Trump to impose a 50 percent tariff on all European goods from July 9 if no deal is reached.

In addition to the baseline tariff, conversations would continue on providing relief to specific industry sectors such as cars, two national officials cited top Commission officials as saying.

The outcome fell short of expectations in European capitals after the Commission’s trade negotiating team had previously said the possibility of “up-front” tariff relief for some industries was under consideration. The U.S. levies 25 percent tariffs on cars and 50 percent on steel and aluminum. (read more)

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Huge win.  President Donald J Trump is officially unleashed.  Good stuff.

The final vote to pass the Big Beautiful Bill was 218 to 214.  The vote was almost entirely along party lines. Only Republican Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-Ukraine) and Thomas Massie (KY-Sea Isl) joined Democrats in opposition to the bill.

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Hang on to your bootstraps folks, your ability to withstand extreme winning is soon to be tested.

Who gets the first call?

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The details within the trade agreement are unique.  President Donald Trump has announced a trade agreement between the USA and Vietnam.  Interestingly Vietnam will face a 20% tariff rate (baseline) and a 40% tariff rate on transnational shipping.

The 40% transnational shipping rate is an interesting approach toward the process of China shipping goods to ASEAN countries to avoid direct tariffs. A transnational shipping tariff is a practical, pragmatic and honest way for the USA and Vietnam to face each other economically without masks and pretenses.

PRESIDENT TRUMP – “It is my Great Honor to announce that I have just made a Trade Deal with the Socialist Republic of Vietnam after speaking with To Lam, the Highly Respected General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam. It will be a Great Deal of Cooperation between our two Countries. The Terms are that Vietnam will pay the United States a 20% Tariff on any and all goods sent into our Territory, and a 40% Tariff on any Transshipping. In return, Vietnam will do something that they have never done before, give the United States of America TOTAL ACCESS to their Markets for Trade. In other words, they will “OPEN THEIR MARKET TO THE UNITED STATES,” meaning that, we will be able to sell our product into Vietnam at ZERO Tariff. It is my opinion that the SUV or, as it is sometimes referred to, Large Engine Vehicle, which does so well in the United States, will be a wonderful addition to the various product lines within Vietnam. Dealing with General Secretary To Lam, which I did personally, was an absolute pleasure. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

CTH was in the manufacturing base of Vietnam in January; their factories are loaded with component parts from China used to produce finished goods sent to the USA (and globally).  President Trump previously told Vietnam they need to reduce their reliance on Chinese imported component goods, but China has spent billions in advanced positioning and contracts, influencing Vietnam.

Vietnam is a very poor country, and their population cannot afford to purchase the products they manufacture.  They do not have a domestic consumption base. They are reliant on exports to more wealthy nations to keep their manufacturing base afloat.  Practically, it is easy to have sympathy for Vietnam due to their economic dependence on both China (for imported raw materials) and the USA (for exported finished goods).

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With the BBB back in the House of Representatives, Speaker Mike Johnson now has the difficult job to push the bill to a final floor vote and get it to President Trump’s desk.

Anticipating pushback and refusal of support from the House Freedom Caucus, earlier this morning President Trump sent a message via Truth Social drawing attention to the objective of the bill to generate economic growth:

PRESIDENT TRUMP – “Nobody wants to talk about GROWTH, which will be the primary reason that the Big, Beautiful Bill will be one of the most successful pieces of legislation ever passed. THIS GROWTH has already begun at levels never seen before. Trillions of Dollars are now being invested into the USA, more than ever before. Likewise, hundreds of Billions of Dollars in Tariffs are filling up the coffers of Treasury. The Tariff money has already arrived and is setting new records! We are growing our way out of the Sleepy Joe Biden MESS that he and the Democrats left us, and it is happening much faster than anyone thought possible. Our Country will make a fortune this year, more than any of our competitors, but only if the Big, Beautiful Bill is PASSED! As they say, Trump’s been right about everything, and this is the easiest of them all to predict. Republicans, don’t let the Radical Left Democrats push you around. We’ve got all the cards, and we are going to use them. Last year America was a “DEAD” Nation, with no hope for the future, and now it’s the “HOTTEST NATION IN THE WORLD!” MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

Meanwhile, as noted by Politico: “House Freedom Caucus members like Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) blasted the Senate’s bill Tuesday for adding to the deficit and softening clean energy tax credits. Roy and Norman both voted against the bill in the Rules Committee overnight.”

Speaker Johnson has to navigate the timing of the BBB reaching the floor, and in an effort to dissuade the concerns of the professional republican naysayers he is informing them of possible alternatives to changes in the current bill.  “In an interview on Fox News on Tuesday night, Johnson said the House will plan to do two more reconciliation bills during this session of Congress, which ends in 2026.”

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There is some interesting information within the video of President Trump aboard AF-1 as he returns from Florida. However, one of the more interesting aspects comes around 05:39 when asked if he was thinking about extending the tariff pause beyond July 8, 2025.

As noted by President Trump, very firmly, no. There is no reason to extend the deadline for reciprocal tariffs beyond July 8th for any country not in direct negotiations as of that date. Trump intends to just send them a letter outlining the applied tariff rate and that’s it. Done is done. WATCH:

This firm date is why India has extended their negotiation team in Washington DC, and is also the reason why Europe is coming Thursday.  The baseline tariffs are done, everyone pays 10% regardless of a FTA or not.  The reciprocal tariff rate will be applied to those without an FTA effective July 9th.

[The EU (who wants a trade deal now) is eventually going to align with Canada (who will need a trade deal later).  This factors into the current trade dynamic and looms over the decision making.]

Post July 9th, President Trump moves on to other important geopolitical matters with the tariffs as an ancillary weapon for adherence to the new international trade alignment.  Those who want to benefit commit to the U.S. dollar as the trade currency (that’s the reason for India’s announcement today), and trade preferences are then used to shake up the geopolitical alignments.  Watch for how this plays out with Trump’s planned UK visit.

From there, and after the gnashing of teeth settles down, later in the summer President Trump then triggers the USMCA renegotiation phase with Mexico and Canada.   President Trump is essentially ambivalent to the pleas from nations who want to continue their trade imbalance.  This sequencing and outline appears clear; but let’s watch and see what happens.

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♦ Some people just can’t take a win.  For the “I need to be outraged” group I would suggest their best time for complaining would be to join the collective association of the tech crew (Musk/Thiel), the alligator emojis (DeSantis/Cruz Crew) and the CONservative free traders (Massie, Paul, Roy).  That group of always unhappy, whining and never satisfied knuckleheads will welcome the griping, bitching and moaning.

However, that doesn’t work here. We have a big win to celebrate.

♦ The Senate version of the previously passed Big Beautiful Bill cuts more spending than originally delivered from the House.  You might ask why then did spending opposition narratives surface now and not when it passed through the House? Good question, we’ll get to that ‘political answer’ in a moment.

For now, the BBB is on track as it was originally planned (by July 4th); albeit right at the outer limits of the predicted timeframe that was announced in January.

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The Senate BBB passed on a 50-50 vote split, highlighting it was the most conservative bill that could possibly squeak through the Senate.  It is the culmination of MAGA interests -vs- MAGA opposition, with the biggest win being the $70 billion for border security and ongoing deportation operations.

The original plan was always to use rescission bills to cut out the DOGE waste. Per Senate rules, the rescissions/cuts cannot be done until after the initial funding bill is passed (that’s BBB). Timeline: July – BBB, Aug – Rescission bills to cut DOGE waste {examples}, and Sept – FY 2026 Budget bill which begins October 1st.

Additionally, the narrative about the Senate bill including Medicaid spending for illegal aliens is false.

♦ The ban on Medicaid for illegal aliens is actually stronger than initially thought [See page 602. Section 77109].  As noted by Senator Schmidt, “the bill actually goes much further than the house version – beyond banning Medicaid for 1.4 million illegal aliens, it: • Requires states to verify citizenship status before providing coverage • Bans automatic Medicaid enrollment for children of illegal aliens • Excludes DACA from Medicaid.”

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A serendipitous article about information from European Commission officials Björn Seibert and Sabine Weyand, as EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič urgently heads to Washington DC for emergency talks Thursday against the backdrop of a July 8 deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump to do a deal or face 50 percent “reciprocal” tariffs.

Let me just remind everyone the ongoing failure to recognize or accept President Trump’s position regarding both the EU and Canadian trade position with the U.S. will be their undoing.  For whatever reason, likely because it has always been thus for them, they both have a massive cognitive disconnect.

EU trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic is going to try and avoid the baseline tariffs; however, the aggregate EU now accepts after reviewing the details of the U.S-UK trade agreement, they will not be able to get below 10%.  This alone has them considerably triggered.

The only real tariff positions the EU have to try and escape are the auto tariffs (25%) and Steel/Aluminum (50%).  There is no way for them to avoid the baseline 10% on everything.   Keep in mind President Trump will add a tariff surcharge for Spain’s refusal to meet their NATO obligations.  Trump cannot single out Spain, so the entire EU will be punished with the surcharge for not bringing them into line.

BRUSSELS — The outline of a trade deal between the EU and the U.S. is taking shape. It would contain a baseline 10 percent U.S. tariff, relief for specific industries and an “up-front” U.S. commitment to tariff relief, four diplomats told POLITICO.

[…] Brussels is pushing to secure a U.S. commitment to “up-front” tariff relief at the time of the agreement in principle, according to the diplomats. This would resemble a deal already struck by the U.K. with Washington, which offered tariff exemptions on auto and steel exports while talks on a comprehensive deal continue. A number of EU countries told the Commission no deal of any kind would be possible without such relief.

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“Elbows up” and knees bent. As expected given the nature of their dependency, the Canadian government has rescinded the digital services tax against U.S. tech companies.

The June 30th collection is halted and the Canadian government led by Mark Carney will be bringing legislation to rescind the tax entirely.

CANADA – […] Minister of Finance and National Revenue, the Honourable François-Philippe Champagne, announced today that Canada would rescind the Digital Services Tax (DST) in anticipation of a mutually beneficial comprehensive trade arrangement with the United States. Consistent with this action, Prime Minister Carney and President Trump have agreed that parties will resume negotiations with a view towards agreeing on a deal by July 21, 2025.

The DST was announced in 2020 to address the fact that many large technology companies operating in Canada may not otherwise pay tax on revenues generated from Canadians. Canada’s preference has always been a multilateral agreement related to digital services taxation. While Canada was working with international partners, including the United States, on a multilateral agreement that would replace national digital services taxes, the DST was enacted to address the aforementioned taxation gap.

The June 30, 2025 collection will be halted, and Minister Champagne will soon bring forward legislation to rescind the Digital Services Tax Act. (LINK)

In the bigger picture Canada has a serious problem.

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