The issue inside Iran is essentially: 50,000 extremist clerics and IRGC members are holding 90 million people as hostages to a fanatical religious regime. Hopefully the economic oil embargo will eventually begin to fray this Gordian Knot.
In the last two weeks, President Trump has forcefully and publicly been pushing back against the aggressive posture of Israel. While the Arab partners in the region are aligned with Trump on the issue of “extremism” and radicalism, thereby supporting the confrontation with Iranian religious extremists – those same regional partners also consider Israeli conduct in Gaza and Lebanon as religious “extremism.”
STATEMENT OF PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP:
“Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal. I have therefore directed our Military to continue the Blockade and, in all other respects, remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other.” ~ President DONALD J. TRUMP
The totality of the intelligence chatter must be overwhelming.
A wonderful Muslim professor I had in college used to tell us constantly that the only way, historically, that Islam has ever been able to effectively deal with its zealots is to just put all of them down. Mass executions or war. It was true in the 1200s and it’s still true today.
Nothing will be possible in Iran, I fear, until the entire group of hardliners is taken out. Which cannot be done just with airstrikes and economic pressure. The problem with putting US boots on the ground, however, is that their presence will draw in individuals from all over the Muslim world looking to fight the infidels and die, just like what happened in Iraq.
The best case scenario is that the Iranians take care of their nutjobs themselves, I’m guessing, but the pressure needed to make that happen might just lead to other problems (ie, cutting off the oil exports entirely leads to wells eventually being shut down and made un-recoverable, etc)
There seems to be a lot of weight being given, by our side, to the idea that Iran’s oil wells will be damaged, if the embargo holds very long. Will it cause the IRGC to lay down their weapons and stop the war? Absolutely not. They can just dump the oil into the gulf and set it on fire. They are fanatics, and they don’t care.
Does anyone remember how, in 2017 I think, not one but two of our destroyers were put out of commission, because of collisions with merchant ships near China? That was no accident. Think that can’t happen again? If we lose just one ship, the blockade will be over. If we lose a ship and sailors, Congress will get into the act and pull the plug. There is no good alternative to winning the war.
We were not under hostile action with the situation in 2017.
I dont think that normal maritime protocol allows the US Navy to sink another boat for coming close.
In this instance they have war footing and anything on the water that breaches the security buffer will be eliminated.
The U.S. Navy can and most definitely should sink any vessel operated by the IRGC whether found in Iranian territorial waters or elsewhere. An existential threat to both our ships and those of other nations.
Just my opinion, but this “Iran can just dump the oil into the gulf and set it on fire” idea, without anything done by our military, is going to be a nonstarter.
My opinion is simply based on the TAW maxim. Sticking to it.
I await developments, as always, with patience.
Even fanaticism has to be financed ..How can they retain power without money?
They can retain power without money by cannibalizing their own people.
What…no…absurd….think harder….
They will confiscate the assets of the people and divide them up amongst themselves. That is not absurd. They hang people from bucket loaders.
Let’s remember that George W Bush, using the standard Pentagon playbook, took full control of Iraq in 26 days. In Iran, the clock is ticking. Time is not on our side, because each day that passes and the IRGC has not capitulated means the odds have increased that we will leave without finishing the job. This ceasefire has pulled us back from winning the war.
For some reason, we are confounding our objectives. If we were not, the Strait of Hormuz would be open, because the Marines would be on the Iranian shore clearing out the threats to shipping. We have all the air cover they would need right there. All the drones and mines and speedboats would be destroyed, and the ships would traverse freely. And that is what our allies, the gulf states, want.
Paul Nemi. “If we lose just one ship, the blockade will be over. If we lose a ship and sailors, Congress will get into the act and pull the plug. There is no good alternative to winning the war.“
Lol. You aren’t paying attention. A keyboard warrior fighting the last war. You wish that to be true, but Persians are not fools like the Palestinians. They can see that the Congress does not control Trump so easily.
I think it’ll be a financial meltdown before Irans storage runs out. No need to dump it anytime soon.
Wondering how much opposition comes from there as it does here. IRGC seems to be everywhere and its easy to use lives when you’re not a part of the fray. President Trump and his team appear to have a hard grasp on what will best work. As we all are aware, money or the lack thereof speaks loudly but President Trump can make it squeal.
IMO Iran is made to look like the big kid on the block but who hides their contributions to terrorism? Turkey. They give $ to fund the proxy wars but as they are part of NATO nobody talks.
Here’s an alternative view: What if many in the IRGC and the clerics really aren’t complete religious zealots? Many people put up a good show, but at core, are just crooks desiring money and status. Now you take all their ongoing income away. What will they do?
That my friend sounds like the Congress and Senate members in the USA.
Nope.
They are 12th Imam Shiites.
Willing to destroy the world in order to usher in their vision of “paradise.”
When Generals Lee and Jackson inspected the pillaged town of Fredericksburg, Virginia after the battle of December, 1862, Lee asked, “What do we do with these people?”
Jackson replied, “Kill them all.”
I am afraid that is what will be necessary with regards to hardliners in Iran.
Apparently the IRGC took the ceasefire to heart and seized two cargo ships in the Gulf of Oman this morning. They seem to be taking the ships to ports along the southern coast of Iran outside Hormuz. The President must allow the Navy to stop this crap, and do it now. Continuing the “cease fire” on a one sided basis is a huuuugggeee mistake.
Iran has long been accused of moving the goalposts, whereby Tehran agrees in principle to limits on its nuclear program or sanctions relief, only to introduce fresh demands, reinterpret prior commitments, or escalate its activities once talks appear close to fruition. It is their standard operating procedure.
Haggling is hard, Heres an example
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/OT0CKc0vKmg
lol!
Here is how Trump does it. It’s the Western Way
I am curious about any update on the seized vessel Touska that disregarded US instructions and attempted to gain access to Iranian ports. When investigated, it appears that the cargo vessel was carrying military weaponry from China. Any word since???
Tankers loaded with Iranian crude & refined products should be allowed to enter the Arabian Sea, then redirected to Europe, Japan, Taiwan, the U.S. west coast–anywhere but China. Iranian crude & refined products will restrain prices for both and ease the supply crunch. The U.S. should keep all sales revenues. Denying China Iranian crude & refined products should cause China to pressure Iran to behave better. Denying Iran sales revenues should also incentivize better behavior.
An alternative tactic is: Holding Iranian tankers “hostage” until Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE and other Persian Gulf producers each move at least one fully loader tanker into the Arabian Sea. That will collapse crude & refined prices, thereby hurting Iran’s tyrants. Their suffering could be intensified by 2 additional measures.
1) The US should keep & sell some Iranian loads.
2) The US should divert Iranian ships from China. OR, Iranian ships can deliver to China, but the selling price is the full international price (not the deeply discounted price caused by sanctions). Both tactics should cause China to pressure Iran to behave better. AND, the U.S. should pocket a large share of the money China pays for Iranian crude & refined products.