A serendipitous article about information from European Commission officials Björn Seibert and Sabine Weyand, as EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič urgently heads to Washington DC for emergency talks Thursday against the backdrop of a July 8 deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump to do a deal or face 50 percent “reciprocal” tariffs.
Let me just remind everyone the ongoing failure to recognize or accept President Trump’s position regarding both the EU and Canadian trade position with the U.S. will be their undoing. For whatever reason, likely because it has always been thus for them, they both have a massive cognitive disconnect.
EU trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic is going to try and avoid the baseline tariffs; however, the aggregate EU now accepts after reviewing the details of the U.S-UK trade agreement, they will not be able to get below 10%. This alone has them considerably triggered.
The only real tariff positions the EU have to try and escape are the auto tariffs (25%) and Steel/Aluminum (50%). There is no way for them to avoid the baseline 10% on everything. Keep in mind President Trump will add a tariff surcharge for Spain’s refusal to meet their NATO obligations. Trump cannot single out Spain, so the entire EU will be punished with the surcharge for not bringing them into line.
BRUSSELS — The outline of a trade deal between the EU and the U.S. is taking shape. It would contain a baseline 10 percent U.S. tariff, relief for specific industries and an “up-front” U.S. commitment to tariff relief, four diplomats told POLITICO.
[…] Brussels is pushing to secure a U.S. commitment to “up-front” tariff relief at the time of the agreement in principle, according to the diplomats. This would resemble a deal already struck by the U.K. with Washington, which offered tariff exemptions on auto and steel exports while talks on a comprehensive deal continue. A number of EU countries told the Commission no deal of any kind would be possible without such relief.
[…] EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is flying to Washington for a crunch round of talks on Thursday with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. He is due to brief EU countries on their outcome on Friday.
In this potentially decisive round, Šefčovič is expected to signal that the EU still hopes to reduce the 10 baseline tariff that Trump imposed on most U.S. trading partners in April. However, under certain conditions, the bloc will say it could accept the 10 percent, according to the diplomats, who were granted anonymity to speak candidly about the closed-door talks.
Second, the EU is pushing for lower rates for key sectors, such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, alcohol and commercial aircraft — as sought by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The Commission, however, “sees the chance for this happening as quite small,” one of the diplomats said.
Additionally, Brussels still hopes to bargain down Washington’s tariffs of 25 percent on cars and 50 percent on steel and aluminum. According to another diplomat, concessions on steel are most likely, while the first diplomat quoted above said the idea would be to “create a ring of protection” around the EU and the U.S. against Chinese overproduction. (more)
President Trump is a modern honey badger on these issues. He genuinely doesn’t care about the EU position and is perfectly willing to send them a letter outlining their tariff rate. The EU just cannot fathom this level of in-your-face ambivalence.
With the BBB battle almost behind us, MAGA is on the cusp of a whole ‘nuther level of winning; international edition.
Put a fat wad of Wolverine hair in your bong and toke it, Eurotrash!
Pay up, amigos.
Hope Trump does not budge an inch on the steel and auto tariffs. I would also punish them for screwing the technical companies with their rulings which extract millions in fines from the major tech and software companies. Particularly MSFT, Oracle, Google and Apple.
I’ve long been a fan of German Autos and firearms. I’ve given up the fantasy of owning a Mercedes or Beemer on account of that possibility of being driven into oncoming traffic by remote control.
That won’t happen ,however, you will be driven into the bankrupt lane by unreliability overpriced spare parts and labor costs, and idiotic insurance rates.
Why bother?
There’s Jinxy! 🤣👍
This news makes me feel warm inside! Go MAGA! Go Trump! Go USA! There is a new horizon!
The amount of pretending and the level of stupidity, incompetence, ignorance, and corruption around the world is staggering. Something needs to be done to force governments and corporations to do what is right for everyone. I keep dreaming for a secret weapon.
It’s very quaint, the EU welfare queens think they “have the cards”.
The secret weapon is Donald Trump
The EU was a “Vitamultin K” induced fever dream of Hitler. it’s not going to get better from here. Especially their censorship laws..
Add the UK censorship laws to that.
Never get tired of seeing this picture. It’s worth 1,000,000 words. Even the warmonger in the background can hardly believe what he’s hearing.
Norman Rockwell-ish….
seen it many times…1st time I’ve gotten that vibe…..
Haha – it is kind of “Norman Rockwell-ish”!
One of my FAVORITE Trump 1.0 photos!!!
Mine too and especially because Abe is in it.
I love this one. And its close cousin…the same, but with a vault behind President Trump clutching an oversized key to it.
But I can’t look at this brilliant photo without still grieving the loss of President Trump’s great friend Shinzo Abe. The body language says it all.
That short, sharp intake of breath.
I’m sure our VSGDJT very much misses him as well.
He and PDJT completely mirroring one another.
Yes, he is missed.
Gotta get the full picture in there…
The most unforgetable photo from The Presidents first term.
Example Context:
Rumor has it that Elon Musk will be the first person sent to the Alligator Alcatraz Deportation Center.
And don’t forget: out-of-wedlock baby maker! Singlehandedly populating Mars.
Navarro was my favorite PDJT team member first term.
Slainte btw Seth. Good to see you!
Yeah, Musk stealing taxpayer dollars with the Green New Steal. If electric cars are the wave of the future, they’ll do just fine without government subsidies.
Electric cars is an unworkable idea. Always was.
Former?
Thank you for protecting the reputation of Peter Navarro. He is a loyal MAGA American and very intelligent.
I am so happy! After 4 years of absolute despair, we are winning!
We had to walk in the darkness to get to the sunshine.
The EU elites (is that redundant?) and their poor cousin Canadians view the US as uncouth, uncultured rif-raf. It hasn’t even crossed their minds that the majority of us would rather die a slow painful death than be like them!
It’s true. Their arrogance precedes their downfall (some of this mentality is present here as well).
Unconquered, as someone who IS dying a slow painful death, I fully endorse this comment. I was born an American, lived as a patriotic American, God willing, I will die a patriotic American. Trade full clean bill of health to be a Euroweenie? No deal, I will play the hand dealt.
Yours in Christ
Daniel Holmes
Amen!
BTW, I’m sad for your pain. Prayers that it is eased.
God bless you Daniel.
“The EU just cannot fathom this level of in-your-face ambivalence.”
That is because all of our Presidents since RW Reagan have been deep state shills proffered to the electorate to provide the illusion that they had a choice. Until PDJT came along.
Which is why the entrenched uniparty has to be dragged kicking and screaming to do anything MAGA.
Deplorable_Infidel: So true. All the EU snots, and all their DC enablers (who benefit most of all, financially) want a big fat slice of American pie and being denieds causes them fits.
Same goes for Canada — same snots, pie grabbers, and fit throwers.
Getting a free ride for almost 80 years wasn’t good enough for them.
Meanwhile we lost our manufacturing base and millions lost their livelihood/way of life, all while the lying sack of s*** politicians claimed it was just the way things happened and nothing to do with them.
Council On Foreign Relations ran the Bush,Clinton,Obama,Autopen Administrations. They despise PDJT, but Heritage America loves him.
Definitely not used to all this winning !
The EU countries have a new awakening coming and right soon.
So, I assume Hondas made in the US have no tariff, but ones made in Japan do? I can live with that.
Depends on the % of parts made in America put into the American made ones I believe.
I believe that PDJT is working out deals that take into account “parts made in America” while we are all waiting for manufacturing plants making these parts to be built in America.
A lot of Honda’s come from Mexico and Canada.
the EU weasels must of figured out they can’t survive 3.5 years of Tariffs
Sundance told you the tariffs are here to stay.
For your info,
Spending? Congress and the media have a vested interest in hiding the truth from the American public because factually everything in the BBB is fully funded. I know, I know, many people are saying, “wait, fully funded? How is that possible?”
Here’s the part everyone keeps missing. Within the global trade reset President Trump has established a baseline 10% tariff. That means from this moment until the end of time every country will pay a minimum of 10% tariffs on every single import. Even if they get a free trade agreement (FTA) with the U.S. the baseline 10% remains, just like the U.K. deal recently completed.
Yes, steel and aluminum and other targeted tariffs may exceed the baseline 10%, but the baseline will always remain at 10% for everything imported. There will never be an item delivered to the USA that does not include a 10% baseline tariff.
That baseline 10% tariff revenue -in perpetuity- funds the BBB spending and all of the associated middle-class tax relief within it. Tariff revenues create a neutral state of spending impact. This fact is why and how the White House convinced the House and Senate on the deal.
Spending? Congress and the media have a vested interest in hiding the truth from the American puIn material fact, even a future Democrat political apparatus will never be able to discontinue the 10% baseline tariffs because they will be dependent on the revenue generated. Tariff revenue makes spending possible, that stops Democrats from withdrawing it. In a way President Trump has lowered the income tax burden by shifting revenue to tariffs.blic because factually everything in the BBB is fully funded. I know, I know, many people are saying, “wait, fully funded? How is that possible?”
Here’s the part everyone keeps missing. Within the global trade reset President Trump has established a baseline 10% tariff. That means from this moment until the end of time every country will pay a minimum of 10% tariffs on every single import. Even if they get a free trade agreement (FTA) with the U.S. the baseline 10% remains, just like the U.K. deal recently completed.
Yes, steel and aluminum and other targeted tariffs may exceed the baseline 10%, but the baseline will always remain at 10% for everything imported. There will never be an item delivered to the USA that does not include a 10% baseline tariff.
That baseline 10% tariff revenue -in perpetuity- funds the BBB spending and all of the associated middle-class tax relief within it. Tariff revenues create a neutral state of spending impact. This fact is why and how the White House convinced the House and Senate on the deal.
In material fact, even a future Democrat political apparatus will never be able to discontinue the 10% baseline tariffs because they will be dependent on the revenue generated. Tariff revenue makes spending possible, that stops Democrats from withdrawing it. In a way President Trump has lowered the income tax burden by shifting revenue to tariffs.
“.. The EU just cannot fathom this level of in-your-face ambivalence..”
Definitely that cognitive dissonance thingy you mentioned a few paragraphs above.
“Trump cannot single out Spain, so the entire EU will be punished with the surcharge for not bringing them into line.”
Make Collective Punishment Great Again !!!
(Ducking for cover)
A lot of people mocked the reciprocal tariff formula which was basically the trade deficit divided by overall trade but actually it is brilliant because of the baseline tariff, not to mention it aids greatly in trade negotiations! The USA actually has a trade surplus with the UK, yet the UK had to pay the baseline tariff which is nonnegotiable with Trump.
The reciprocal tariffs come on top of that to account for all of the things that have led to chronic trade deficits whether it’s tariffs or non-tariff barriers. So the reciprocal tariff formula ties trade deficits to the amount of tariff that is paid above the baseline.
If a country eliminates the trade deficit then they get only the baseline tariff. If they run any deficit then they pay a corresponding rate above the baseline.
Add to this the sectoral tariffs, which is meant to protect key U.S. industries and to reshore certain industrial capacity to the USA and we are talking about some serious tariff revenue coming into the USA!
If countries work to eliminate their trade deficits by opening up their markets to USA goods and services, then they will only pay the baseline plus the USA gets the jobs from increased exports.
The trade agenda of Donald Trump is the prize. It will make our nation far stronger and richer than it has been in a long time. It will bring back jobs and investments to the country. And it will stabilize our fiscal house with increase revenues from the baseline, sectoral and reciprocal tariffs!
Get rid of the illegals feasting at the free buffet, change the entitled mindset of lazy Americans over time (Liberals mainly), bring about a boom in US innovation, production, income, and exports and we WILL see the deficit shrink. We didn’t get here overnight and neither will be dig our way out overnight, but this is the beginning.
A stake in the hearts of the globalist vampires is a good thing.
And sunlight and holy water for good measure!! 😂
Thinking about picking up the July 10 SPY $610 puts—curious what you all think.
Here’s the setup: tariffs are scheduled to go back into effect on July 8, ending the 90-day pause Trump announced back in April. Last time tariffs actually went live—on April 2—the market got smoked. SPY dropped about 3.5% intraday, and the broader S&P lost nearly 10% in just two sessions before rebounding when the tariffs were paused on April 9.
Fast forward to now—SPY is back at all-time highs, around $617. The market seems to be assuming either another delay or that tariffs don’t matter. But if they go into effect on schedule, we could see a sharp pullback like last time.
I’m not trying to call a crash. I just think there’s a real shot at a quick 1–2.5% drop or a volatility spike that could reprice risk fast. If SPY drops just 1.2%, that’s a move to $610. A 2.5% drop like April 2 would land SPY around $602–$605. That’s why I’m looking at the July 10 $610 puts. They give me:
The premium’s reasonable, and the $610 strike gives me enough proximity to catch the move without overpaying for delta. It’s not a YOLO trade—I just think this is a clean way to express a short-term view without going full short.
By no means am I advocating to do this. I would love to hear thoughts.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
I know nothing about the ins and outs of the market or the SPY (etf?)…that said….the DOW closed up 400 somewhere around 44,807?…Futures are showing right now, 44,820.
Is it ‘real’ or just a giddy emotional rise? And they tell us never to buy or sell based on ’emotion’.
The SPY is at an all time high yet the % of ATH stocks is under 30%. Setups have been coming in for months with small breakouts that do not follow through. The index is masking the story and institutions haven’t gone risk on. This is a set up for a 5% to 10% pull back.
Thanks.
I’m thinking about the current RSI being around 68–70. That matches the same technical pattern seen before the April tariff drop. That reinforces the logic behind my July 10 $610 put.
They align both with event risk and lingering overbought momentum.
I think most institutions are set for summer and will have their trades programmed based upon retail reactions.
I agree
I’m no expert in options trading, but I really think you need more data first. Meaning I believe the Wolverines will soon be releasing the list of countries who have made trade agreements prior to the 9th. If they come back strong, I don’t see a market correction that significant happening, if one at all?
Spain is going to be a major thorn in the EU’s side. They may single-handedly be the demise of the EU as these countries may begin to splinter from each other for more judicious/lucrativ/protective bi-lateral trade deals.
is it too early to initiate a gofundme account to finance the addition of the usa’s greatest president on mt. rushmore?
I’m in!
Is the Party Over for Bushism? (Yes it is, its PDJT-MAGA-Party)
https://buchanan.org/blog/is-the-party-over-for-bushism-125448
Party hearty!
the evolution of ai and robotics will soon strip the low-wage countries of their cost saving economic leverage
sooner than many may realize
along with the tarrifs, this is a huge reason multi-nationals are bringing facilities back to the good ol usa
the resulting trillions of incoming tax and investment dollars will propel the usa to historic economic heights, and quickly
and we all owe it to the stable genius
God placed him on our side for a reason
An important NATO thing to remember……
Each NATO country has agreed to spend 5% on defense by 2035……BY 2035…..
We……the US……need to match the NATO average of defense spending……
I don’t trust NATO.
I would love for Trump to take our troops out Europe and get us out of NATO.
if they do not pay their 5% then pull same relevant troops and bases out and save more taxpayers money & plus dissolving Nato which is protected via past bills
Unfortunately Trump is only president until 2028. The EU and NATO is counting on that fact. The question is who is JD Vance and is able to maintain Trump’s leverage if he assumes the presidency in 2028?
No Quokka in the ‘friends’ line up?
Someone described Hassett in a prior thread as a were-quokka. But it doesn’t take a full moon for his true nature to emerge.
Stick it to them President Trump!
Euro is not the Hulk. More like Willy Lumpkin. Sorry, Willy.
The hulk didn’t die. In fact, he came back to kick the crap out of Wolverine. I know this comic. Savage Wolverine #5. Hulk recovers in an angrier state and pummels Wolverine to a pulp.
😆
I always wanted a principled businessman or woman to run the country like a Fortune 500 successful company. The nattering naybobs of negativity get the mickey middle finger.
This too was what I told my friends, family and anybody else willing to listen: You need a Business Executive to run the Executive branch. The Founders were very spot on.
Go, go, Donny go
Go, go Donny go, go Donny do good! I’d suggest 33.33% adjusted for inflation annually.
I will never get tired of winning.
What a time in history to be alive. 🙏❤️🇺🇸👍
Trump is just giving us a fair playing field. Personally I wish the tariffs would kick in until at least the end of July to try and offset the thievery that’s been going on for years.
Those are wolverines…but I love this post!
I’m very sick of funding the European fantasyland.
We’re like the battered spouse that works like a dog to support a trophy wife hellbent on keeping up with the Kardashians.
I’m done with this.
Our people are a mess, our country is a mess, we need to entirely focus on our own issues now and let them figure out how to pay their own bills.
We need to declare our independence from these parasites once again.
The Marshall Plan should have been sunsetted in the 1970s if not sooner.
Like President Trump always says the EU was created to screw the USA. Now its our turn to finally turn the tables and screw the EU.
The difference between a business man who understands business, and a politician who understands BS.
That there is one darn good quote!
As historic as the last 2-3 weeks have been for President Trump, the post-BBB period will accelerate the history making to warp speed. I never get tired of winning!
Certainly looking good. The linchpin is the BBB.
“The EU just cannot fathom this level of in-your-face ambivalence.”
You mean the same level of ambivalence the US has faced when trying to negotiate increased NATO funding since Jan. 20, 2017 or reduction of tariffs on US goods? Imagine that!