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MSM Noticing MAGAnomics Benefits Mostly Middle-Class, While BLS Job Openings Still Outpace Workforce…

While the MSM financial/wage reporting is two days apart from the BLS “JOLTS” release on job openings, the relationship is direct and connected.
CNBC is noticing the upward wage pressure is focused heavily on the middle-class workers and lower end of the labor market; another KPI (Key Performance Indicator) the economy is stronger than most financial pundits are admitting:

CNBC – The recent jump in paychecks has come with an unusual characteristic, as workers at the lower end of the pay scale are getting the greater benefit.
Average hourly earnings rose 3.4 percent in February from the same period a year ago, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report last week. That’s the biggest gain since April 2009 and seventh month in a row that compensation has been 3 percent or better.

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USMCA Consequences – Toyota Increases U.S. Investment to $13 Billion, Expands Component Manufacturing in AL, KY, MO, TN, and WV…

Toyota made a huge announcement today [SEE HERE] that’s a direct outcome of the NAFTA replacement USMCA trade deal; and the new 75% rule of origin within the Auto sector.


The Toyota announcement is a total of $13 billion investment and includes expanded component part production in: Alabama ($288 million), Kentucky ($238 million), Missouri ($62 million), Tennessee ($50 million) and West Virginia ($111 million).   Additionally, Toyota will open a new assembly plant in Huntsville, Alabama ($1.5 billion) and serious investments in several other areas. [Details Here]
The guiding decision here relates specifically to the construct of the USMCA (NAFTA replacement).   Toyota was previously focused on multi-billion-dollar investments in Canada as they exploited the NAFTA loophole and procured component parts from Asia for North American assembly and shipment into the U.S. Market.  However, when they renegotiated NAFTA and created the USMCA President Trump and USTR Lighthizer closed closed the loophole.
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BLS Labor Report: 20,000 February Jobs, Wage Increase 3.4%…

The BLS employment report for February is very underwhelming with a mere 20,000 new jobs calculated and results that fall far short of expectations.  The recent private sector ADP payroll report showed 183,000 gains.  Despite the low reported jobs gains, the national unemployment number dropped to 3.8%.
Further confounding the low February BLS calculations, revisions to December and January were upward. December’s jobs were revised up from +222,000 to +227,000 (gaining 5k), and the change for January was revised up from +304,000 to +311,000 (+7k). With these revisions, employment gains in December and January combined were 12,000 more than previously reported. Job gains now average 186,000 per month over the last three months.
On a very positive note the calculated wage growth continues to reflect a tight labor market where employers are increasing wages well beyond inflation. “In February, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 11 cents to $27.66, following a 2-cent gain in January. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.4 percent.” That is the strongest sustained wage growth in a decade.

(Source Link)

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MAGAnomic BLS Report: Continued Strong Productivity and Wage Growth…

Economic analysis can get weedy…. so a simple way to look at productivity is to think about baking bread in your kitchen.
If you were going to bake 4 loaves of bread it might take you 2 hrs start to finish. However, if you were going to bake 8 loaves of bread it would not take you twice as long because most of the tasks can be accomplished with simple increases in batch size, and only minor increases in labor time. Your productivity measured in the last four loaves is higher.
Economic Productivity is measured much the same way, within what’s called a production probability equation. Additionally, if two hours of your time are worth $40, each of four loaves of bread costs $10; but if you make 8 loaves in the same amount of time the labor cost is only $5/per loaf.
From 2007 through 2017 the average rate of productivity increase was 1.3%. In the fourth quarter of 2018 productivity was 1.9%.  That means total business output increased as more product was demanded from within the business operation. Throughout the economy people just wanted more stuff.  However, the most important numbers for MAGAnomics (Main Street USA) center around manufacturing and durable goods.
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Navarro Stands The Gap…

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro has been a core member of the U.S. trade team providing a brutally honest perspective toward how specific trade engagements can directly benefit the U.S. economy and U.S. worker.
Navarro has gained a reputation as a trade hawk, specifically as it relates to confronting the one-sided trade schemes of China.  However, that encapsulation doesn’t accurately reflect Mr. Navarro’s value.
The Big Club hates him.  Yes, Navarro is hated and opposed by all the right people.  He might be rough around the edges, but he fights… for ‘America First‘.
Navarro is unapologetic in openly calling attention to the process where Wall Street, the multinationals (corporations and banks) have gained power and influence over politicians in Washington DC.  Wall Street funnels hundreds-of-millions to Tom Dohohue, President of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.  Donohue controls an army of K-Street lobbyists who purchase politicians and sell their CoC created legislation.
Specifically because he calls attention to the brutal truth of a corrupt process, he has become the target of attacks from Wall Street’s beneficiaries, the big club and Decepticon senators who take massive campaign bribes from Tom Donohue.
In a recent Op-ed, Peter Navarro highlights how the Trump economic team is delivering on a promise for structural global trade reform that directly benefits the U.S. economy, U.S. workers, and Main Street USA.
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CEA Chairman Kevin Hassett Cautiously Optimistic on Lighthizer's Progress…

U.S. Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer’s work on the U.S-China trade negotiations is easily the most technically challenging and legally complex trade deal in the history of U.S. Commerce.
Lighthizer is not focused on selling more U.S. product, he is focused on bigger issues and enforcement therein.
Think about it.  This is a deal between a U.S. open market economy and a communist controlled closed market economy in China.  No nation has a comprehensive trade deal with China on anything except individual business sectors.
Despite China’s entry into the World Trade Organization, no nation has ever achieved anything close to an aggregate FTA (Free Trade Agreement) with China.  This deal would be the first comprehensive deal, and as such Lighthizer is essentially mapping out an agreement that all other nations could follow….  This is big-league.
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Canadian Economy Halts – GDP Growth Drops to 0.1 Percent, and No-One Is Talking About Why…

The Canadian government shocked the professional financial and economic media with their latest fourth quarter GDP release showing the economy has essentially come to a grinding halt at 0.1% growth.  [Compare to U.S. GDP growth of 3%]
The Canadian Q4 GDP growth isn’t one percent, it’s one-tenth of one percent: 0.1%, essentially halted; but everyone discussing this is missing something very important.
First, The Financial Post headline:

[FP] Canada’s economy practically came to a halt in the final three months of 2018, in a much deeper-than-expected slowdown that brings the underlying strength of the expansion into doubt.
The country’s economy grew by just 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter, for an annualized pace of 0.4 per cent, Statistics Canada said Friday from Ottawa. That’s the worst quarterly performance in two and a half years, down from annualized 2 per cent in the third quarter and well below economist expectations for a 1 per cent annualized increase.

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IMPORTANT – Kudlow on China: Layered, Sequential, Sector Tariffs as Enforcement Mechanism…

Okay, now USTR Robert Lighthizer’s cautiously worded enforcement testimony starts to take on a fuller context.  When Ambassador Lighthizer was testifying before the mostly decepticon House Ways and Means Committee, he started to outline his newly designed trade enforcement mechanism… but he stopped; he didn’t want to reveal too much.
Now listen to Larry Kudlow describe “enforcement”.  WATCH:


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If you watched the USTR testimony you would have seen how the “enforcement” mechanism within the U.S-China trade negotiations was the priority for Lighthizer’s focus; and he specifically mentioned “layered” enforcement triggers, specific to each sector, and issue.
CTH has never seen a U.S. Trade Representative so structurally willing to clear-cut the entire bamboo forest if needed. Lighthizer is intensely focused on enforcement.
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CEA Chairman Kevin Hassett Discusses GDP Growth…

White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Kevin Hassett discusses the U.S. economy’s 2.6 percent growth in the fourth quarter, and the outlook for the U.S. economy through the rest of 2019.


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Notice how most of the financial pundits are focusing on what the “global economy” needs; specifically what the EU and China need to do to gain economic growth.  From that position, the U.S. trade reset is adverse to their financial interest; those financial interests are driven by Wall Street not Main Street.
Economic nationalists who understand the concept of ‘America First’ focus on what the USA economy needs, and do not accept a position that the U.S. should acquiesce our position to benefit the economic needs of other nations.  That’s the primary difference.
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GDP Release: 4th Quarter Growth 2.6%, 2018 Annualized 2.9%, 2018 Yearly Real GDP 3.1%…

The Bureau of Economic Analysis, BEA, finally released the fourth quarter growth rate estimate for 2018.  The 4th quarter growth result at 2.6% exceeded expectations, and shows the U.S. economy is growing stronger than almost all economic forecasts.

WASHINGTON DC – In the fourth-quarter, U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 2.6%, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Thursday’s report beat expectations, with consensus economists polled by Bloomberg looking for growth to slow to 2.2% during the final three months of the year. The domestic economy grew at a pace of 3.4% in the third quarter and 4.2% in the second quarter.

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