T-Rex and Twinkles

Against the backdrop of NAFTA renegotiation that appears headed for certain doom, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson appears contrast against the overly familiar Canadian Foreign Minister Mrs. Twinkles and Rainbows Chrystia Freeland.  I doubt you could find two individual personalities more divergent (watch you’ll see “Rex”?):

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[Transcript] FOREIGN MINISTER FREELAND: Okay. Hi, everybody. Great to see everyone here. Before I begin, I’d like to extend Canada’s thoughts and condolences to our American guests in light of the terrible train derailment in Washington state. We extend our sympathies to those who lost loved ones and wish a full and swift recovery to the injured.
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USTR Robert Lighthizer is attending the World Trade Organization (WTO) summit in Argentina.

[…] Ahead of the meeting, the United States blocked efforts to draft a joint statement emphasizing the “centrality” of the global trade system and the need to aid development. Its opposition has raised concerns that the WTO will not be able to accomplish even modest goals, such as addressing fishing and agricultural subsidies, at the conference. (Reuters)

The Ambassador’s opening remarks to the conference are below and include Lighthizer rightly informing the WTO that the Trump administration believes they have strayed far away from trade issues and are now, essentially, uni-focused on litigation.  He’s right.

[Transcript] “I would like to start by thanking the government of Argentina for hosting MC11, and Minister Malcorra, Director General Azevedo, and their staffs for their excellent work. We appreciate all the effort over many months that go into creating a conference of this magnitude.
In the brief time I have, I would like to make a few basic points.
First, the WTO is obviously an important institution. It does an enormous amount of good, and provides a helpful negotiating forum for Contracting Parties.  But, in our opinion, serious challenges exist.
Second, many are concerned that the WTO is losing its essential focus on negotiation and becoming a litigation-centered organization. Too often members seem to believe they can gain concessions through lawsuits that they could never get at the negotiating table. We have to ask ourselves whether this is good for the institution and whether the current litigation structure makes sense.
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You hired a man who developed a life of very specific skills.  A man who knows how to use those unorthodox skills to generate intensely competent results.  Relax, enjoy them…

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Two thoughts:  Oh, POTUS is enjoying this; and the pine-cone-on-his-chair-look on Flake’s face is, well, priceless.  Also, remember that NAFTA prediction about timing, strategic patience, etc.? Well…
THE PRESIDENT: Well, thank you very much. I appreciate everybody coming in.
We had some very late nights getting the tax-cut bill to conference. Last was very smooth, and I think we’re going to make it so that it comes out very beautifully. I call it “the mixer.” It’s a conference where everyone gets together and they pick all the good things and get rid of the things they don’t like.
But it’s a fantastic bill for the middle class. It’s a fantastic bill for jobs and for companies wanting to bring back massive amounts of money into our country. It’s really — I view it more than anything else, is it’s a tremendous bill for jobs and for the middle class.
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Back in 2015 we described the basic principles behind MAGAnomics. CTH continually reminds people that for most Americans under age 45 they have NEVER seen, or participated in, a fully functional U.S. economy. There’s a reason for those reminders.
The Main Street economy is like a train that has sat idle for three decades. MAGAnomics is that train’s engine. President Trump’s ‘America-First’ economic policy agenda is the starter fluid and the super-fuel.
After the initial blast of quick-start is applied, the engine ignites, coughs, backfires loudly, clears out the cylinders… then slowly -awakening- it begins to auto-sync… It winds up as the internal energy builds… Then comes that first, familiar and glorious roar:

Remember, this economic engine has not yet been put into gear.  She has gained more than 3% GDP growth while tuning herself.  Once this glorious American industrial machine gets moving, there ain’t much that can ever stop it…
The prior usurping economic control agents starved her of fuel to shut her down.
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CTH has been looking, unsuccessfully, for China SME’s who have insight on the DC lobbying angle by Chinese foreign nationals and the hidden story of how the Trump administration might be confronting that aspect.
Gordon Chang briefly touches on that note during a discussion segment on the overall outcome of President Trump’s 12-day visit to Asia.
Apparently, if Chang’s sources are accurate (likely they are), the notification by POTUS Trump toward Chairman Xi Jinping, of the lobbyist warning did take place [Video 02:25].

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The foreign influence lobbying is a critical element for us domestically in the larger geopolitical strategy.  Chinese nationals pay our congressional representatives millions of dollars to purchase U.S. foreign policy.  CTH is cautiously optimistic this is a key element of Robert Mueller.
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$64 billion of the current annual trade deficit with Mexico stems from the auto sector alone.
For over a decade auto manufacturers have moved to Mexico in order to import parts from Asia, assemble and install them, and then ship the completed cars into the U.S. through NAFTA without duties (tariffs).
The U.S. auto ancillary business groups (parts suppliers) have been pushed out of competition in the auto sector by this corporate profit strategy.  Thousands of U.S. jobs have been lost in both the plant assembly and the ‘auto-parts’ manufacturing sector.
CTH has called attention to this bastardized supply chain for years.  Foreign auto-parts, made by foreign workers, assembled into U.S. owned manufacturing, and sold as U.S. automobiles. The weird supply chain and assembly process is essentially a multinational corporate scheme (in the auto sector) which exploits one of the loopholes in the 25-year-old NAFTA agreement.
If the assembly plant was on U.S. soil the foreign (mostly Asian) parts would be taxed as imported parts.  However, so long as the assembly is in Mexico (or Canada), the origin of the parts is currently irrelevant, and the finished automobile crosses the border into the U.S. avoiding the taxes using NAFTA.
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There is a notable intent to talk down the economy amid almost all financial news providers.  However, despite their negative tone the economic reality continues to surpass their Eeyore disposition.
October’s U.S. housing starts jumped +13.7% to 1.29 million units and now begins to catch up with the underlying economic data.
You’ll note CTH discussed how housing would be regionally specific as the larger Main Street MAGAnomic policies were implemented.
Capital expenditures by home builders and home purchasers are the biggest financial decisions for most American workers.
Due to the deliberate factors involved, home purchasing is the largest railroad car in the economic train; it is also positioned in the rear of the economic sequencing.  However, when home building takes off the entire economic train gains momentum.

(Via Reuters) […] The sharp rebound in home construction reported by the Commerce Department on Friday was also driven by robust gains in the Northeast and Midwest regions.
The broad recovery could ease concerns about the housing market, which has been a drag on economic growth since the second quarter. The report added to labor market, manufacturing and retail sales data that have pointed to strong economic momentum as the year winds down.

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No-where is Trump Derangement Syndrome more evident than in the position of activist Democrats now swearing allegiance to multinational trade deals.
It was only a short time ago when Democrat activists and liberal politicians demanded U.S. withdrawal from TPP and openly discussed how NAFTA was disastrous for the U.S. worker. Both Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton ran on pulling out of TPP etc.
Trump gets elected, actually fulfills a campaign promise and promptly pulls-out of TPP subsequently beginning to renegotiate NAFTA (with leveraged threats to withdraw); and suddenly, Democrats are joining arm-in-arm with corporate Republicans expressing their profound love for multinational trade deals. Go figure.

Round #5 of NAFTA renegotiation begins today in Mexico, absent any diplomatic trade ministers, and Canada announces their intent to use their access to congress as leverage over the executive branch in an attempt to work around President Trump:

OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canada will redouble its lobbying efforts in Congress to block any Trump administration move to pull the United States out of NAFTA, sources familiar with government strategy said, as talks to modernize the treaty run into trouble.
[…] Canadian officials say there is some considerable doubt as to whether Trump could pull out of NAFTA without approval from Congress, which makes lobbying its members so important.

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CTH has a strong sense that when the final analysis on Venezuela’s ongoing socialist struggle is written, some years from now, the geopolitical strategy used by the Trump administration will be taught in political science classes. [Backstory Here]
As a result of horrific socialist policies, primarily driven by using oil production to maintain it’s socialist governance, Venezuela is under massive debt and desperate for cash.  The United States was one of the few remaining cash purchasers of Venezuela oil before U.S. Secretary of Treasury  Mnuchin imposed sanctions.
Previously China and Russia purchased Maduro’s oil, however their current purchases are/were all made as offsets, repayments, for prior loans.  China and Russia already own 49% of Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA. Venezuela repays China and Russia with oil, but Venezuela needs cash revenue. It doesn’t generate additional revenue for Maduro if China and Russia purchase more oil, it only pays down the Venezuelan debt.
Venezuela needs money.  However, if anyone engages in restructured debt or further loans or bond holdings to Maduro they run the risk of running afoul of Secretary Mnuchin’s sanctions which could have a downstream effect of freezing their own banks and international financial systems from engagement with U.S. banks.
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The headline says -2.6%, but that’s the median.  The actual 2019 economic predictive modeling for Mexico is up to a 4% contraction if the U.S. cancels NAFTA.  The next round of NAFTA negotiations is scheduled for November 17th.

Additionally, these models are based on current trade economics and do not factor in the ramifications of Mexico joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership; and signing up to manufacturing sector agreements with Asian nations who can easily undercut even the low wage rates in Mexico based on average wealth.
The predictive models are run by various analysts paid by multinational business interests (corporations) to give advanced forecasting.  The results of the forecasts are used by multinational financial systems to determine the inherent value of future investment within Mexico.
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