In a series of messages from his Truth Social account, President Trump notes IRGC officials continue to fire weapons into the Strait of Hormuz in an effort to disrupt commercial shipping lanes.

The leadership of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps are in a zero-sum status.  Any change to the power structure of the country will likely mean the end to their power, life and status.  The IRGC will not accept any terms and consistently portray themselves as martyrs for the regime.

The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and shipping is creating a serious economic problem for the regime in Tehran, and the IRGC is trying to stop the situation of commercial vessel transit for anyone except Iran.  (VIA Politico) – “Iran’s Supreme National Security Council issued a statement calling the blockade a violation of the ceasefire and said Iran would prevent “any conditional and limited reopening” of the strait.”

PRESIDENT TRUMP – “Iran decided to fire bullets yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz — A Total Violation of our Ceasefire Agreement! Many of them were aimed at a French Ship, and a Freighter from the United Kingdom. That wasn’t nice, was it? My Representatives are going to Islamabad, Pakistan — They will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations. Iran recently announced that they were closing the Strait, which is strange, because our BLOCKADE has already closed it. They’re helping us without knowing, and they are the ones that lose with the closed passage, $500 Million Dollars a day! The United States loses nothing. In fact, many Ships are headed, right now, to the U.S., Texas, Louisiana, and Alaska, to load up, compliments of the IRGC, always wanting to be “the tough guy!” We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY! They’ll come down fast, they’ll come down easy and, if they don’t take the DEAL, it will be my Honor to do what has to be done, which should have been done to Iran, by other Presidents, for the last 47 years. IT’S TIME FOR THE IRAN KILLING MACHINE TO END!” ~ President DONALD J. TRUMP

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Vice President JD Vance appeared on Fox News for a discussion of what structural differences exist between the position of Iran and the position of the U.S. and allied nations surrounding Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

JD Vance notes the key point of conflict surrounds Iran’s desire to retain the ability to construct a nuclear weapon and the refusal to give up custody of currently refined nuclear fuel.  Vance also noted the negotiators in the Iran delegation did not appear to have the ability to make a deal without going back to talk to other Iranian officials.

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Many people have requested that I outline some context on the Iran conflict; so, here it is.

What follows is my own researched perspective on the challenge that President Trump is facing.  I anticipate the non-interventionists will not be happy with it, and also the Israel First crowd will not like the brutal pragmatism of it. Alas, having spent a great deal of time watching things unfold, here’s my take.

Start with this question: Considering all the years the debate over Iran’s nuclear ambitions has persisted, why haven’t its strongest allies, China and Russia, ever provided Iran with a nuclear weapon?

Now, before anyone jumps into the nuclear non-proliferation perspective, let me remind you we are not going to pretend things here. You can pretend that Beijing didn’t give the DPRK nuclear weapons by pretending that North Korea isn’t a proxy province of China. Or you can stop pretending. The choice is yours!

So, what’s different?  Well, in the DPRK example, Beijing holds the control mechanism.  For Iran, giving religious fanatics a nuclear weapon would be tantamount to giving the Muslim Brotherhood the ability to start World War III.

As recently noted, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman urged President Trump not to back down from this moment of consequence and to eliminate the Iranian threat once and for all. MbS is about as close to a Middle East pragmatist as you can find.  In response, a desperate British Prime Minister Keir Starmer rushed to Saudi Arabia hoping to change the position of MbS.  Great Britain is almost out of fuel.

That’s a good place to start looking at the regional perspectives.

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I am going to outline a contextual background for the Iranian conflict and my opinion of the current situation in detail. In short, I stand with President Trump’s position, but many of the influential aspects are being missed.

The anti-interventionist podcasters and the Israel-first advocates are both wrong. An honest and pragmatic review of the entire regional dynamic is needed.  Which includes the big picture question that no one is asking.

In the interim, here is the statement from President Trump describing the current status, against the backdrop of Vice President JD Vance’s earnest efforts to negotiate a resolution:

[VIA TRUTH SOCIAL] – “Iran promised to open the Strait of Hormuz, and they knowingly failed to do so. This caused anxiety, dislocation, and pain to many people and Countries throughout the World.

They say they put mines in the water, even though all of their Navy, and most of their “mine droppers,” have been completely blown up. They may have done so, but what ship owner would want to take the chance?

There is great dishonor and permanent harm to the reputation of Iran, and what’s left of their “Leaders,” but we are beyond all of that. As they promised, they better begin the process of getting this INTERNATIONAL WATERWAY OPEN AND FAST! Every Law in the book is being violated by them.

I have been fully debriefed by Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, on the meeting that took place in Islamabad through the kind and very competent leadership of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan. They are very extraordinary men, and continuously thank me for saving 30 to 50 million lives in what would have been a horrendous War with India. I always appreciate hearing that — The amount of Humanity spoken of is incomprehensible.

The meeting with Iran began early in the morning and lasted throughout the night — Close to 20 hours. I could go into great detail, and talk about much that has been gotten but, there is only one thing that matters — IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS!

In many ways, the points that were agreed to are better than us continuing our Military Operations to conclusion, but all of those points don’t matter compared to allowing Nuclear Power to be in the hands of such volatile, difficult, unpredictable people.

My three Representatives, as all of this time went by, became, not surprisingly, very friendly and respectful of Iran’s Representatives, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Abbas Araghchi, and Ali Bagheri, but that doesn’t matter because they were very unyielding as to the single most important issue and, as I have always said, right from the beginning, and many years ago, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!

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Former Commander of CENTCOM, General Frank McKenzie, appears on CBS to give his analysis of ongoing Operation Epic Fury, along with the successful rescue of the F-15 crew. WATCH:

[Transcript] – ED O’KEEFE: We’re joined now by the former head of U.S. Central Command, retired General Frank McKenzie. General, Happy Easter.

GEN. FRANK MCKENZIE: And the same to you, Ed.

ED O’KEEFE: So it took just under 48 hours to find the missing weapons systems officer. After the jet they were in went down in a remote and mountainous area of southwestern Iran, the weapons officer was hiding in a mountainous crevice. We’re told by a senior administration official, what’s your assessment of how the search and rescue operation went?

GEN. MCKENZIE: So I think I’d draw two lessons from it, Ed. First of all, the excellence of the joint force, our ability to rapidly pivot, to look for a downed air crewman. We train for this endlessly. It’s a part of every time we send air crew over enemy territory, we have detailed, elaborate plans to go get them. It’s a very basic part of who we are as American fighting men and women. So that plan swung into action. I think it was executed pretty effectively. As always, you’ve got somebody on the ground, may be injured. They got to get to a position where they can hide until you can get to them. All that seemed to work out very well. And you know, we did, in fact, lose a couple of aircraft in that in that mission. But I would just tell you, it takes a year to build an aircraft. It takes 200 years to build a military tradition where you don’t leave anybody behind. You take the aircraft trade any day in a situation like this. The other lesson, I think, is a hard lesson for Iran. First of all, they were not able to find the missing air crewman. Second, you know, they put out a broad appeal to their people to turn him in reward, asking for all kinds of leads, that does not appear to have been successful. And that would- I think that’s maybe a sign of disaffection, don’t know, but you can’t, you can’t be happy with that if you’re a senior leader in Tehran this morning.

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered the termination of lawful permanent resident status for Hamideh Soleimani Afshar, identified as Qasem Soleimani’s niece, and her daughter. Both were subsequently detained and are now in the custody of US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

Marco Rubio – “Last night, the niece and grand niece of deceased Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Major General Qasem Soleimani were arrested by federal agents following Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s termination of their lawful permanent resident (LPR) status.

Hamideh Soleimani Afshar and her daughter are now in the custody of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. As identified by both press reporting and her own social media commentary, Soleimani Afshar is an outspoken supporter of the totalitarian, terrorist regime in Iran.

While living in the United States, she promoted Iranian regime propaganda, celebrated attacks against American soldiers and military facilities in the Middle East, praised the new Iranian Supreme Leader, denounced America as the “Great Satan,” and voiced her unflinching support for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, a designated terror organization.

Afshar Soleimani pushed this propaganda for Iran’s terrorist regime while enjoying a lavish lifestyle in Los Angeles, as attested to by her frequent posting on her recently deleted Instagram account.

In addition to the termination of Hamideh Soleimani Afshar and her daughter’s LPR status, Afshar’s husband has also been barred from entering the United States.

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Al Jazeera is essentially the state run media outlet of Qatar.  Secretary of State Rubio sat down for a lengthy interview with Al Jazeera that will be shared throughout the Arab world.

“In an exclusive Al Jazeera interview, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that President Trump always prefers diplomacy, with messages and indirect talks ongoing between the US and figures inside Iran. Rubio demanded that Iran abandon all nuclear weapons ambitions, end its missile and drone programmes, and stop sponsoring terrorism across the region. He rejected Iran’s conditions for ending the war — including sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and financial compensation — calling the strait demand illegal and a dangerous global precedent. Rubio declared that the strait “will be open one way or another” after US military objectives are achieved, whether through Iranian compliance or an international coalition.”

“He outlined those objectives as the destruction of Iran’s air force (achieved), navy (largely achieved), missile launchers, and weapons factories — all to be completed in weeks, not months. Rubio expressed disappointment with NATO allies like Spain for denying basing rights and airspace, warning that the US would re-examine its NATO commitment. He confirmed the US would welcome regime change in Iran but insisted it was not the official objective of the current military operation. The interview also covered post-Maduro stabilisation in Venezuela and called for serious economic and political reforms in Cuba.” 

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As Secretary of State Marco Rubio appears for an interview on Good Morning America, President Trump released the following statement:

“The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran. Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately “Open for Business,” we will conclude our lovely “stay” in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet “touched.” This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime’s 47 year “Reign of Terror.” Thank you for your attention to this matter.” ~ President DONALD J. TRUMP

Secretary Rubio responded in real time to questions about the objectives.  Rubio impressively underlined the objectives in Iran, reemphasizing the core intent of the military operation to remove the capacity of Iran to pose a threat to the stable alliances that have formed in the region.  WATCH:

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As the ongoing Operation Epic Fury military engagement continues, CENTCOM announces the arrival of 3.500 Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit into forward position.

[SOURCE]

As negotiations with Iranian leadership are reported to be ongoing, it would appear that options are now present for President Trump to make a decision on the potential seizure of Kharg Island, a crucial oil export hub off Iran’s coast.

(Via Wall Street Journal) – The Pentagon is looking at sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East to give President Trump more military options even as he weighs peace talks with Tehran, Department of Defense officials with knowledge of the planning said.

The force, which would likely include infantry and armored vehicles, would be added to the roughly 5,000 Marines and the thousands of paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division who have already been ordered to the region.

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Obviously, one of the challenges faced by President Trump following the elimination of all senior Iran political leadership, is to know who is left in power that has the ability to negotiate terms between Iran and the U.S.

During the Q&A media segment of Mark Wayne Mullin’s swearing in ceremony, President Trump was asked how he can trust the Iranian leadership he is currently communicating with.  President Trump responded that he doesn’t trust anyone; however, the voices in Iran currently negotiating with the U.S. team sent something of great value to the White House to verify their Bonafide’s.  It is an interesting segment.  WATCH (prompted):

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