The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published a jobs report yesterday [DATA LINK] that has stunned the professional financial class.   However, those who have followed the BLS data assemblies were laughing – not surprised.  Eventually, if this continues, the BLS pretzel logic will start using terms like “eleventy.”

Throughout 2022, the BLS modified the underlying data they used to assemble their jobs reporting.  The latest release shows that 517,000 jobs were gained in the labor market, despite every other economic indicator showing we are in an economy of contraction.  The question becomes, why the disconnect?

There are two surveys that make up the BLS reporting.  The Household survey is conducted by calling people and just asking if they are employed.  The Payroll survey is conducted by reviewing large and medium businesses, no small businesses are included, and that plays a role in the disconnect.

Since the spring of last year, the two surveys have completely disconnected from each other.   The household survey finds a net gain of 12,000 jobs in the last three quarters; the Payroll survey shows gains of 2.7 million jobs during the same time.

ZeroHedge did a good dive on the issue (SEE HERE), and their analysis reports, “[…] the number of full-time workers in March 2022 was 132.587 million. Fast forward to January 2023 when it was 132.577: that’s right: total US full-time workers declined by 10K over a period of 10 months. Meanwhile, part-time workers soared from 25.908 million to 27.400 million, an increase of 1.492 million! So at least we know where the bulk of the increase in US labor came from in the past year: virtually no full-time jobs, and all part-time.”

Additionally, Forbes dove into the data (SEE HERE) and reached a similar conclusion, the BLS data is all nonsense covered in statistical noise.

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This is a topic we have covered extensively, and it is great to see Tucker Carlson questioning the sudden alignment of various elements that are creating a very real food insecurity problem.

The #1 factor in the shortage of food production is the newly emboldened ‘western energy policy‘ and the impact energy has on everything from field (fertilizer) to fork (distribution).  Other factors include government policy that blocks food development (Dutch, Irish and Sri Lanka Farmers), a sudden uptick in food facilities having major fires and damage, and a series of issues with the feed that goes into the production of proteins.

This is all happening as the advancement of insects as a more “sustainable” protein replacement is being advanced by the same western governments.  However, if you happen to notice that all of the issues travel in the same direction, you are a conspiracy theorist, or something.  WATCH:

We have been watching the predictable outcomes surrounding the western government shift to change energy policy for almost two years.  Approximately a year ago we first said, “the absence of food will change things.”

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U.K. pundit Neil Oliver used his weekend monologue to outline the great pretending being deliberately pushed by the groups of western leaders who attend meetings at the World Economic Forum.

The pretending outlined in the context used by Oliver is the classic ‘bait and switch.’  The people are baited into believing the purpose of policy or advocacy is one thing, but the true goal is something completely different.  What Oliver encapsulates as the ‘bait and switch’ is the underline for the modern ‘pretending’, where government officials pretend the end goal is something completely different than it is.

Oliver walks through examples of the ‘bait and switch’ as it is currently being deployed, and using those examples he culminates the discussion with the reality hidden behind the digital identity.  Once everyone can be assigned a digital id, then government can transfer income to a digital currency; then that same government can start introducing the restrictions on what may be purchased in order to ‘save the planet’, which is to say the real goal of total control surfaces.  WATCH:

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President Trump transmitted a message to congress, warning them not to cut Social Security and Medicare {Direct Rumble Link}.  Many politicians and pundits will look at Trump’s position from the perspective of it being good to campaign for older voters, but that’s not the core of his reasoning.

In 2016 CTH was the first place to evaluate the totality of President Trump’s economic policies; specifically, as those policies related to the entitlement programs around Social Security and Medicare.  We outlined the approach Trump was putting forth and the way he was approaching the issue.   In the years that followed, he was right.  He was creating a U.S. economy that could sustain all of the elements the traditional political class were calling “unsustainable.”

Before getting to the details, here’s his video message and policy as delivered yesterday. WATCH:

Fortunately, we do not have to guess if President Trump is correct. We have his actual economic policy results to look at and see how the expansion of the economy was creating the type of growth that would sustain Social Security and Medicare.  This was/is MAGAnomics at work.

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President Trump transmitted a message to congress, warning them not to cut Social Security and Medicare {Direct Rumble Link}.  Many politicians and pundits will look at Trump’s position from the perspective of it being good to campaign for older voters, but that’s not the core of his reasoning.

In 2016 CTH was the first place to evaluate the totality of President Trump’s economic policies; specifically, as those policies related to the entitlement programs around Social Security and Medicare.  We outlined the approach Trump was putting forth and the way he was approaching the issue.   In the years that followed, he was right.  He was creating a U.S. economy that could sustain all of the elements the traditional political class were calling “unsustainable.”

Before getting to the details, here’s his video message and policy as delivered yesterday. WATCH:

Fortunately, we do not have to guess if President Trump is correct. We have his actual economic policy results to look at and see how the expansion of the economy was creating the type of growth that would sustain Social Security and Medicare.  This was/is MAGAnomics at work.

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New Zealand Prime Minister Jacina Ardern was only exceeded in the leftist hierarchy by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel.   Ardern is to the Australian continent what Barack Obama was to North America and Angela Merkel was to Europe.  Stunningly, Jacinda Ardern has announced she will not seek reelection and is resigning from her position.  Ironically on the timing, her political career was an outcome of Davos recruitment.

Ardern’s extreme COVID-19 dictates and fiats to include isolation, quarantine camps, severe regimented social lockdowns, forced and mandatory vaccinations and subsequent passports etc, made her the visible face of government COVID-19 extremes.  Keeping with her apt description as a smiley-faced fascist, she did not care about the backlash from her totalitarian dictates and fiats.  The government owned the media, and the concerns of Kiwi’s about the government extremes were dispatched without regard.

Struggling to come to grips with the looming defeat she would likely face; an emotional Jacinda Ardern made her resignation announcement to the media.  She exits on February 7th. WATCH:

(Via Daily Mail) – Jacinda Ardern has choked back tears as she announced her resignation as New Zealand Prime Minister in an emotional press conference.

Her resignation comes into effect on Sunday if the Labour Party can elect her replacement, or on February 7 if the process was drawn out. ‘I am human. Politicians are human. We give all we can for as long as we can – and then it’s time. And for me, it’s time,’ she said. ‘I know what this job takes. And I know that I no longer have enough in the tank to do it justice.’

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There is something predictable about Main Street economics, eventually what you see around you overwhelms the great pretending.  CTH has been outlining the state of the consumer economy in great detail for quite a while, and though it is difficult to note when the outcomes will surface, eventually they do surface. [Reminder Here]

CONTEXT. CTH outlined the moment when the purchasing power of the U.S. middle class actually began contracting.  It was March and April of 2021 when that Rubicon was crossed.  We saw it in the second and third quarter data from 2021, but few were willing to admit.

What changed in those two months back in ’21 was a dramatic drop in the “unit sales” of stuff within the consumer economy.  The drop in unit sales was hidden because it happened simultaneously with the first wave of massive spike in prices.  Prices rose so fast the sales data was giving an artificial impression of sales growth, but in the background the actual unit sales dropped.   Those analysts correcting and adjusting historic data to ‘inflation adjusted terms’ are now noticing.

Additionally, and not coincidentally – because the metrics are connected, you will note this line from the Wall Street Journal review of the producer price index. “The producer-price index, which generally reflects supply conditions in the economy, rose 6.2% in December from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Wednesday, the slowest annual pace since March 2021.”  In essence, the current rate of wholesale price increase on materials is now returning to the rate of price increase that happened in the period when prices spiked.  Again, this is predictable.

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The European Union is hopping mad that Joe Biden was able to pass the “Green New Deal” (aka Inflation Reduction Act) and generate hundreds of billions in government subsidies for climate friendly initiatives.   Essentially, this is an economic war over who can do socialism better.

Fearing the EU may lose their green position, the European Union is now promising to fight back by spending even more, bigger, sums of taxpayer funds to subsidize their green ‘climate change’ energy economy.

If Biden plans to transfer hundreds of billions to corporations as structural enhancements for permanent energy changes, the EU will meet or beat that subsidy scheme. So sayeth, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

(Via Reuters) – The European Union responded on Tuesday to U.S. moves to boost its energy transition with its own plans to make life easier for green industry, saying it would mobilize state aid and a sovereignty fund to keep firms from moving to the United States.

European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen told the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos that the moves would be part of the EU’s Green Deal industrial plan to make Europe a centre for clean technology and innovation.

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There has always been a general shaping and interpretation surrounding economic news, specifically as it relates to the impact of pricing on consumers and corporations. However, against the backdrop of supply side inflation, the financial gaslighting from the Wall Street Journal stands out at the top.

Without pretending, and looking directly at the Main Street reality, CTH has outlined inflation as a matter of monetary and energy policy.  From that standpoint the timing and scale of price increases (inflation measured over time) was predictable.  Our current status is an inflationary plateau, where prices remain high but stabilize for likely two quarters.

What the Wall Street Journal outlines as a “shopper rebellion against high prices” is complete hogwash.  Notice in the construct of the narrative, the demand side (consumers) is identified as the cause of diminished revenue & profits for corporations.  They continue pretending that inflation was not driven by energy costs.

(WSJ) – […] Many companies raised their prices substantially last year to offset higher fuel costs and higher prices for ingredients, parts and labor. As fuel prices have dropped and pandemic supply-chain snarls have eased, some of those costs have come down.

That is a good sign for the economy. It suggests that some inflation in the past year resulted from extreme supply-demand imbalances brought on by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine and which are now fading.

Notice the transparent lack of mentioning ‘energy policy’ as the inflation driver.

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You know things are squirrely when you find yourself listening to a rather unorthodox presentation of political events and agreeing with Russell Brand.

Someone shared this with me asking for my opinion.  The presentation is a little over-the-top, but the message conveyed is ultimately accurate; remarkably so.  WATCH:

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