As we noted on Day #1, if we watch how Beijing scripts the messaging we should be able to identify if Chairman Xi Jinping is taking the dragon approach toward his captive Kim Jong Un, or if Xi would instead reshape the geopolitics by announcing his release of Kim as a hostage: The magnanimous panda approach.  [Critical Background HERE and HERE]
It looks like we have an answer today as Chairman Xi writes a personal op-ed, published on the front page of North Korea’s state newspaper, where Xi is releasing Kim from proxy province captivity:

…”China supports North Korea’s “correct direction” in politically resolving issues on the Korean Peninsula.”…

Yes, though important details are yet to follow, it appears Beijing is acquiescing to the unrelenting pressure from hostage rescuer President Donald Trump and allowing the DPRK to exit the controlled captivity of China. Likely denuclearization will commence.

SEOUL (Reuters) – Chinese President Xi Jinping said in an op-ed in North Korean state newspaper Rodong Sinmun on Wednesday that China supports North Korea’s “correct direction” in politically resolving issues on the Korean Peninsula.
The front-page op-ed is an honor rarely granted to foreign leaders and comes a day before Xi is set to visit Pyongyang on Thursday and Friday at the invitation of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, making him the first Chinese leader to visit in 14 years.

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President Trump tweeted about a phone call this morning with Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping. There will be a G20 meeting between Trump and Xi. So, extending our conversation from yesterday…. the “magnanimous panda” approach appears confirmed.

[White House] President Donald J. Trump spoke with President Xi Jinping of China this morning. The two leaders discussed the importance of leveling the playing field for U.S. farmers, workers, and businesses through a fair and reciprocal economic relationship. This includes addressing structural barriers to trade with China and achieving meaningful reforms that are enforceable and verifiable. The leaders also discussed regional security issues. The two Presidents look forward to meeting again in Osaka, Japan at the G20 Summit. (read more)

With Chairman Xi Jinping traveling to North Korea for talks with his captive Kim Jong Un prior to the G20; and with the meeting between Xi and Trump confirmed; it certainly looks like Beijing is deflecting the weakness of their economic/trade position by shifting the optic toward a geopolitical magnanimous panda.  The scale of the uprising in Hong Kong was also a likely influence on the margins.
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Author of ‘The Coming Collapse of China’, Gordon Chang, appears on Fox Business to discuss the mounting U.S. trade tensions with China, the fallout from the protests against Carrie Lam in Hong Kong, and the announced visit by Xi to North Korea.
Chang also sees the visit by China’s Chairman Xi Jinping to North Korea as a strategic and purposeful moment for Beijing; an attempt to find footing against the overwhelming economic punishment being delivered by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Well, well, well….  Against the backdrop of everything we have been discussing about the nature of the U.S. – China – North Korea geopolitics; and considering the current position of all the players; THIS is a very interesting development:

BEIJING (Reuters) – Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit North Korea for two days from Thursday, state media in both countries reported on Monday, making him the first Chinese leader to visit in 14 years.
Neighboring China is reclusive North Korea’s only major ally, and the visit comes amid renewed tensions between the United States and North Korea over efforts to persuade Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons.

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Bloomberg has an interesting article citing an internal discussion within Chinese technology company Huawei as they estimate the financial impact to the U.S. blacklist position.

Do the math… Huawei estimates an international drop of between 40 million to 60 million units at an average retail cost of $500 per unit. That is a stunning financial forecast for a drop in sales.

(Via Bloomberg) Huawei Technologies Co. is preparing for a 40% to 60% drop in international smartphone shipments as the Trump administration’s blacklisting hammers one of the Chinese tech giant’s most important businesses.
China’s largest technology company is crunching internal estimates and exploring options including pulling the latest model of its marquee overseas label, the Honor 20, people familiar with the matter say.
The device begins selling in parts of Europe June 21 including France and the U.K., but executives are monitoring the launch and may cut off shipments if it sells poorly as expected, they said, asking not to be identified discussing internal matters. Already, two of France’s largest carriers aren’t bothering with the Honor at all, two people familiar with the matter said.

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~ Dance With The Dragon ~

Amid the furor from hundreds-of-thousands -perhaps millions- of protestors, Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam announces a ‘suspension‘ of the proposed extradition law that would have permitted extradition of Hong Kong residents to Chinese law enforcement.

Lam apologized on Sunday, for the way the Hong Kong government handled the proposal but she did not fully take the controversial law off the table.  The ripple effect of the proposal itself now calls into question the autonomy of Hong Kong, and many observers foresee it is now only a matter of time before China takes a tighter grip.
Currently Hong Kong is not subject to the same economic consequences within the U.S-China confrontation.  As long as Hong Kong is considered ‘autonomous’ they remain detached from U.S. tariffs and other measures targeted to China.  However, if China breeches the increasingly unclear barriers, judicial and legal systems intended to provide that autonomy – well, then the situation could change.  Hong Kong is tenuous at best.
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More indications of the growing financial exit to avoid the predictable response from totalitarian moves by Beijing.  [Backstory – Backstory] Now we see reports growing of mass financial moves out of Hong Kong, as billionaires see the looming shadow of Red Dragon closing in…

HONG KONG (Reuters) – Some Hong Kong tycoons have started moving personal wealth offshore as concern deepens over a local government plan to allow extraditions of suspects to face trial in China for the first time, according to financial advisers, bankers and lawyers familiar with such transactions.
One tycoon, who considers himself potentially politically exposed, has started shifting more than $100 million from a local Citibank account to a Citibank account in Singapore, according to an adviser involved in the transactions.
“It’s started. We’re hearing others are doing it, too, but no-one is going to go on parade that they are leaving,” the adviser said. “The fear is that the bar is coming right down on Beijing’s ability to get your assets in Hong Kong. Singapore is the favoured destination.”

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It’s important to remember President Obama’s ideological ally, former DOJ Civil Rights Division head Tom Perez, is the current Chairman of the DNC.  There are still two generally adverse camps within the DNC Club, though the boundary is much softer.
The professionals (former Clinton wing) and the activists (former Obama wing).  Tom Perez hails from the ideological activist wing.  The Democrat debate will take place in Miami and the group has been broken up into two groups over two nights.

Despite the nonsense that might be spun by NBC, the selection was not random draw (they never are) by the club. The DNC selected the candidates for each night and coordinated with NBC.  Interestingly, Elizabeth Warren is the biggest winner and Bernie Sanders is the biggest loser.  That’s a *tell*.  The DNC is shaping the perspectives of the college crowd.
By positioning Elizabeth Warren on the first night (highest rating night); and positioning her with little intellectual or policy challenge; it appears the Perez DNC activist wing wants Warren over Sanders. It’s also obvious Warren can critique Sanders without an rebuttal (smart move).  Additionally Beto will look like the goofball he is.  This helps assemble the college crowd to Warren (again, subtle but smart move).
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Against the intense leverage being applied by President Trump, last week Beijing doubled-down and threatened punishment against any company that would leave China and begin manufacturing elsewhere.
The totalitarian response was predictable and expected.  However, also predictable was the corporate response to the threats.
As we shared:  “China is counting on prior western investment being so significant that a corporation will be reluctant to withdraw. However, in this outlook Beijing seriously underestimates the free market because communist controlled China doesn’t understand the action of a inherently free market.
The first loss is the best loss. If walking away from an investment provides more financial security and stability than attempting to retain a grip on a tenuous position – corporations will walk away.” (more)
Now today – “Nintendo Moves Some Switch Production Out of China”:

TOKYO— Nintendo Co. is shifting some production of its Switch videogame console to Southeast Asia from China to limit the impact of possible U.S. tariffs on Chinese-made electronics, said people who work on Nintendo’s supply chain.
It is another example of manufacturers adapting to the tariff threat. Taiwan’s Foxconn Technology Group said Tuesday that it was ready to move assembly of Apple Inc.’s iPhones out of China if necessary, and Japan’s Sharp Corp. , which is controlled by Foxconn, said last week that it planned to move production of personal computers to Taiwan or Vietnam.

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On Tuesday afternoon President Trump was asked a question by media about Kim Jong Un.  President Trump responded to the question, and simultaneously delivered an openly coded message to Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping that few would understand:

[Transcript] Q (Inaudible) about your meeting with Kim Jong Un while you’re in South Korea? Are there discussions underway?
THE PRESIDENT: So, I see that. And I just received a beautiful letter from Kim Jong Un, and I think the relationship is very well. But I appreciated the letter. I saw the information about the CIA, with respect to his brother, or half-brother. And I would tell him that would not happen under my auspices, that’s for sure. I wouldn’t let that happen under my auspices.
But I just received a beautiful letter from Kim Jong Un. I can’t show you the letter, obviously, but it was a very personal, very warm, very nice letter. I appreciate it.

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