President Donald Trump holds an impromptu presser aboard Air Force One en route back to Washington DC.  Most of the conversation centers around the upcoming “Liberty Day” tariffs, and the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

According to National Economic Council Chairman Kevin Hassett, our President now has all the assembled data from the full review and analysis of the combined research of the MAGAnomic agencies within the White House.  The analysis combines both tariff and non-tariff trade barriers to determine exactly what costs are put upon the U.S. export companies for goods that arrive in various countries.

All of those combined costs, by country, will determine the reciprocal amount of the tariff levied by President Trump.  The announcement of tariff rates will likely come this week, with President Trump previously saying April 2nd and April 3rd being the beginning of the implementation dates.

President Trump also puts context on the headline quotes promoted by NBC news and Kirsten Welker about his consideration toward Vladimir Putin. A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT CONTEXT!  President Trump simply noted that while President Putin doesn’t like Zelenskyy, and factually calls him illegitimate, Trump needs Putin to accept Zelenskyy in order to have the other chair at the peace table filled. That’s it. Pragmatic toward peace! WATCH:

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President Trump notes that after his warning of secondary tariffs against any nation who imports oil from Venezuela, Chinese ships pulled up anchor and left Venezuelan ports empty.  Additionally, regarding Zelenskyy, President Trump notes the Ukraine President is going to face “a lot of trouble” if he backs out of the previously agreed minerals deal.

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Today, President Donald J Trump signed an executive order triggering the first ever system of “reciprocal trade tariffs,” a seismic change in U.S. trade policy that will also consider the respective nation’s VAT (Value Added Tax) tariff.

Within the executive order [as outlined], the Secretary of Commerce and the United States Trade Representative will consider foreign industry subsidies, and non-monetary tariff barriers as part of the determination of the tariff levied.  This is a stunning shift in U.S trade agreements that will cut through all the angles being deployed to avoid U.S. tariffs and block U.S exports into their country.

The policy will pressure foreign nations to lower their trade barriers to U.S. goods and eliminate disparity in foreign trade agreements.  One big example will be the impact on the EU through the continuing Marshall Plan.  The EU will now face reciprocal tariffs and no longer benefit from one-way tariff acceptance. There are obviously no tariffs on products made inside the USA.

With “reciprocal tariffs” the Commerce Dept and USTR will now determine the trade imbalances with each individual country and will evaluate each FTA (Free Trade Agreement), one-by-one to deconflict the trade imbalance.  Direct tariffs, subsidies, regulatory hurdles, non-monetary trade barriers and hidden export subsidies will be addressed as part of the reciprocity evaluation.  This is a completely new dynamic in the era of modern global trade and economics.

During the executive order signing event, President Trump took questions from the media. WATCH:

Between now and April 1st, each individual trade agreement will be evaluated with consideration for all facets of the cost for American companies to export to the evaluated nation.  Direct tariffs, Value Added Taxes (VAT), state subsidies and non-monetary regulatory tariff barriers, will be determined for each nation.  That nation will then be made aware of the tariff against each sector within their export system to the United States.

Effective April 2, 2025, President Trump will then have the tariff data provided by the USTR and Secretary of Commerce. President Trump will determine when the reciprocal tariff will be triggered and will likely engage in discussions with the leaders of the foreign nations.

These fireside chat-style impromptu pressers during executive order signings are awesome.  The revolutionary change in government transparency and communication is, well, quite literally historic and stunning.  The media can ask questions in real-time as the specific policy is implemented and explained, while simultaneously the ability of the media to shape an anti-Trump policy narrative is removed.

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lol… Don’t you just love it when exactly what you knew would happen, starts to happen – SEE PREDICTION HERE.

This is, quite simply, a super-blast of Trumpian fuel that will overwhelm the DC outrage machine’s capacity to keep up.  Exhausted media heads will explode as the machine’s narrative engineers struggle -against all odds- to keep the system operating…. “Stop the Hammering“.. lol

WASHINGTON DC – The United States Postal Service announced Tuesday night that it is temporarily suspending accepting packages sent from China and Hong Kong until further notice.

The suspension is effective immediately, the USPS said. Letters and flats are not included in the suspension, it said.

The postal service did not provide a reason for the suspension or say how long it expects it to last.

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Big Panda has a problem, and his name is President Donald Trump.

CTH went (proactively) directly into the heart of the Chinese Potemkin Village, much like my trip to Russia, to specifically see what the reality is on the ground in the region of all Beijing influence.  Where the East meets the West you will find a hot mess of propaganda, kept in place by widespread geopolitical pretending.

Never was that reality clearer, than in the example of the retaliatory tariffs announced in response to President Trump’s trade tariffs.

(Via AP) – China said it would implement a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas products as well as a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery and large-engine cars imported from the U.S. The tariffs would take effect next Monday. {link}

First, tariffs on energy products are pure propaganda.  Coal, LNG and crude oil are fungible. In the case of China the energy products arrive from a global market, there is no identifiable way to tariff American energy products.  This is not like Canada where the Candian energy products are entirely dependent on pipelines into the USA, and therefore unavoidably easy to tariff by Trump.

Chairman Xi gets most of the Chinese imported energy resources from Russia, specifically Coal, LNG and Crude Oil.  So, this subset of tariffs against American energy products is pure propaganda, essentially moot.

You know who buys USA-made “large-engine cars” (Chevy Tahoe, GMC Yukon and Ford Raptors) in China?  People well connected to the Chinese Communist Party, that’s who.  If you are not a member of the elite ruling class in China, you do not buy large-engine cars.   So, what exactly is the intent on this one?  The target is a domestic internal political apparatus, in combination with narrative creation that Beijing believes will create the biggest splash headlines in the West.  That’s it.  Again, pure political propaganda.

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Knowing the severe ramifications likely and taking a proactive approach toward root-cause analysis, CTH attended the ASEAN summit to gauge how Asia was likely to respond to Trump term-2 and the looming possibility of a severe nationalist approach toward a renewal of USA manufacturing. The untangling of the Beijing Belt & Road initiative was a key topic of interest noted.  [Watch Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines.]

Secretary of State Marco Rubio traveled to Panama this weekend to express the position of President Donald Trump as it pertains to Chinese influence over the maritime transit gateway known as the Panama Canal. Following the meeting with President José Raúl Mulino, the government of Panama has announced they will no longer support China’s Belt & Road initiative.

Photographic message received; or the one-time Rubio needed to be shorter, you decide.

STATE DEPT – Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino and Foreign Minister Javier Martínez-Acha today in Panama City to address critical regional and global challenges. Secretary Rubio informed President Mulino and Minister Martínez-Acha that President Trump has made a preliminary determination that the current position of influence and control of the Chinese Communist Party over the Panama Canal area is a threat to the canal and represents a violation of the Treaty Concerning the Permanent Neutrality and Operation of the Panama Canal. Secretary Rubio made clear that this status quo is unacceptable and that absent immediate changes, it would require the United States to take measures necessary to protect its rights under the Treaty.

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In December of 2016 when we discussed the possibility of President Trump’s then new and unique tariff approach, we predicted negligible impact – if any at all.  It was a theory at the time, but predicated on the looming possibility that impacted nations would inevitably devalue their currency. It was the currency devaluation, in combination with directed subsidies, that would offset any tariff impact to U.S. consumers.

By the time we got to December 2019, we were no longer discussing theory.  Deflation due to currency devaluation, subsidy and a rising dollar actually became reality.  The lookback data (2017 through 2019) proved the tariffs did not raise prices. In fact, the opposite happened, we were importing broad-based deflation.

Now it’s 2025 and again China is hit with tariffs, along with Canada and Mexico.  With history as a reference, watch the Canadian Dollar and the Mexican Peso.  Initial impact shows the same thing repeating again. The U.S. dollar is rising in value, and the Canadian dollar is dropping quickly.

If this trend holds, the 25% tariffs against Canada (and Mexico) will have minimal impact, if any at all.  The lowered value Canadian dollar and Mexican peso will work as an offset and imports will be paid with higher value dollars.  Depending on the scale of what happens in the next few weeks, there is a strong possibility Canada might have just walked into a trap set by Trump.

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President Trump has triggered punitive tariffs against Canada, Mexico and China for their role in the manufacture and delivery of fentanyl into the United States while disregarding their responsibility to secure the U.S. border.

In response, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced responsive tariffs against American goods.  However, the responsive tariffs are primarily the products that Canada has exploited through the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) loophole.

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It is obvious Canada’s response is in consultation with the U.S. democrats, as is the customary norm for the Trudeau administration.

(Politico) – Canada’s prime minister, Justin Trudeau, on Saturday night made a televised address announcing concrete measures including a tit-for-tat 25% tariff phased in across C$155bn ($107bn) worth of American products. Trudeau said Trump had put at risk US consumers’ and industries’ access to much-needed Canadian critical minerals and resources including oil, energy and timber. The prime minister promised to work with Canada’s provinces to review dealings with the United States.

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Another thing to keep in mind about this TikTok platform is that its servers are hosted by Oracle, that’s Larry Ellison, and an arrangement that keeps U.S. data in America.

After President Trump sent out a message from his Truth Social platform. TikTok thanked President Trump and reactivated the platform for U.S users.

Here’s the first message from President Donald Trump.

“I’m asking companies not to let TikTok stay dark! I will issue an executive order on Monday to extend the period of time before the law’s prohibitions take effect, so that we can make a deal to protect our national security. The order will also confirm that there will be no liability for any company that helped keep TikTok from going dark before my order.

Americans deserve to see our exciting Inauguration on Monday, as well as other events and conversations.

I would like the United States to have a 50% ownership position in a joint venture. By doing this, we save TikTok, keep it in good hands and allow it to say up. Without U.S. approval, there is no Tik Tok. With our approval, it is worth hundreds of billions of dollars – maybe trillions.

Therefore, my initial thought is a joint venture between the current owners and/or new owners whereby the U.S. gets a 50% ownership in a joint venture set up between the U.S. and whichever purchase we so choose.” {Source}

A few hours later TikTok made an announcement via the Twitter App.

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TikTok CEO Shou Chew has been in several meetings with President-Elect Donald Trump to discuss the fate of the platform. 170 million American users are engaged on the TikTok social media platform. There is some rather significant gamesmanship afoot as things come to a head.

The U.S. legislative branch created a law banning TikTok if Chinese interests retained ownership. Joe Biden signed the law, and the Supreme Court delivered a final “per curium” opinion [SEE HERE] saying the law did not violate any constitutional limitations about government control on speech.

TikTok has not negotiated a deal to sell the platform to a non-Chinese entity. In an effort to soften the political backlash from angered domestic users of the platform, Joe Biden has attempted to hand the TikTok controversy to President Trump by saying the U.S. government (DOJ, SEC, Etc.) would not enforce the fines and accountability measures within the law.

On Friday TikTok CEO Sou Chew thanked President Trump for his support. Hours later TikTok announced it would go dark on Sunday. “Unless the Biden Administration immediately provides a definitive statement to satisfy the most critical service providers assuring non-enforcement, unfortunately TikTok will be forced to go dark on January 19.”

Is TikTok actually going to shut down or is Sou Chew playing the role of ‘Sad Panda’ creating a highly public optic that presents President Trump as saving the platform.  Because we are essentially dealing with the Beijing mindset here, the latter is a strong possibility.

President-elect Trump said he will work something out.  TikTok CEO Shou Chew will be attending the inauguration on Monday.

There’s something very Art of The Deal-ish afoot!

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Aligning with the concept of using tariffs to fund government operations, President Trump has announced his intention to create the External Revenue Service.  It appears to be a collection and enforcement mechanism to gather income from tariffs, duties and other sources that will pay for access to the U.S. consumer market.

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One of the issues the External Revenue Service will likely address is the de minimis loophole.

The de minimis loophole comes from back in the 1930s. The idea back then was, say you went on a vacation to Paris, you shouldn’t have to file customs paperwork or pay taxes if you decided to ship some little Eiffel Tower statues to your friends back home.

Congress in 2015 then raised the de minimis threshold from $200 to $800.  However, the e-commerce world exploded, and Chinese companies began using the de minimis loophole to ship cheap goods (ex. Temu and Shein) into the USA direct to consumers without paying any customs duty.

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