The pageantry and scale of the royal reception toward President Trump and the U.S. is reflective of much more than a singular presidential visit to a nation and region of geo-strategic importance.

The word “reset” is frequent amid media reporting of the Saudi trip but few people have followed the recent regional history to thoroughly understand what exactly is being reset.

~ President Donald Trump and Saudi King Salman – Joint Statement.

President Trump is being recognized and respected by the regional Arab coalition for his specific approach and outward worldview which is based on eye-to-eye diplomacy.

Through the contacts, discussions, emissary meetings and individual diplomatic engagements over the past six months, the Arab region members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) -and specifically Saudi Arabia- are overjoyed to find a fresh U.S. perspective based on mutual respect. (more…)

To understand the China ‘One-Belt / ‘One-World’ economic trade forum it becomes necessary to understand how structurally weak the Chinese economy was created.

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People often talk about the ‘strength’ of China’s economic model; and indeed within a specific part of their economy -manufacturing- they do have economic strength.  However, the underlying critical architecture of the Chinese economic model is structurally flawed and President Trump with his current economic team understand the weakness better than all international adversaries.

Lets take a stroll and lightly discuss.

China is a central planning economy.  Meaning it never was an outcropping of natural economic conditions.  China was/is controlled as a communist style central-planning government; As such, it is important to reference the basic structural reality that China’s economy was created from the top down.

This construct of government creation is a key big picture distinction that sets the backdrop to understand how weak the economy really is.

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Two great interviews with Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, aka “Wilburine”. Secretary Ross is easily the most comprehensively well-versed trade policy commerce secretary in modern history, perhaps ever.

Wilburine is discussing the recent U.S./China trade breakthrough. –BACKSTORY HERE– Additionally, at 08:30 of the interview Ross discusses NAFTA against the backdrop of the Senate not yet accepting his “letter of intent” to renegotiate the agreement.  Secretary Ross discusses how Robert Lighthizer’s confirmation should help speed up the senate process.

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In substantive terms the bigger aspect to remember is how much more leverage there is in bilateral trade negotiations than multilateral agreements.

The Trans-Pacific-Partnership (TPP) would have held the U.S. hostage to agreements that in many cases were against our interests and to the benefit of the larger group of TPP nations. Former Secretary of State John Kerry stated openly: while China was not part of the original TPP framework, the participating nations held open a back door for China to enjoin.

Because President Trump pulled away from TPP, the U.S. is able to negotiate terms for trade with our market that may have specific and purposeful benefit exclusive to the United States. This is critical as we review current negotiated bilateral deal with China.

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On the heels of the historic meeting between China’s President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump in Mar-a-lago, Secretary Ross announced a jaw-dropping schedule for bilateral trade negotiations between the U.S. and China.

Part of that rapid schedule included a plan for a 100-day waypoint outline toward the larger trade issues surrounding the United States and China. Against the pace of historic trade agreements the 100-day schedule was almost unfathomable; yet today Secretary Ross announces the initial waypoints have been successful.

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The Department of Commerce provides the outline of the first-stage, the initial agreement, which includes China opening their market up to U.S. agricultural products including U.S. beef export as well as liquid natural gas, and further agreements on financial services. These are multi-billion market deals.

Here’s the Commerce Dept press release. I’ll try to break it down into understandable lingo at the bottom using the included reference points from the press release:

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All positions have some bearing on the average American; however, some confirmation votes are more directly tied to the well-being of ordinary people than others.  This confirmation will directly and specifically make the lives of middle-class workers, and ordinary American people, improve.

Thank you to those who contacted their Senator and applied the pressure.  There was a great deal of feedback received by the senate in the past 24 hours.  There are those within the swamp lobbying community who are beginning to understand that WE KNOW far more than they ever thought we know.  Change is a direct consequence of that reality.

In a strong showing of bi-partisan support for Trump’s ‘America First’ trade platform the nominee for U.S. Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, was confirmed by the Senate with a vote of 82-14.  The U.S. Trade Representative is a critical position ahead of renegotiations of the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico.

Three Republicans voted NO: ♦Cory Gardner (Colorado), ♦John McCain (Arizona), and ♦Ben Sasse (Nebraska).

For the past 30 years Lighthizer has been a trade lawyer representing American steel companies in their efforts to fight dumping of foreign-made steel below costs and unfair steel subsidies from foreign governments. He has pledged to strengthen enforcement of existing trade deals and to find new legal tools to combat unfair trade practices.

Lighthizer has criticized some Republicans for being too pro-free trade. He told a Senate panel this year that the U.S. should have an “America first trade policy.”  “We can do better in negotiating our trade agreements and stronger in enforcing our trade laws,” he said.

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The economic lobbyist community known as The Big Club is represented most visibly by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Tom Donohue.

Via the Wall Street community, CoC President Donohue pours tens of millions of multinational corporate contributions into DC lobbying efforts to retain control over politicians and legislation that relates to U.S. trade and economic matters.   [FYI Donohue’s Chamber of Commerce lobbying group were the primary architects of the now dispatched TPP trade deal; they actually wrote the U.S. part of the construct.]

Tom Donohue funds a large number of politicians in DC in an effort to control the outcomes of legislation and policies that could become adverse to his multinational interests.  Two of those primary beneficiaries are John McCain and Ben Sasse.

As a consequence it doesn’t come as a surprise to see McCain and Sasse announce their intention to block the confirmation of U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer:

REUTERS – Republican U.S. Senators John McCain and Ben Sasse said on Wednesday they would vote against President Donald Trump’s nominee for U.S. trade representative, Robert Lighthizer, because of his opposition to the North American Free Trade Agreement.

“Unfortunately, your confirmation process has failed to reassure us that you understand the North American Free Trade Agreement’s (NAFTA) positive economic benefits to our respective States and the nation as a whole,” McCain and Sasse said in a letter to Lighthizer. (read more)

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and President Trump strongly support Lighthizer for U.S. Trade Rep.   The institutional control agents within K-Street, aka the economic lobbying group, do not.

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Earlier today, following a brief visit to the White House, Secretary Rex Tillerson welcomed Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov to the State Department.

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STATE DEPT – “I want to welcome Foreign Minister Lavrov to the State Department and express my appreciation for him making the trip to Washington so that we can continue our dialogue and our exchange of views that began in Moscow with the dialogue he hosted on a very broad range of topics. Thank you.”

~ Secretary Rex Tillerson

Again, the multidimensional politics of how President Trump utilized the leverage of Comey’s firing to diffuse the toxic antagonism with the Russian relationship is so far beyond diplomatic history making – modern historians have not yet been born who can aptly outline its consequence. (more…)

One of the reasons CTH writes about economic matters because constructing economic prediction theories based around political policy is a hobby of mine.  Within obscure data, raw and unfiltered up-stream activity, it is entirely possible to see over the horizon.

But newly engaged people also think I’m nuts; so therefore it is also fun conversation at parties to stand above the esoteric academic fray, smile and outline actual forecasts –very specific forecasts– that most would never consider possible from a linear perspective.

People pay a boat-load of money for proprietary ownership of very accurate forecasts.  However, CTH would rather do it open source and break the historic grip of the financial control class.

If you’ll permit me a little Funday indulgence; the other reason to share predictable consequences is so patriotic readers can take a pro-active and empowering position in their own decision-making.  That motive was one of the reasons for previously sharing:

[…]  Until the two economies gain parity – any fed activity, taken as a consequence to their familiar traditional measurements (interest rates etc.), will have minimal to negligible impact on Main Street.

• Regional areas which benefited from high yield and high rates of return from Wall Street, ie. investment benefactors, will begin economic contraction. The downstream effect on state finances, and the retail and high-end service industry will also be negatively impacted.

• However, industrial areas/middle-class areas, with affordable housing and reasonable infrastructure, which have suffered in the past 20+ years, will see home values increasing as the local economy expands.

National policy (Trump Policy) which benefits Main Street also benefits local economics which are founded in manufacturing, production, and ancillary services.  In essence, the Middle-Class.

Those who benefited from high-yield international investment income will see less income.  Those who live on savings will see a moderate benefit.  However, those living day-to-day and week-to-week on their paychecks will see much more income.  Believe it. (link)

Now check out this headline from AP today discussing Connecticut:

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Are people beginning to catch on? Are people beginning to identify the long-ball strategy of a non-traditional approach toward geo-political alliances?

Apparently, some are – because North Korea is not happy with the heavy pressure coming from Big Panda, China.  As identified within this radio interview between Dr. Gorka and Brian Kilmeade…

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I don’t want to say, I told you so… but:

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Earlier we shared the remarks by Secretary Rex Tillerson as he opened a U.N. Ministerial Session on North Korea’s nuclear ambition. However, what we were unable to find was video of the closing remarks.

The closing remarks by T-Rex were intensely direct. The video is available on the State Department Website HERE. (w/ Transcript Below)  There are some critical forward policy points outlined in the T-Rex closing.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: I shall now make a further statement in my capacity as Secretary of State of the United States.

First, I appreciate all of the statements that have been made by you, and I have received those statements in the constructive spirit in which I know they’ve been offered. I also want to acknowledge the presence of a large number of ambassadors with us today. Your presence gives strength to the importance of this issue. It is a visible demonstration of the importance of this issue to the international community, and I welcome you, and I appreciate you being here.

It has been stressed repeatedly in many of your statements today North Korea has failed to honor its commitments of the past. It has made promises which it has broken. Had this body fully enforced and stood behind resolutions it had enacted in the past, vigorously enforcing sanctions with full compliance, perhaps we would not have found ourselves confronted with the high level of tension that we face today.

We will not negotiate our way back to the negotiating table with North Korea. We will not reward their violations of past resolutions. We will not reward their bad behavior with talks. We will only engage in talks with North Korea when they exhibit a good-faith commitment to abiding by the Security Council resolutions and their past promises to end their nuclear programs.

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