Apparently Justin from Canada is coming to the White House for a meeting with President Trump…

WHITE HOUSE – President Donald J. Trump will welcome Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada to the White House on June 20, 2019. The visit will reaffirm America’s deep partnership with Canada, and allow the two leaders to address opportunities and challenges related to expanding bilateral cooperation.
President Trump and Prime Minister Trudeau will discuss the shared economic interests of their countries, including the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement and opportunities to drive more growth and create jobs in both the United States and Canada. The two leaders will also discuss the upcoming G20 Summit, which will take place from June 28 to 29 in Osaka, Japan. (read more)

Last month, Manny Montenegrino had a good discussion with Ezra Levant about the current issues with the relationship between Justin from Canada and President Trump.  Against the backdrop of this upcoming visit, it’s worth revisiting:
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The border and migration “agreement” with Mexico is a smart move by President Trump. If you worry that Mexico won’t take any action, well, don’t underestimate the dynamic President Trump just put into play.
Financial investment flows based on expectation, probability and risk management. If you don’t think Mexico will follow-up with their end of the bargain; then you are predicting the tariffs will reappear in 90-days.

Overlooked by most of the financial pundits President Trump has pre-positioned risk management actuaries with the basis for their analysis and internal investment advice. In a similar move last year, President Trump suspended tariffs against China based on an agreement (G20 summit in Argentina). After several months and a 150 page initial agreement of principle, China walked away from their prior promises and  terms.  The tariffs against China were immediately implemented at the previous rate.
That China example with tariffs is now the baseline for all multinational investment to consider as they review their current exposure in Mexico. If any financial investor (bank or corporation) believes Mexico will not adhere to the border/migration agreement, then by extension they are accepting/predicting the Mexican tariffs will take effect in 90-days.
Put another way… President Trump has just given notice to all global business interests to organize their financial affairs toward Mexico within 90 days.
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Vice-President Mike Pence traveled to Canada today as an emissary of the Trump administration to support Canadian passage of the USMCA trade agreement.
According to Reuters media reports the vice-president was focused on the importance of a strong North American economic alliance, and how a united tri-lateral agreement can form a geopolitical hedge against influence from communist China and socialist ideologies in Cuba and Venezuela. Justin from Canada expressed his perspectives over diminished women’s rights, U.S. abortion laws, the important contributions of a transgender workforce, climate change and the NBA championship playoffs…. Yes, really:

Chrystia Freeland has presented the initial procedural process for  the Canadian Parliament to take up a bill to pass the USMCA.  However, the Canadian window is short, if they don’t ratify the trade pact by the end of June, the Canadian parliament will go into legislative recess until after the general elections October 21st, 2019.

OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canada took a first step toward ratifying the new North American trade agreement on Monday just three days ahead of U.S. Vice President Mike Pence’s trip to Ottawa to discuss the passage of the treaty.
Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland presented what is known as a “ways and means motion” to the House of Commons, which opens the way for the formal presentation of a bill.

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A combination of the NAFTA “Fatal Flaw” & transnational Chinese shipments, was always at the heart of President Trump placing steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico during negotiations that culminated in the USMCA trade agreement.  The goal was to block China from dumping product into the U.S. through the doors of Canada/Mexico.
Within the USMCA President Trump and Robert Lighthizer placed a specific rule Article 32:10 which grants the U.S. the right to veto (control) Canadian and Mexican purchase agreements with “Non FTA Market Countries”, ie. China.

This Article 32:10 rule is at the core of the USMCA agreement.   However, after the USMCA agreement was reached President Trump kept the Steel/Aluminum tariffs in place.  For those who don’t understand Trump (insert Chrystia Freeland here) the question was always: why?
Quite simply the answer behind the question was President Trump’s retention of leverage. Yes, in 2018 the USMCA was agreed to; however, the USMCA was not ratified by either Canada or Mexico…. it was only an agreement.  Why would Trump remove critical leverage on an initial promise.
Trump is not a politician; he’s a businessman who knows promises are paper until they become action. Additionally, President Trump is a tactician; the tariff leverage was held until such a time as removing it would generate an immediate gain in national compliance toward his trade objective… That’s the action.  Today:

(Bloomberg) President Donald Trump said the U.S. will lift steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico, boosting efforts to encourage lawmakers to ratify a new North American trade deal.
“I’m pleased to announce that we’ve just reached an agreement with Canada and Mexico and will be selling our product into those countries without the imposition of tariffs or major tariffs,” Trump said at an event Friday. “Hopefully Congress will approve the USMCA quickly.”

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Today President Trump outlines an approach to head-off the anticipated retaliation from China over the increase in U.S. tariffs that began today. Whether this is structurally possible, or whether this is Trump’s attempt to diminish the leverage carried by Vice-Chairman Liu He, is an interesting question. However, the strategy is clear.
Overall U.S. inflation remains low relative to the economic gains from MAGAnomic policy. [Current CPI HERE].  GDP and wage growth are both exceeding inflation. As such, now is indeed the best time to confront China. President Trump notes this today in a tweet:

Inflation in the U.S. remains low overall at 1.8%…. now is the perfect time to hit Beijing with expanded tariffs.  However, President Trump knows China will retaliate through the multinationals on Wall Street.  President Trump knows China will specifically target the U.S. Agriculture sector. China will likely attempt to put pressure on Trump by refusing to buy U.S. farm product. The BIG AG multinationals will go bananas.
The BIG AG multinationals, those who control food/farm production, also control key Senators; they have been purchased through lobbyists. This is part of the Big Club approach/strategy.  Wall Street and the U.S. Senate will be aligned to support China; as a consequence President Trump needs to counteract their effort.
President Trump’s approach to counteract China’s strike against the U.S. agricultural community is visible in a series of tweets today.  I don’t necessarily agree with the proposal long-term, BUT I do understand the short-term objective…. optimum expediency.
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Director of the National Economic Council, Larry Kudlow, discusses the booming U.S. economy, the future outlook and why he supports the USMCA deal.

A tale of two contrasting sets of economic priorities. The U.S. economy continues to outpace all economic forecasts.  Recently U.S. retail sales, wage growth and housing starts have exceeded all expectations.  Tomorrows announced U.S. GDP growth is positioned to exceed all previous doomsayer predictions from the professional financial back-bench.
However, the economic results in Canada are going in the opposite direction.  The Bank of Canada cut their GDP forecast from 1.7% to 1.2% today.  A forecast drop of half a percent is a massive drop considering the prior rate of growth was meager at best.

Two full years into the advancement of America-First priorities, the international community is now admitting they can only find growth and value in U.S. investments.

(Via Reuters) […] The [Canadian] central bank now expects economic growth in the first half of 2019 to be lower than anticipated in January, when it released its last monetary policy report, due to a slowdown in Canada’s oil sector, the negative impact of global trade policies and a weaker-than-expected housing sector.

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A massive defeat for the left-wing loons in Alberta Canada now means half the Canadian provinces are aligned against Justin’s rainbow-socks coalition and disastrous climate agenda.  Apparently having a common sense approach now means ‘right-of-center‘.

CALGARY, Alberta (Reuters) – A right-of-center party swept to power in Canada’s main oil-producing province of Alberta on Tuesday and attacked Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s efforts to fight climate change, raising tension just months ahead of a federal election.

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There’s a term called “zeroing” at the heart of this World Trade Organization decision that supports President Trump, Secretary Ross and USTR Lighthizer.
When an industry product like Canadian softwood lumber is shipped into the U.S. for sale at a lower price than exists in Canada, the U.S. Commerce department calls that “dumping“.  If the Canadian product is the same or higher in the U.S. as it is in Canada there is no dumping.  No dumping is a “zero” or normal price differential; hence “zeroing”.

The Canadian government is subsidizing their lumber industry by allowing tree removal from federal land at discounted rates so long as the lumber is exported.  This made softwood lumber cheaper in the U.S. than in Canada and set up the dumping issue.
[NOTE: This is the same issue with Steel and Aluminum from China]
U.S. lumber mills were going out of business because Canada was dumping subsidized product into the U.S. market at a discounted rate.  As a consequence, in 2017 Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross instituted a 20% tariff on Canadian lumber to protect the U.S. lumber industry.  The tariff is a countervailing duty to offset the Canadian subsidy. ie. “zeroing”.
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