According to the latest data from Statistics Canada, the Canadian economy lost a net of 68,300 jobs in September. This follows a loss of 41,700 positions in August and wipes out all job gains for the entire year 2026.
The alarming results come after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has led all provincial premiers in a coordinated effort to confront U.S. President Donald Trump through an “elbow’s up” program of political antagonism and trade conflict.
Based on economic scale, Canada losing 68,000 jobs in a month would be the U.S. equivalent of losing 500,000 jobs. The “elbow’s up” program may be politically beneficial to Prime Minister Carney, but the economic consequences are crushing the northern neighbors.
The Canadian dollar immediately weakened after the jobs report and was trading down 0.44% at C$1.4287 to the US dollar, or 69.99 US cents. Yields on the two-year government bonds reversed early moves and were trading down 9.5 basis points to 2.410%.
Initially, when the trade war was announced, CTH anticipated a bottom for the CAD at 50¢/USD under the trade reciprocity program. 50¢ remains the forecast target when the termination of the USMCA (CUSMA) is announced, and analysts have the opportunity to gauge the outcome.
Meaning, if the Canadian trade surplus with the USA was eliminated, and if all the non-tariff barriers were removed, and if full trade reciprocity programs were instituted, and if Canada has to stand on its own economic footing with NATO spending requirements, current domestic tax rates and GDP growth factored, $1 CAD will be worth around 50¢ USD.
Remember, the Bank of Canada has already run the numbers on this. ……”A cascading series of events could cause a sharp loss of investor confidence and lead to a spike in demand for liquidity or rapid asset sales”… {MAY ’26}
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