Whenever we discuss inflation, it is absolutely critical for people to understand that inflation itself is the measure of the percentage increase in a price over a period of time.

It is entirely possible, I would say absolutely guaranteed, that prices will increase even more this year as inflation begins to drop. This will be the economic story on the backside of the inflation hurricane as the Fed starts to increase interest rates. Example:

♦ 2021: A loaf of bread increases in price 50¢ from $1.00 to $1.50, a rate of inflation of 50%.

♦ 2022: That same loaf of bread increases in price by 60¢, from $1.50 to $2.10, a rate of inflation at 40%.

The price of the bread increased more in 2022 than 2021, but the rate of inflation dropped from 50% to 40%.

The White House and Federal Reserve state, correctly, that inflation is likely to drop.  However, the actual prices of the products are rising at a greater rate. This is the critical component of the inflation story that will remain with us throughout 2022.  Inflation is not measuring the increase in the price of an item.  Inflation is measuring the rate of the price increase as a percentage.

This is the context for the Federal Reserve to state today, they “hope” inflation slows down, because they are going to raise interest rates regardless of what is happening with the price of goods and services:

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People are starting to catch on.  First, how it is surfacing:

(Zero Hedge) ...”traders are paying bumper premiums for immediate supply” … “Commodities are severely undersupplied” … “The shortage of, well, everything has translated into record price of virtually all commodities: the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, which tracks 23 energy, metals and crop futures, has touched a record this year. That has been driven in part by surging oil prices, which have hit their highest level since 2014.” (read more)

CTH readers are specifically well positioned to understand what is happening in the background we have discussed two specific issues:

(1) In any era of hyper-inflation, we always see the advanced purchasing of inventory for profit.  Meaning, when prices are quickly rising multinationals use their size and power over commodity goods to store, physically or through contracted future purchases, goods that are held until a specific target price is reached and then sold for a bigger profit.  In 2022 the “supply chain disruption” is being used as a cover.

(2) In the modern era, the major multinationals control the supply of originating products.  There’s no such thing as a free market. In the modern era it is a controlled market.

Long before the word “inflation” hit the 2021 headlines, April/May of last year, CTH specifically identified where we are right now.

In the background right now, the multinationals are exploiting the two issues above.  The Zero Hedge article “Shortages of Everything” is discussing the surfacing symptom, i.e. goods traders willing to pay premium prices to secure inventories, not necessarily the root cause.

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Gasoline prices have risen, on average, 40% in the past 11 months.  This leads to higher consumer costs across the board.  Oil, currently $90/barrel, is going to go even higher as a merge of Biden economic, regulatory, energy and foreign policies are going to make things worse.

As the Obama-Biden administration previously said when they achieved their last historic increase in gas prices, “U.S. energy prices will necessarily skyrocket“, in order to achieve their ideological climate change objectives.

(VIA CNBC) Gas prices rose to the highest level in more than seven years Friday, on the heels of the U.S. oil benchmark topping $90 per barrel for the first time since 2014. 

The national average for a gallon of gas stood at $3.423 on Friday, according to AAA, slightly surpassing the prior high-water mark of $3.422 from Nov. 8.  Friday’s price means consumers are now paying the most at the pump since Sept. 10, 2014, AAA data shows.

The national average stood at $2.44 a year ago.  The rapid rise in prices is contributing to inflationary fears across the economy and is creating a headache for the Biden administration. (read more)

Yes, a president can and does control the price of gasoline.  What can a U.S. President and administration specifically do?  We have abundant U.S. energy resources.  Quite literally the strongest in the entire world.

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The latest BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLT) report [DATA HERE] reflects a headline of 4.3 million U.S. workers quitting in December.  However, that number is 161,000 fewer quits than November. The job openings are starting to fill up.

While there is evidence the mandatory vaccine requirements are still working through the job market, we are still about another month away before the fog clears from the private sector employment data.

This Friday we will see the unemployment data from December, but in the interim this JOLT’s report is tracking with CTH expectations.

The primary driver of the quits rate has been inflation.  Workers seeking higher wages in an effort to deal with inflation can get faster paycheck results by switching jobs rather than asking current employers for more money.

We have been watching this trend for several months.  However, the rate of job-jumping is slowing down as the available jobs to jump into are fewer, and the vaccine mandate impact is settling down.

Despite the number of job openings, blue collar workers are starting to see job vacancies decreasing.  The service industries around accommodation, food services and basic dirty fingernail positions still have many vacancies; this is the epicenter of where the job jumping takes place. Employment in durable goods manufacturing is at that phase where things are about to get sketchy for tradespeople and union workers.

The white collar jobs are static and/or slightly downsizing.  The total number of hires was 6.3 million for December, a drop of 333,000 from prior month.  The number of people hired in professional and business services dropped by 159,000.

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The same people who told us to appreciate saving $0.16 on our July 4th BBQs last summer are now taking the official position there is no massive food inflation.  [DATA HERE]

Those skyrocketing prices you think you see at the grocery store are not real.  Those announcements of forecasted price increases by the food producers, well, those are not real either.  So sayeth the United States Dept of Agriculture (USDA).

In their update to the USDA pricing forecast and analysis dated January 25, 2022, the USDA claims: “2021 retail food price inflation continued at same pace as 2020 but varied among food categories.”  Oh, but it gets even more stupid:

“USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) researchers project that prices for food-at-home, or food purchased typically from grocery stores or other food stores, will increase between 1.5 and 2.5 percent in 2022, lower than the 3.5-percent increase that occurred in both 2020 and 2021. Forecasts for all food categories for 2022 are available in ERS’s monthly Food Price Outlook data product, updated January 25, 2022.” (link)

If there was ever an argument that every single institution in the U.S. government was corrupt, manipulative and ideologically bent, this claim by the USDA would be a case study in the supportive evidence.

Apparently, if you are to follow the outlook of the USDA – and reconcile their institutional hypocrisy, Joe Biden increased the rate of food stamp assistance by 25 percent for some unknown reason.  Because according to the Dept of Agriculture, “Retail food prices increased by a mere 3.5 percent in 2021, equal to the rate in 2020.”

3.5% ?

You just cannot make this up.

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Last year, when CTH discussed the original Kraft-Heinz wholesale notification for January 2022, we warned it was only the first round.  The reason for waves of price increases is specifically, because each of the processed food categories is impacted differently depending on the amount of processing involved.  Each category is different.

This understanding is why we warned everyone in October of last year to make as much preparation as possible for waves of food inflation.  The original notification for contracted terms in 30, 60 and 90 days was +20%.  Meaning this month, on those group and sectors, prices to retailers went up by 20%, and you are seeing that in the supermarket now.

For the next wave, Kraft-Heinz is telling wholesalers the fulfillment shipments arriving in March will be up to +30% on the next categories.  Oscar Mayer proteins will be the biggest increase at the top end (+30%), Maxwell House coffee on the lower end (+5-10%) and the juice and drink category around +20%.  [A $5 beverage pack will cost $6 in a few short weeks.]

The processing sector is still dealing with cumulative cost increases.  The fulfillment terms are still catching up with the increased costs.  These announcements are ON TOP OF the current price increases we are feeling.  We are entering hyper-inflation.

If you look at the notification timing from Kraft foods, January 24th, you will see the categories we predicted to come next are the exact categories being outlined in this wave.

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A Gallup news survey [DATA HERE] indicates that eight out of ten Americans expect higher prices and continued rising inflation, as the working class can see the through the smoke and mirrors of the Biden economy.

Overall, there are multiple datapoints that show the economic quagmire that is taking place right now.  Gasoline continues to rise in price, as oil costs continue to skyrocket as an outcome of Biden energy policy.  Food store prices have only just begun to show the higher prices that are built into the replenishment process.

Newly arriving goods overall are at a much higher price that previous inventory.  The 30, 60 and 90-day terms of purchase order fulfillment are now reflecting the cumulative cost increases at every stage in the supply chain.  Inbound prices to retail are still climbing. This is an economic quagmire created by inflation that cannot be avoided.

Fuel, food, home energy and home prices overall are rising.  As a result, durable good spending has contracted.  CTH has pointed out this dynamic for almost five months; however, the actual data is difficult to extract, because the scale of government spending in 2021 has clouded all of the economic indicators.

The official government inflation statistics at 7 to 9% do not accurately reflect the real inflation being felt by consumers, which is in the 25 to 40 percent range for highly consumable products.  If you look around your local community, it is not difficult to see that working class Americans have modified all of their spending priorities to deal with the food, energy and housing inflation that cannot be avoided.

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There is really only one question that matters at the heart of the U.S. position toward Ukraine and NATO.  It was asked halfway through the press conference with Jennifer Psaki today.

“Considering that NATO allies have not held up their own agreement to spend 2 percent of their own GDP on their military preparedness … if Europeans are not willing to expend their own blood and treasure on their own self-defense why should Americans be expected to do so?” 

Spoiler Alert… The White House could not answer the question.  Jen Psaki hemmed, hawed, and attempted to use verbal linguistics to assemble previously over-used soundbites, but she could not -and did not- answer that question.  WATCH:

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‘Nuf said.

The honest answer would be…  We, in the Biden and Obama administration, are doing all this stuff in Ukraine, for Ukraine and under the auspices of protecting Ukraine, because a whole bunch of us from both political parties in/around the DC beltway – along with our families – receive massive amounts of personal financial wealth from the DC money laundering operation of foreign aid money in/around Ukraine.

That’s the real answer, and the reason Psaki cannot reconcile the easiest question publicly.   The NATO members also know that American politicians enrich themselves and their families through the laundry of foreign aid to their own bank accounts.

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The preparation window has closed.

Given the destabilized and tenuous nature of the current supply chain, many people wondered if the Biden administration would actually be stupid enough to follow through with a truck driver vaccination mandate.  The answer is yes.  Please conduct yourselves accordingly.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) updated their guidance yesterday [LINK HERE] and put a hard date of tomorrow, January 22nd, for the trucker vaccine mandate at all border crossings and ferry terminals.   Canada put the vaccine mandate into effect last week, January 15th.

[Dept. of Homeland Security] – [..]  “Starting on January 22, 2022, the Department of Homeland Security will require that non-U.S. individuals entering the United States via land ports of entry or ferry terminals along our Northern and Southern borders be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 and be prepared to show related proof of vaccination,” said Secretary Alejandro N. Mayorkas. “These updated travel requirements reflect the Biden-Harris Administration’s commitment to protecting public health while safely facilitating the cross-border trade and travel that is critical to our economy.”

These changes – which were first announced in October 2021 and made in consultation with the White House and several federal agencies, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) – will align public health measures that govern land travel with those that govern incoming international air travel.

Non-U.S. individuals traveling to the United States via land ports of entry or ferry terminals, whether for essential or non-essential reasons, must:

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When Joe Biden took to the microphones in October to announce, “a series of public and private commitments to move more goods faster, and strengthen the resiliency of our supply chains, by moving towards 24/7 operations at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach,” the supply chain objective was to increase the productivity of the ports.  However, data released for November [SEE HERE] and now December, show exactly the opposite.

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg visited both ports recently.  Both ports, along with Oakland, also made the arriving ships remain further offshore than when the October announcement was made.  They are hiding the ships.

For some unknown reason the Port of Los Angeles (POLA) has delayed reporting of December; but the Port of Long Beach (POLB) just released their data {LINK}.  What the statistics show is that less cargo is being handled now, than it was when the 24/7 port operations announcement was made:

The purpose of telling the ships to await their port time in a queue farther offshore is transparent.  The Biden administration wants to give the illusion they eliminated the bottleneck of container ships.   Out of sight is out of mind.

Operation ‘Hide the Ships’ allows the administration to make claims about port efficiencies and increased productivity that are abjectly false.  The data from the two months after the announcement shows less container offloading and onloading happened in November and December than happened in the prior month of October when the new initiatives were announced.

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