Giddy up.  Two days of intense trade discussions begin today in the Eisenhower building led by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and his Chinese counterpart Vice Premier Liu He. The stakes are high as the deadline for an agreement is March 2nd.
Ambassador Lighthizer is joined by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, and China’s arch nemesis, White House trade advisor Peter Navarro.

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Adding to the intensity, the United States just charged Chinese telecommunications company Huawei Technologies and its chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, with conspiring to violate U.S. sanctions on Iran by doing business through a subsidiary.  Ms. Meng was arrested in Canada at the request of the United States; her extradition has been requested by the Department of Justice.
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According to the DOJ announcement released today three companies: Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd., Huawei Device USA Inc. and Skycom Tech Co. Ltd. are charged with bank fraud and conspiracy to commit bank fraud, wire fraud and conspiracy to commit wire fraud, violations of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and conspiracy to violate IEEPA, and conspiracy to commit money laundering. Huawei and Huawei USA are charged with conspiracy to obstruct justice related to the grand jury investigation in the Eastern District of New York.
Additionally Ms. Meng Wanzhou is charged with bank fraud, wire fraud, and conspiracies to commit bank and wire fraud.  Acting U.S. Attorney General Matthew G. Whitaker, Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Secretary Wilbur Ross of the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Attorney Richard P. Donoghue for the Eastern District of New York, FBI Director Christopher A. Wray, Assistant Attorney General Brian A. Benczkowski of the Justice Department’s Criminal Division and Assistant Attorney General John C. Demers of the National Security Division, announced the charges:

Transcript of AAG Matt Whitaker announcement HERE.
Details of DOJ Indictment HERE.
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Keep in mind that China has loaned Venezuela over $50 billion in the past five years. In exchange, Venezuela gave China a 49% stake in PDVSA. Venezuela makes payments on the loans via oil shipments to China.

(VIA U.S. Treasury Dept) Today the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) designated Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PdVSA) pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 13850 for operating in the oil sector of the Venezuelan economy. PdVSA is a Venezuelan state-owned oil company and a primary source of Venezuela’s income and foreign currency, to include U.S. dollars and Euros.

“The United States is holding accountable those responsible for Venezuela’s tragic decline, and will continue to use the full suite of its diplomatic and economic tools to support Interim President Juan Guaidó, the National Assembly, and the Venezuelan people’s efforts to restore their democracy,” said Secretary of the Treasury Steven T. Mnuchin.

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The diplomatic activity that took place in the lead-up to the events yesterday must have been exceptionally coordinated.  Literally within minutes of Venezuela’s legislature decreeing opposition leader Juan Guaido as interim president  dozens of countries aligned with support and affirmation.
Earlier today Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivered remarks about the U.S. support for Guaido and the people of Venezuela during a speech at the OAS:

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[Transcript] SECRETARY POMPEO: Thank you very much. The United States is a friend of Venezuela and of the Venezuelan people. We have watched Venezuelans suffer for far too long. We know what they know, that the tyranny of the now defunct Maduro regime has far too long – for far too long choked the country and its citizens.
Yesterday, in solidarity with the Venezuelan people, and out of respect for Venezuelan democracy, the United States proudly recognized National Assembly President Juan Guaido as the interim president of Venezuela. You’ve seen the statements from President Trump and from myself.
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The Precursor – Yesterday there was a meeting at the White House between FL Senator Rick Scott, FL Governor Ron DeSantis, FL Senator Marco Rubio, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and President Donald Trump.  Florida is home to most of the Venezuela political exiles and opposition groups who oppose Venezuela’s dictator Nicolas Maduro.
Today, Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido declared himself interim president while surrounded by thousands of supporters. At a rally that brought hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans into the east of Caracas, Guaido said Maduro had usurped power and promised to create a transitional government that would help the country escape its hyperinflationary economic collapse.

“I swear to assume all the powers of the presidency to secure an end to the usurpation,” 35-year old Guaido, the head of the opposition-run congress, told an exuberant crowd.

Minutes later, U.S. President Donald Trump recognized Guaido as the legitimate interim president.
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Yesterday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivered a video-conference message to the assembly of international economic leadership in Davos. [Full remarks and transcript below]

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[Transcript] SECRETARY POMPEO: Good morning, and thank you, Borge, for your kind introduction. And thank you to the World Economic Forum for the invitation to speak today. It’s 18 degrees Fahrenheit here in Washington, D.C. You see the Lincoln Memorial to my back. So while I’m not here in person, I at least feel like I’m in Davos with the weather.
It’s interesting times that we live in. Over the past few years, all around the world, voters have tuned out politicians and political alliances that they thought weren’t representing their interests. A few examples of new directions that people have taken: Brexit; the election of President Macron in France; the rise of the Five Star Movement in Italy; Mahathir’s comeback in Malaysia; and of course, Borge, as you referenced, the election of President Donald Trump.
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Director of the National Economic Council Larry Kudlow responded to a fake news story the U.S. has canceled a trade meeting with China; never happened – there was no meeting scheduled.  Mr. Kudlow discusses some of the granular issues within the ongoing trade discussion with the Chinese.
Additionally, Chairman Kudlow discusses his outlook for the economy in light of the government shutdown.

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There are some political observers who believe an extended government shutdown, that can impact the overall U.S. economy, is actually the goal behind the Pelosi strategy.  There is a plausible basis for this perspective.  Tom Donohue (et al) and Wall Street (writ large) would be the primary beneficiaries if Pelosi can break the “America First” economic focus.  It would not surprise me to find out the Big Club people behind the Pelosi/Schumer strategy hold this K-Street intent.  We’ll have to keep watching.
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The baseline when reviewing economic data from China is to remember the entire economy is controlled by the communist central government.  If they say the economy is “less strong” than previously expected, generally we can anticipate the truth is much worse.
The second aspect to remember is that many U.S. manufacturers made anticipatory advanced purchases, building up inventory ahead of possible tariffs, in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2018.  Those advance purchases can amplify any manufacturing slow down.

BEIJING (Reuters) – China is expected to report on Monday that economic growth cooled to its slowest in 28 years in 2018 amid weakening domestic demand and bruising U.S. tariffs, adding pressure on Beijing to roll out more support measures to avert a sharper slowdown.
Growing signs of weakness in China — which has generated nearly a third of global growth in the past decade — are stoking worries about risks to the world economy and are weighing on profits for firms ranging from Apple to big carmakers.

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A big day for geopolitical moves.

Earlier today President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and North Korean Minister Kim Yong Chol held a 90 minute meeting at the White House discussing ongoing talks and negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea.

Following the meeting the White House announced there would be a second summit between President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un:

“President Donald J. Trump met with Kim Yong Chol for an hour and half, to discuss denuclearization and a second summit, which will take place near the end of February. The President looks forward to meeting with Chairman Kim at a place to be announced at a later date.”  (link)

(Via Fox News) […] The face-to-face came after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with Kim Yong-chol, North Korea’s lead negotiator, in the nation’s capital early Friday morning to negotiate terms that could lead to a second nuclear summit between Trump and Pyongyang leader Kim Jong-un.

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In November of last year the New York Post interviewed President Trump asking specifically why he was not declassifying “spygate” documents, and inquiring about the purpose for his reluctance.  President Trump responded: “Maybe it’s better that the public not see what’s been going on with this country.”  Many people were disappointed, but its always been President Trump’s primary MAGA agenda to focus on economic security.

As the president has repeatedly stated: “economic security is national security.”  And with that cornerstone as the foundation, any evidence of a ‘Five-Eye’ ally participating in the scheme against Trump becomes leverage.  Cue the example:

EUROPE – European officials said today they will make tariffs on steel imports to the region permanent to help stem the glut of supply sparked by Donald Trump’s trade war against China.

The move highlights that protectionism is spreading and Donald Trump’s trade war with China is entrenching itself into the global economy.

The EU will impose quotas on 26 product categories and levy a 25% duty on imports exceeding those quotas, the executive arm said on Wednesday. The move cements proposals laid out last July with the stated aim of protecting European steelmakers amid Chinese overcapacity.

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