This is interesting.  CNN’s Martin Savage traveled to the democrat stronghold in Minnesota to talk about the 2020 election.  Much to the angst of the production unit they discover thousands of Minnesota voters have switched to support President Trump.

“Thousands of people switching and changing their politics?”  ….Yes, why yes they are.

The two key issues highlighted in the interviews surround President Trump’s economic policies: “he’s the party for jobs”; and President Trump’s immigration policies: “Ilhan Omar is not popular here.”   WATCH:

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For the past several weeks China has been hoping to divide the trade dispute into two tracks thereby separating trade issues related to U.S. national security.  Beijing wants, heck needs, the simple agricultural trade because they are food dependent and need that uninterrupted.  However, they are strongly opposed to a comprehensive trade reset.
Beijing wants to wait-out President Trump on the more substantive issues surrounding: intellectual property rights; forced transfer of IP and manufacturing secrets; non tariff barriers including limited access to China’s controlled markets; and state run company subsidies that lead to market dumping and saturation.
Along with avoiding legal compliance issues, China wants to carve-out the complex stuff from a simple trade agreement.
However, when asked today about the possibility of carving out a partial deal President Trump emphatically said: “NO”.  During a press conference with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, President Trump said:

“We’re looking for a complete deal, I’m not looking for a partial deal.  China has been starting to buy our agricultural product; if you noticed over the last week, and actually some very big purchases. But that’s not what I’m looking for, we’re looking for the big deal.

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Earlier today President Trump and First Lady Melania welcomed Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Mrs. Jenny Morrison to the White House.  Prior to delegation meetings the President and Prime Minister held a press availability in the oval office.
As part of the breaking news discussion, President Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced new sanctions on Iran.  [Video and FULL Transcript Below]

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[Transcript] PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you very much everybody. It’s a great honor to have the Prime Minister of Australia. And congratulations and thank you very much, Mrs. Morrison. Thank you very much for being here. We appreciate it. This was a lovely ceremony. I hope you liked it.
PRIME MINISTER MORRISON: Absolutely.
MRS. MORRISON: We absolutely loved it.
PRESIDENT TRUMP: It was in honor of you and Australia.
MRS. MORRISON: Thank you.
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Michael Pillsbury traveled to Hong Kong recently to help explain the goals and objectives of President Trump’s U.S-China trade position.  During an interview, Mr. Pillsbury warns Beijing interests not to interpret the current U.S. position as aggressive, because the dragon has yet to see the severe side to Trump’s position.

During an interview with the South China Morning Post, Pillsbury points out there are a great many more ways that President Trump is prepared to respond if the combative trade position from China remains hostile to any concessions.  This first option was their best option.  However, should they choose further trade conflict, President Trump will happily oblige.
CTH research on Trump’s outlook, vis-a-vis China, has led us to believe there is no upper limit to the economic weapons President Trump is willing to deploy; and considering that Pillsbury can be relied upon to deliver honest, accurate and deliberate remarks about the White House position, these warnings from a close advisor to the President should be weighted accordingly.

(South China Morning Post) – The United States is set to ramp up the pressure on China if a trade deal is not agreed soon, a key White House adviser said, adding that Washington has so far imposed only “low level tariffs” on the Asian giant.

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Fox News host Maria Bartiromo had Kevin McCarthy and Larry Kudlow on Fox Business to discuss the status of ratification for the USMCA agreement.   After McCarthy outlines the politics of Nancy Pelosi intentionally holding back the ratification vote, and states if the agreement is not passed prior to Thanksgiving it will not be done, Larry Kudlow follows up with a more optimistic outlook.

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Keep in mind, Speaker Pelosi doesn’t know that close trade followers are aware of her deal with Justin Trudeau to hold back on ratification in an blatantly political effort. Here’s Kevin McCarthy’s full interview.
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This is a topic we have previously discussed.  The current status is unfortunately what CTH previously predicted….  The consequences here are very serious.

Representative Denver Riggleman (R-Va.), a member of the House Financial Services Committee, claims a significant number of House Democrats are ready to vote to approve the USMCA trade deal.  However, Nancy Pelosi is holding back the vote.

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Everyone agrees that passage of the USMCA would provide leverage for the U.S. position in both China and EU trade negotiations.  Representative Andy Barr says despite a likely 300+ vote of support, he believes Pelosi is stalling to block that exact leverage.
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The dance with the dragon is a complex geopolitical relationship between two large economies. China’s view within the dynamic is shaped by their own internal ideology and outlook.  The panda mask dynamic was/is strategic and has served them well for decades; but now President Trump -while engaging a structural confrontation- has used the panda strategy against Beiing’s interests.  China is flummoxed.

Each of President Trump’s trade team members have a specific role; each member also has a specific opponent within the dance:
♦Peter Navarro is the blue-collar hawk. He focuses on the the administration’s Wall Street adversaries; and the U.S. multinationals -American companies- who have aligned their interests with Beijing.  Navarro’s focus is internal to U.S. interests.  Navarro confronts  U.S. corporations, Wall Street interests, who are working against Main Street.
♦Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin carries the economic financial weapons (represents the dollar), and he faces toward global adversaries (IMF, World Bank, European Central Bank etc.) who have also aligned their interests with Beijing and the status quo.
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This is funny in so many ways; especially for CTH readers who have a far better-than-ordinary understanding of the big picture Trump goals around China.
(1) CNBC tweeted this story last night (note the date/time). (2) It is written exclusively from the perspective of the Goldman Sachs analysts who represent the U.S. multinational position. (3) However, the article was actually written on May 12, 13, 2019.

What is funny about CNBC pushing this story, NOW, is how the claims within the CNBC story can be fact checked; and their predictions are, well, absurd (especially in hindsight).   Keep in mind this was written in May, and tweeted last night for some reason:

(Via CNBC) “Goldman Sachs said the cost of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump last year against Chinese goods has fallen “entirely” on American businesses and households, with a greater impact on consumer prices than previously expected.

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The recession-hoping pundits took more blows to their remaining credibility today when both the Commerce Department and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) deliver excellent economic results from August that continue to exceed MSM expectations.
The Commerce Dept. announced that retail sales climbed by 0.4 percent in August, twice as high as the 0.2 percent analysts had predicted. The result highlights retail sales strength of more than 4 percent year-over-year.   These excellent results come on the heels of blowout data in July, when households boosted purchases of cars and clothing.

The better-than-expected number stemmed largely from a 1.8 percent jump in spending vehicles. Online sales, meanwhile, also continued to climb, rising 1.6 percent. That’s similar to July, when Amazon held its two-day, blowout Prime Day sale. (link)

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In a quiet admission of food dependency, China purchased 600,000 tonnes of soybeans yesterday (link), and simultaneously announced that U.S. pork and soybean imports would be exempt from further tariff increases.
The surface message Beijing is selling, surrounds their magnanimous panda narrative of reaching out to diminish trade friction.  However, below the surface everyone knows China cannot feed itself,and if food prices keep rising they could likely have growing unrest.

Beijing’s decision to not enhance tariffs of pork and soybeans is very self serving; particularly because China owns Smithfield foods, the largest producer of U.S. pork.  In essence China has lessened tariffs against their own company.

(SCMP) China has announced that it will exclude imports of US soybeans, pork and other farm goods from additional trade war tariffs, opening the door for significant purchases of agricultural products.
The official Xinhua News Agency reported on Friday that China’s National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce made the exemption in response to the US’ decision of postpone an increase in the tariff rate on $250 billion of Chinese goods from October 1 to October 15.

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