President Donald Trump has announced a 35% baseline tariff rate for Canada on all imported goods not currently covered under the soon-to-expire USMCA trade agreement.

“Instead of working with the United States, Canada retaliated with its own Tariffs,” President Trump shared on Truth Social. “Starting August 1, 2025, we will charge Canada a Tariff of 35% on Canadian products sent into the United States, separate from all Sectoral Tariffs.”

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As noted by President Trump in his remarks during Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to the White House, Trump plans to renegotiate the USMCA and end the trilateral agreement in favor of two bilateral trade deals.

During the oval office meeting President Trump said, “as you know [USMCA] terminates fairly shortly. It gets renegotiated fairly shortly.” Then the biggest statement, “this was a transitional deal, and we’ll see what happens, we’re going to start renegotiating that”… “I don’t know if it serves a purpose anymore.”  …. “And the biggest purpose it served was, we got rid of NAFTA.” 

President Trump is going to exit the trilateral USMCA in favor of two distinctly different bilateral trade agreements between the U.S and Mexico; and the U.S and Canada.  The only consideration now is the timing.  President Trump is 100% focused on the BIG ECONOMIC PICTURE; it’s not about the politics, it’s all about the economics.

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It’s the reverse rustbelt issue.  In order to retain their market share, Japanese automakers are slashing the prices of their export vehicles to the USA.  However, simultaneous with the anticipated drop in profits, the Japanese economists are worrying what impact this will have on autoworker wages.

Not accidentally this is exactly the problem U.S. workers suffered through during the era of offshoring our manufacturing. Apparently, Japan is heading into the dynamic the U.S. rustbelt previously suffered.  Imagine that.

The Straits Times – TOKYO – Japan’s automakers slashed the price of products exported to the United States at record pace, in a sign that companies are sacrificing profits to remain competitive as President Donald Trump’s tariffs hit cars.

In June, the export price index for vehicles shipped to North America plunged 19.4 per cent from a year earlier on a contract currency basis, the biggest drop in records going back to 2016, according to the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) corporate goods price report on July 10.

The data adds to signs that Japanese automakers are trying to avoid a major price increase to remain competitive in the US, even after Mr Trump began to impose 25 per cent auto tariffs in early April. The flip side of the move is it raises concerns over companies’ profitability and whether they can continue to keep raising wages – a key component of the Bank of Japan’s sustainable inflation goal.

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President Donald Trump has begun posting the country specific tariff rate announcements on his Truth Social account.

Beginning with Japan and South Korea, President Trump is sending letters to each nation not currently in direct negotiations with the USA.  Japan example below:

Both Japan and South Korea are assigned 25% baseline tariff rates “separate from all Sectoral Tariffs.”  Additionally, if the nation participates in transnational shipping, the rate attempting to be avoided will be applied to the country violating the trade position.

Example:  South Korea (25%) acts as a passthrough for a country with a higher tariff rate like Vietnam, 40%.  If South Korea is caught engaging in transnational shipping then the applied tariff rate on the South Korean goods is 40%.

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Appearing on CNBC to explain the big picture economics, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlines how debt and deficit hawks are seemingly blind to the need for GDP growth to deal with federal spending.

From the outset of President Trump’s MAGAnomic policies in his T-1 and T-2 platform, growing the U.S. economy, expanding the size of the GDP is a key facet to dealing with debt and deficits.  President Trump has always promoted economic policy that expands the size of the pie rather than focus on making smaller portions of each spending slice.

Secretary Bessent also explains the current status of the tariffs as delivered by the Trump administration.  The next few days are exceptionally busy with incoming requests to renegotiate trade terms, and avoid countervailing duties.  WATCH:

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Big picture:  Trump, Lutnick and Greer are now transmitting 1. Baseline tariffs (10-20%), 2. Reciprocity tariffs (trade imbalance) and 3. Section 232 tariffs (ex. Steel and Aluminum).  Countries are notified and their tariff rate begins on August 1st.

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President Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hold an impromptu press conference before departing Bedminster, New Jersey en route to the White House.

Topics included the devastating flood in Texas, Elon Musk creating a third party, the ongoing trade negotiations and pending tariffs, President Trump’s conversations with both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy as well as the upcoming visit of Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House on Monday.

As noted by Secretary Lutnick the new tariff rates go into effect August 1st.  WATCH:

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The intransigent European Union is hitting a dead end with immovable Trump on the issue of tariffs.  The resulting dynamic is what we would expect given 75 years of the Marshall Plan (European Recovery Plan) as part of the EU’s only point of reference.

In order for the EU to maintain its socialistic form of government, it needs to continue the economic benefits from one-way tariffs that exploits the American consumer market.  President Trump’s plan to force reciprocity is against its entire economic foundation.  The EU simply cannot fathom life without the status quo.

In many ways the EU is in the same position as Canada. From its perspective, economic reciprocity is not sustainable; it would have to change its social compacts. This is the core of the conflict.

The EU trade delegation hit a brick wall in Washington DC, as the U.S. trade team reiterated the baseline tariffs are not something within the negotiation dynamic.

BRUSSELS — The European Union is weighing a provisional trade deal with the United States that would maintain a 10 percent tariff on most exports, the European Commission told EU ambassadors on Friday.

The EU executive reported back after a crucial round of talks in Washington on Thursday, in which Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič sought to head off a threat by President Donald Trump to impose a 50 percent tariff on all European goods from July 9 if no deal is reached.

In addition to the baseline tariff, conversations would continue on providing relief to specific industry sectors such as cars, two national officials cited top Commission officials as saying.

The outcome fell short of expectations in European capitals after the Commission’s trade negotiating team had previously said the possibility of “up-front” tariff relief for some industries was under consideration. The U.S. levies 25 percent tariffs on cars and 50 percent on steel and aluminum. (read more)

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There is some interesting information within the video of President Trump aboard AF-1 as he returns from Florida. However, one of the more interesting aspects comes around 05:39 when asked if he was thinking about extending the tariff pause beyond July 8, 2025.

As noted by President Trump, very firmly, no. There is no reason to extend the deadline for reciprocal tariffs beyond July 8th for any country not in direct negotiations as of that date. Trump intends to just send them a letter outlining the applied tariff rate and that’s it. Done is done. WATCH:

This firm date is why India has extended their negotiation team in Washington DC, and is also the reason why Europe is coming Thursday.  The baseline tariffs are done, everyone pays 10% regardless of a FTA or not.  The reciprocal tariff rate will be applied to those without an FTA effective July 9th.

[The EU (who wants a trade deal now) is eventually going to align with Canada (who will need a trade deal later).  This factors into the current trade dynamic and looms over the decision making.]

Post July 9th, President Trump moves on to other important geopolitical matters with the tariffs as an ancillary weapon for adherence to the new international trade alignment.  Those who want to benefit commit to the U.S. dollar as the trade currency (that’s the reason for India’s announcement today), and trade preferences are then used to shake up the geopolitical alignments.  Watch for how this plays out with Trump’s planned UK visit.

From there, and after the gnashing of teeth settles down, later in the summer President Trump then triggers the USMCA renegotiation phase with Mexico and Canada.   President Trump is essentially ambivalent to the pleas from nations who want to continue their trade imbalance.  This sequencing and outline appears clear; but let’s watch and see what happens.

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♦ Some people just can’t take a win.  For the “I need to be outraged” group I would suggest their best time for complaining would be to join the collective association of the tech crew (Musk/Thiel), the alligator emojis (DeSantis/Cruz Crew) and the CONservative free traders (Massie, Paul, Roy).  That group of always unhappy, whining and never satisfied knuckleheads will welcome the griping, bitching and moaning.

However, that doesn’t work here. We have a big win to celebrate.

♦ The Senate version of the previously passed Big Beautiful Bill cuts more spending than originally delivered from the House.  You might ask why then did spending opposition narratives surface now and not when it passed through the House? Good question, we’ll get to that ‘political answer’ in a moment.

For now, the BBB is on track as it was originally planned (by July 4th); albeit right at the outer limits of the predicted timeframe that was announced in January.

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The Senate BBB passed on a 50-50 vote split, highlighting it was the most conservative bill that could possibly squeak through the Senate.  It is the culmination of MAGA interests -vs- MAGA opposition, with the biggest win being the $70 billion for border security and ongoing deportation operations.

The original plan was always to use rescission bills to cut out the DOGE waste. Per Senate rules, the rescissions/cuts cannot be done until after the initial funding bill is passed (that’s BBB). Timeline: July – BBB, Aug – Rescission bills to cut DOGE waste {examples}, and Sept – FY 2026 Budget bill which begins October 1st.

Additionally, the narrative about the Senate bill including Medicaid spending for illegal aliens is false.

♦ The ban on Medicaid for illegal aliens is actually stronger than initially thought [See page 602. Section 77109].  As noted by Senator Schmidt, “the bill actually goes much further than the house version – beyond banning Medicaid for 1.4 million illegal aliens, it: • Requires states to verify citizenship status before providing coverage • Bans automatic Medicaid enrollment for children of illegal aliens • Excludes DACA from Medicaid.”

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A serendipitous article about information from European Commission officials Björn Seibert and Sabine Weyand, as EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič urgently heads to Washington DC for emergency talks Thursday against the backdrop of a July 8 deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump to do a deal or face 50 percent “reciprocal” tariffs.

Let me just remind everyone the ongoing failure to recognize or accept President Trump’s position regarding both the EU and Canadian trade position with the U.S. will be their undoing.  For whatever reason, likely because it has always been thus for them, they both have a massive cognitive disconnect.

EU trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic is going to try and avoid the baseline tariffs; however, the aggregate EU now accepts after reviewing the details of the U.S-UK trade agreement, they will not be able to get below 10%.  This alone has them considerably triggered.

The only real tariff positions the EU have to try and escape are the auto tariffs (25%) and Steel/Aluminum (50%).  There is no way for them to avoid the baseline 10% on everything.   Keep in mind President Trump will add a tariff surcharge for Spain’s refusal to meet their NATO obligations.  Trump cannot single out Spain, so the entire EU will be punished with the surcharge for not bringing them into line.

BRUSSELS — The outline of a trade deal between the EU and the U.S. is taking shape. It would contain a baseline 10 percent U.S. tariff, relief for specific industries and an “up-front” U.S. commitment to tariff relief, four diplomats told POLITICO.

[…] Brussels is pushing to secure a U.S. commitment to “up-front” tariff relief at the time of the agreement in principle, according to the diplomats. This would resemble a deal already struck by the U.K. with Washington, which offered tariff exemptions on auto and steel exports while talks on a comprehensive deal continue. A number of EU countries told the Commission no deal of any kind would be possible without such relief.

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CTH has continually said that almost no one in Canada has any grasp of what is about to happen within their economy, specifically because only a handful of people realize what President Trump intends to do.

This interview with Kevin O’Leary is a case study in what I have been warning about.  If you have any financial affiliation with O’Leary Ventures or ancillary investments that touch on a dependency therein, be forewarned.

O’Leary is only a few months away from exploding against President Trump in a manner that will make the Elon Musk statements about Epstein and Trump seem small by comparison.  As yet another Canadian financial voice that just doesn’t get it, O’Leary has no idea the USMCA is about to end. And when it does, oh boy… he will go bananas.

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