Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, another deliberate and happy warrior, appears on Face the Nation to deconstruct the narratives presented by NBC and Kirsten Welker.

Starting with the Mexico and Canada tariff issues, Welker incorrectly frames the current issue around economics. Secretary Lutnick presents the issue of the current Mex/Can confrontation for what President Trump has prioritized, the issue of illegal fentanyl smuggling across the border.

100,000+ Americans are killed each year with the intentional and purposeful transportation of Chinese drugs through the U.S. southern border of Mexico and the U.S northern border with Canada.  Both nations could, if they wanted, crack down on the illegal and dangerous drug trade; neither has prioritized the problem. Again, 100,000+ Americans are killed each year.  Think about it.  WATCH: 

“This is the way you run the country,” Lutnick said on NBC News’s “Meet the Press” with Kristen Welker. “You shut the border. You get our neighbors to do their job. It’s not only us who has to do their job. Why are our neighbors, who live and breathe off our economy, not taking care of America?”

“You have to remember this is a drug-related issue,” Lutnick said. “You’ve got fentanyl pouring into this country, killing 75,000 Americans, autopsied. And the president, you know, thinks it’s many, many more, multiples more.”

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Things in South Texas look a little sketchy.  A Texas rancher was killed by an Improvised Explosive Device, and the warning from the Texas AG Commissioner is stark:

[SOURCE]

Meanwhile Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is proposing changes to the Mexican constitution in order to protect the Cartels from the designation as terrorists by the United States.

MEXICO CITY — Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum said Thursday she will propose constitutional reforms aimed at protecting Mexico’s sovereignty after U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration designated six Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations.

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A notice in the federal register [SEE HERE] scheduled to be published on February 20, 2025, outlines how the U.S. State Department under Marco Rubio intends to designate Tren de Aragua, the Sinaloa Cartel and MS13 as Foreign Terrorist Organizations.

In combination with enhanced actions by the Dept of Homeland Security, Customs and Border Patrol and the U.S. Treasury Dept., the designation opens up a lot of authority for the U.S. government to target not only the gangs, but any entity or enterprise who supports their activity; including the government of Mexico.

WASHINGTON – […] This designation allows the U.S. to impose financial sanctions on these groups and people connected to them, and cooperate with allies to cull cartels. It also allows the U.S. to declare members of these groups as “inadmissible” to the country and ineligible for immigration benefits.

It’s not immediately clear how far these sanctions might go — or who they may target. The State Department did not respond to a request for comment.

The move follows President Donald Trump’s latest efforts to crack down on cartels. On Jan. 20, Trump signed an executive order that established a pipeline for cartels and other international groups that “constitute[d] a national security threat beyond that posed by traditional organized crime” to be labeled as global terrorists.

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Both Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum have agreed to terms established by President Trump to combat drug trafficking and secure their perspective borders.

Mexico agrees to put 10,000 troops on the USA border to immediately begin security efforts. Canada agrees to bolster their 10,000-border patrol and security officers, establish a joint task force to combat organized crime, create a new intelligence directive on organized crime and fentanyl, and appoint a Fentanyl Czar.

[Source]

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio is traveling through Panama, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Guatemala and the Dominican Republic as he represents President Trump and the new administration.  He’s doing great.

Today, Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered remarks to reporters in El Salvador discussing his role as Acting Director of USAID after President Trump and Elon Musk moved to incorporate USAID into the State Department.  Secretary Rubio repeated that USAID must align with U.S. foreign policy and the national interests of the U.S. government.

Citing the “uncooperative” nature of the USAID leadership acting as an independent entity, Secretary Rubio announced he is now Acting Director of USAID with the intention of removing all elements who operate against the direct U.S. interests he outlined.  Additionally, Secretary Rubio affirmed the positive nature of President Trump’s call with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum [Details soon]. WATCH:

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WASHINGTON, Feb 2 (Reuters) – The Trump administration over the weekend put on administrative leave dozens more staff at U.S. Agency for International Development, three sources familiar with the move said, as it moves to abolish the agency’s independence and bring it under the control of the State Department.

Nearly 30 career staff in the agency’s Legislative and Public Affairs bureau lost access overnight to their emails, the sources said, bringing the total number of senior USAID career staff who have been put on leave over the past week close to 100.

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Knowing the severe ramifications likely and taking a proactive approach toward root-cause analysis, CTH attended the ASEAN summit to gauge how Asia was likely to respond to Trump term-2 and the looming possibility of a severe nationalist approach toward a renewal of USA manufacturing. The untangling of the Beijing Belt & Road initiative was a key topic of interest noted.  [Watch Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines.]

Secretary of State Marco Rubio traveled to Panama this weekend to express the position of President Donald Trump as it pertains to Chinese influence over the maritime transit gateway known as the Panama Canal. Following the meeting with President José Raúl Mulino, the government of Panama has announced they will no longer support China’s Belt & Road initiative.

Photographic message received; or the one-time Rubio needed to be shorter, you decide.

STATE DEPT – Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino and Foreign Minister Javier Martínez-Acha today in Panama City to address critical regional and global challenges. Secretary Rubio informed President Mulino and Minister Martínez-Acha that President Trump has made a preliminary determination that the current position of influence and control of the Chinese Communist Party over the Panama Canal area is a threat to the canal and represents a violation of the Treaty Concerning the Permanent Neutrality and Operation of the Panama Canal. Secretary Rubio made clear that this status quo is unacceptable and that absent immediate changes, it would require the United States to take measures necessary to protect its rights under the Treaty.

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In December of 2016 when we discussed the possibility of President Trump’s then new and unique tariff approach, we predicted negligible impact – if any at all.  It was a theory at the time, but predicated on the looming possibility that impacted nations would inevitably devalue their currency. It was the currency devaluation, in combination with directed subsidies, that would offset any tariff impact to U.S. consumers.

By the time we got to December 2019, we were no longer discussing theory.  Deflation due to currency devaluation, subsidy and a rising dollar actually became reality.  The lookback data (2017 through 2019) proved the tariffs did not raise prices. In fact, the opposite happened, we were importing broad-based deflation.

Now it’s 2025 and again China is hit with tariffs, along with Canada and Mexico.  With history as a reference, watch the Canadian Dollar and the Mexican Peso.  Initial impact shows the same thing repeating again. The U.S. dollar is rising in value, and the Canadian dollar is dropping quickly.

If this trend holds, the 25% tariffs against Canada (and Mexico) will have minimal impact, if any at all.  The lowered value Canadian dollar and Mexican peso will work as an offset and imports will be paid with higher value dollars.  Depending on the scale of what happens in the next few weeks, there is a strong possibility Canada might have just walked into a trap set by Trump.

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President Trump’s Border Czar, Tom Homan, appears on Fox News Sunday to talk about the massive drop (-93%) in attempted border crossers and the success of the current deportation operation.  Homan also outlines the intended use of Guantanamo Bay for the “worst of the worst” detainees as a matter of efficiency and expediency.

Then at the 4:48 point of the interview, a bombshell.  Tom Homan responding to a question about the cartels setting up positions inside the USA for drug and sex trafficking offices, says “I’ve gotta be careful.. {pause} ..let me just say, we’re involved”….  WATCH:

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Remember when President Trump established the “External Revenue Service?” … It’s all connected and sequential.

Almost everyone will miss, in part because outcomes appear in a sequence that few care to follow, but buried in the Trump tariff Executive Order {SEE HERE} you will discover something.  As the unofficial Deep State strategist, and the self-appointed misfit explainer of stuff, lol, we will explain:

[Sec 2, SubSection (h)]: Sec. 2. (a) All articles that are products of Canada as defined by the Federal Register notice described in subsection (e) of this section (Federal Register notice), and except for those products described in subsection (b) of this section, shall be, consistent with law, subject to an additional 25 percent ad valorem rate of duty. Such rate of duty shall apply with respect to goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern time on February 4, 2025, except that goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, after such time that were loaded onto a vessel at the port of loading or in transit on the final mode of transport prior to entry into the United States before 12:01 a.m. eastern time on February 1, 2025, shall not be subject to such additional duty, only if the importer certifies to CBP as specified in the Federal Register notice.

[…] (h) For avoidance of doubt, duty-free de minimis treatment under 19 U.S.C. 1321 shall not be available for the articles described in subsection (a) and subsection (b) of this section. {link}

So, Canada and Mexico get 25% tariffs, but China only 10%.  Why?  The secret is in that subsection “(h)” when it talks about de minimis treatment. Essentially, what President Trump is doing is levying a much more massive import tax, and possible confiscation impact on the core source of fentanyl (and other illegal) substances.

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President Trump has triggered punitive tariffs against Canada, Mexico and China for their role in the manufacture and delivery of fentanyl into the United States while disregarding their responsibility to secure the U.S. border.

In response, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced responsive tariffs against American goods.  However, the responsive tariffs are primarily the products that Canada has exploited through the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) loophole.

[SOURCE]

It is obvious Canada’s response is in consultation with the U.S. democrats, as is the customary norm for the Trudeau administration.

(Politico) – Canada’s prime minister, Justin Trudeau, on Saturday night made a televised address announcing concrete measures including a tit-for-tat 25% tariff phased in across C$155bn ($107bn) worth of American products. Trudeau said Trump had put at risk US consumers’ and industries’ access to much-needed Canadian critical minerals and resources including oil, energy and timber. The prime minister promised to work with Canada’s provinces to review dealings with the United States.

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