Mid-August CTH noted, “amid all of the headline warnings about inflation and prices of essential products, CTH notes that if we are to continue waiting about six months, we would see a massive backlog of unsold goods and as a consequence the prices of non-essential durable goods would begin a rapid decline.  That exact scenario is about to unfold.” {link}

Today the world’s second largest appliance manufacturer, Electrolux, announced a collapse of corporate earnings -the result of the western alliance economic contraction- leading to major cost cutting and future incentive programs.  [Announcement Link, emphasis mine]

(Electrolux) – […] Market demand for core appliances in Europe and the US so far in the third quarter is estimated to have decreased at a significantly accelerated pace compared with the second quarter, driven by the impact of high inflation on consumer durables purchases and low consumer confidence. High retailer inventory levels have amplified the impact of the slowdown in consumer demand.

In combination with supply chain imbalances resulting in significant production inefficiencies and increased costs, the third quarter earnings for the Group are expected to decline significantly compared to the second quarter 2022 also excluding the one-time cost to exit the Russia market. This has been driven mainly by Europe and North America. Business Area North America is expected to report an operating loss in the third quarter exceeding the loss in the second quarter.

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It is good to see at least one energy finance analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, speaking commonsense.  In an article by Clark Williams-Derry for Barron Magazine [SEE HERE], the author accurately outlines how significant U.S. Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) exports are driving up natural gas prices for American consumers.

The author accurately refutes the notion that exports do not drive-up domestic prices, by walking through the example of how natural gas prices dropped for U.S. consumers when the liquefied natural gas plant in Quintana, Texas [Freeport LNG] was temporarily shut down, blocking a portion of the export capacity.  However, that facility is about to come back on-line and with increased exports from other facilities domestic U.S. prices have already doubled.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Association (IEA), U.S. storage of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) is 12% below the five-year average (LINK).  Additionally, the IEA is expecting the U.S. to export 11.7 billion cubic feet of LNG per day during the fourth quarter of 2022 — up 17% from the third quarter. The destination of that export is Europe.

Consider that 43% of U.S. households use natural gas for home heating, and power suppliers use natural gas to create electricity.  With the massive 2022 exports of LNG to Europe (+17% in fourth quarter alone), that means lower domestic supplies and increased prices here in the United States for electricity and home heating.  We are seeing and feeling these massive price increases right now.

Barrons – […]  If you need more evidence of the impact of natural gas exports on prices, just compare supply and demand fundamentals for the year leading up to February 2020 (the last pre-pandemic month) versus the year leading up to this May (the most recent month with full federal data). Annualized production rose over the period, while domestic consumption remained roughly flat. Yet LNG exports almost doubled—a surge that tightened U.S. gas markets and doubled the price that U.S. consumers pay for the fuel. 

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There is a particular historical irony in the timing.  On the same day King Charles III ascends the throne, previously Europe’s most isolated from consequence – yet loudest voice in chasing the catastrophic climate change energy policies, the British government is forced to reverse course on years of energy regulations and restrictions.

Britain’s new Prime Minister Liz Truss announced, “a new round of oil and gas licensing will come next week with more than 100 licenses issued. A moratorium on fracking will be lifted and planning permission can be sought where there is local support,” in an urgent emergency effort to lower energy costs for British citizens.

The move comes in combination with a government plan to help citizens and businesses cope with skyrocketing prices for electricity and home heating fuel.  The climate change chickens have come home to roost throughout Europe and the British government is urgently trying to head-off the calamitous consequences.

Inside the media announcements of the Truss plan, the biggest concern expressed is how the financial and multinational banking sector (the ESG investment groups) will respond to the government position. After decades of ideological “green” outlooks flowing into the energy industry, the biggest concern expressed in the financial analysis is how a reversal by such a large economic system will reverberate.

The climate change ideology has a stranglehold on the energy sector of the economy, this move by Great Britain would be the most significant push-back in decades.  The minority green activists are apoplectic that they may lose control over the majority of opinion.  The economics of a reversal in energy policy could reverberate throughout the western alliance, particularly in Europe.  It will be interesting to see whether this shift in U.K. policy has ripple effects in the U.S.

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War is an outcome of ideology and economics, and the latter is perhaps the most powerful weapon.  As the harsh reality of Europe’s insufferable decades-long efforts to embrace the virtues of climate change begin to settle in, the reasonable adults in the conversation are able to see how their weakness is being exploited by their adversary.

On Sept 7, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen held a press conference in Brussels, announcing five initiatives to contain the expensive EU energy crisis: “The goal is clear. We must cut the revenues of Russia that Putin uses to finance this atrocious war against Ukraine.” {Go Deep}

However, Russian President Vladimir Putin made it very clear that any further efforts to weaken his economy, via western sanctions and interventionist efforts against his economy, would be met with retaliation in the form of cutting off all oil and gas supplies to Europe.  It appears the Europeans now understand the nature of their vulnerability.

(Via Reuters) – The EU has dropped plans to cap the price it pays for Russian gas.

Energy ministers from the bloc met Friday (September 9) in Brussels. They scrapped plans for the cap after the idea failed to win broad support.

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Energy inflation continues to pummel all western nations as they chase the climate change agenda. Today, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates to support the goal of lowered economic activity.   Lowering economic activity lowers energy use.

Absent of any desire to raise energy supply and/or energy production, monetary policy can support the goal of lowering energy use by driving down all economic activity.

In the big transition picture, the economies within the western alliance must be reduced until they match the energy output of windmills and solar farms.

FRANKFURT—The European Central Bank raised interest rates by the largest amount since the early days of Europe’s currency union, moving aggressively to combat record inflation even as an energy crisis puts Europe on the brink of recession.

The bank said in a statement that it would increase its key rate to 0.75% from zero—its second hike this year following a 50-basis-point rise in July—and signaled that further rises were likely over the coming months.

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According to the U.S. Energy Information Association (IEA), U.S. storage of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) is 12% below the five-year average (LINK).  Additionally, the IEA is expecting the U.S. to export 11.7 billion cubic feet of LNG per day during the fourth quarter of 2022 — up 17% from the third quarter. The destination of that export is Europe.

Consider that 43% of U.S. households use LNG for home heating, and power suppliers use LNG to create electricity.  With the massive 2022 exports of LNG to Europe (+17% in fourth quarter alone), that means lower domestic supplies and increased prices here in the United States for electricity and home heating.  We are seeing and feeling these massive price increases right now. As a result, consider this reality….

Not only are U.S. taxpayers directly paying for the majority of costs in Ukraine, but we are also subsidizing the European Union by exporting LNG and driving up the price here at home.

We are directly paying Ukraine, and indirectly paying Europe to maintain gas sanctions against Russia.  This is the reality of the current situation as created by the Biden administration.

Now, consider this.  The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen held a press conference in Brussels today, announcing five initiatives to contain the expensive EU energy crisis: “The goal is clear. We must cut the revenues of Russia that Putin uses to finance this atrocious war against Ukraine. And now our work is paying off. At the start of the war, gas from Russian pipelines accounted for 40% of all imported gas. Today it has dropped to only 9% of our gas imports. These are tough times. But I am convinced that Europeans have the economic strength, the political will and the unity to maintain the upper hand,” she said.  The United States and Norway are the primary suppliers of gas to the EU to fill the void.

Commissar von der Leyden’s five initiatives include:

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German Minister of Economics Robert Habeck is under fire after his comments during an interview with an ARD broadcaster on Tuesday evening.

The conversation surrounded the astronomical rise in the price of energy taking all the income away from people who would purchase other goods and services. As Germans no longer can afford purchases, the stores and businesses can no longer operate.  Minister Habeck was asked if that means a wave of bankruptcies and business closures are forecast.

Mr. Habeck responded that businesses can stop operating, but that doesn’t mean they will go insolvent.  Just because the business loses most or all of their revenue, doesn’t mean they will go bankrupt.  That doesn’t make sense, Minister Habeck was pressed to apply commonsense. If businesses close to save money, workers are not employed. If workers are not employed people do not earn income.  If people do not earn income, the economy worsens.

Habeck had no response other than an economically detached “Green Party” perspective that businesses will not go bankrupt just because they are not operating. However, his facial expressions reflect that he knows what comes next, total economic collapse. WATCH: 

https://youtu.be/x8bGPxZfIdQ

(Reuters) – German Economy Minister Robert Habeck faced a backlash on Wednesday for saying he could imagine parts of the economy stopping production due to rising energy prices that German firms say are threatening their existence.

Asked whether he expected a wave of insolvencies at the end of this winter due to companies’ rising energy bills, Habeck said “No, I don’t. I can imagine that certain industries will simply stop producing for the time being.”

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On one hand losing the ability to manufacture aluminum is bad news for any economic activity that requires the use of aluminum.  However, on the other hand, this politically guided ‘new world’ we are going toward doesn’t need aluminum, because you cannot eat it.

Predictably 2023 is going to be the beginning of several ‘Build Back Better’ decades where the ownership of material things disappears.  When your wages are focused on sustaining yourself with housing, food and energy, all of those other purchases become mere indulgences.

Sustainable life in equity with the needs of the planet, means returning to the era when you received an orange or a piece of chocolate as a Christmas gift, and you are thankful. Cars, appliances, phones or other types of luxury durable goods are indulgences which become out of reach for the worker class.  Thus, removing smelters, iron works, factories and other heavy industrial machines only makes sense.

As meager wage earnings are focused on purchases to sustain life, there is little room for indulgences.  As the World Economic Forum has stated, we will own nothing and we will be happy.  Happiness experiences will be provided and the virtual metaverse will fill our needs.

LONDON, Sept 1 (Reuters) – Two more European aluminium smelters are powering down as the region’s energy crisis shows no signs of abating.

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What is predicted to happen in Europe is just stunning, literally stunning.

♦Context – According to official data from the World Bank, the combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the European Union was just over $17 trillion US dollars in 2021. That is the last calculated measure.  The combined GDP value of European Union represents roughly 12.78 percent of the world economy.

According to analysts for Goldman Sachs, the current energy crisis in Europe has increased electricity prices at a rate that is increasing almost daily.  Within the data it is now estimated that households within the EU will pay an additional $2 trillion for electricity in the next year.

Put that $2 trillion into context with their GDP, and that scale of energy cost would be wiping out 12% of the purchasing strength within the total EU economy.  Forget about buying anything else, if this analysis is correct Europeans will be buying food and energy, nothing else.

If you consider what that means, it is bordering on full economic collapse of western Europe.

What is being described above is what we posited when we outlined the impact of the “Energy Economy” {Go Deep}.  When you suck 12% of the purchasing power out of an economic engine simply to maintain the status of current energy use, everything else starts to collapse.

Also keep in mind we are only talking about the direct impact of $2 trillion in electricity cost.  The downstream consequence is far greater because everything created, produced, or manufactured, including food, is dependent on electricity – which will drive the final cost to produce of all those products even higher.

The damage is almost unimaginable in scale.

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Well, it looks like it’s official now. After several days of sporadic reporting on Russia’s decision to shut down the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline into western Europe, it looks like the valves have been shut down until EU sanctions against Russia are removed.

Strategically the Nord Stream 1 pipeline is the major gas supply route into Germany, Europe’s largest economy. As noted by Reuters, “European gas prices, as measured by the benchmark Dutch TTF October gas contract, rose by as much as 30% on Sept. 5, amid growing fears of a total shutdown of Russian pipeline imports ahead of the European winter.”

Europe was already going into a deep economic recession due to inflation created by pre-existing green energy policy.  The Nord Stream shutdown will make things exponentially worse as energy prices skyrocket.  The Russian owned energy company Gasprom sent out a video that can be best described as psychological warfare.  WATCH:

https://youtu.be/n2b_0gfV_4E

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