A few datapoints to keep on a post-it note as things progress; starting with a rather significant new release that I think you will find interesting.

Approximately 12.3 million Mexicans live abroad, both legally and illegally, with 97% of them living and working in the United States, according to BBVA Research.  Last year Mexicans living abroad sent $64.75 billion back home in remittances, largely from Texas and California to states in central and western Mexico.

According to data just released, in April of this year remittances back to Mexico dropped 12.1%.  The Mexico central bank said April saw 8.1% fewer transactions than a year earlier, that’s down to 12.4 million transactions. For Mexico this could be a devastating trend.  [Sidenote: Remember, Trump is likely planning a complete overhaul of the USMCA later this year.]

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) -Remittances sent to Mexico slumped 12.1% in April compared to a year earlier, according to central bank data published on Monday, marking the steepest drop in over a decade as U.S. lawmakers mull a tax on such payments sent abroad.

The world’s second-largest recipient of remittances, Mexico receives these payments chiefly from migrants working in the neighboring United States. In April, Mexicans abroad sent fewer transactions and smaller payments, totaling $4.76 billion.

Analysts said the slump likely resulted from a broad crackdown on migration in the U.S. since President Donald Trump came to power in January, as authorities revoke some Biden-era protections and increase raids across the country.

The latest data marks the steepest year-on-year drop since September 2012, according to central bank data.

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If we cut through all the polite pretending, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick appears on Fox News to tell the bobble head the nation specific tariffs are going to hit regardless of what approaches need to be taken.  President Trump is going to remain focused on structural changes to the global economic system of trade, manufacturing and USA commerce despite all of the grandiose efforts of the multinationals and their Lawfare foot soldiers.

As Lutnick again repeats, there are a variety of legal mechanisms that can be used to enforce the tariff program triggered by President Trump.  Adhering to them is not optional for trade partners who wish to have access to the USA market.  If the exporting nation wants to play games, try and delay or delay tactics, the end result will be even more against their interests.  There is no alternative other than to acquiesce.  WATCH:

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is going to find this out on Thursday when he shows up in full Blackrock mode and only creates a worse scenario for himself and the EU Commission he represents.  If Merz wants ‘ugly’, no problem – President Trump has an endless supply of big ugly tools.

FA-FO!

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Next week on Thursday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is scheduled to travel to Washington DC and meet with President Donald Trump in the White House.  Considering the importance of Germany to the EU economy and subsequent trade relationship with the U.S, this meeting with Merz will likely be the most important discussion toward a possible U.S-E.U. trade agreement.

Germany is the largest economy within the EU and the core industrial base of the European Union.  The number one issue for the German people is their economic status: everything else circles around this priority.

Having spent time in Hamburg, Bremen, Dresden and Frankfurt, it is very clear to me the German people are very focused on work and their vocations. Germans overall, take their economic standing very personally and seriously.

Inasmuch as Merz may have to represent the interests of the larger EU in his approach, he will undoubtedly be focused on what is in Germany’s best interest, with all else second.

For President Trump this specific German interest creates a unique facet of leverage within the larger EU trade discussion.  Because the German economy is so vital, whatever terms Germany decides are the core terms the EU will manifest in their trade and tariff negotiations.

I predict we will hear a talking point from Merz, in generally German snark, something akin to a proposal for a zero-tariff base on the import and export of heavy industrial goods (machinery) for both Germany and the USA.  I say in general German snark because passive-aggressive Chancellor Merz knows the U.S. is currently not in a position to sell Germany heavy industrial goods, and that’s entirely what President Trump is trying to recreate with the trade/tariff policy.

WASHINGTON DC – German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will travel to Washington next week to meet United States President Donald Trump for the first time since taking office earlier this month.

The leaders will meet in the White House on Thursday and are expected to discuss the war in Ukraine, the Middle East and trade policy, German government spokesperson Stefan Kornelius said in an emailed statement.

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Self-interested Wall Street analysts and leftist economic ‘experts’ once again proven wrong.  It is almost impossible to find any financial data review written objectively by media.  Everything is skewed with a negative tone, yet the data clearly shows -just like 2017- President Trump’s MAGAnomic policy benefits are starting to surface.

News pundits said President Trump’s tariff policies would skyrocket prices.  In reality the yearly inflation rate [BLS data] has dropped to 2.1%, the lowest in four years.  Core prices (removing food and energy) rose 2.5% from a year earlier, below the March figure of 2.7%, and the lowest in more than four years.

Meanwhile personal incomes tripled expectations coming in at 0.8% for the month of April. “Personal income surged 0.8% well ahead of the forecast for 0.3%.”  Then comes the predictable.  The trade deficit dropped by 46% in the month of April.

[…] The goods trade gap contracted 46.0% to $87.6 billion last month, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said on Friday. Goods imports decreased $68.4 billion to $276.1 billion. Exports of goods increased $6.3 billion to $188.5 billion. (source)

Companies front-loaded their orders from China in February and March, causing imports to skyrocket and a massive skew in the GDP data.  As expected in April there are fewer orders because the goods were already received in the first quarter, imports drop in half.

Despite increased tariffs we are likely to see a replay of pricing parity similar to 2017 as companies benefit from lowered energy prices, lower fuel costs, lower Transporation and lower warehousing costs.  Simultaneously, export companies who rely on access to the U.S. market will attempt to offset any tariff price as applied. Those combined savings can, likely will, offset increased tariffs on arriving goods.

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Not surprisingly, it appears the Chinese trade delegation that previously made commitments in Geneva, Switzerland, were wearing a panda mask at the time of the negotiations with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

According to a Truth Social post shared by President Trump, the panda mask was recently removed and the true Beijing dragon behind it appeared. This is not a shock to anyone who has followed the dynamic of Chinese trade promises and practices for a while.

PRESIDENT TRUMP – “Two weeks ago China was in grave economic danger! The very high Tariffs I set made it virtually impossible for China to TRADE into the United States marketplace which is, by far, number one in the World. We went, in effect, COLD TURKEY with China, and it was devastating for them. Many factories closed and there was, to put it mildly, “civil unrest.” I saw what was happening and didn’t like it, for them, not for us. I made a FAST DEAL with China in order to save them from what I thought was going to be a very bad situation, and I didn’t want to see that happen. Because of this deal, everything quickly stabilized, and China got back to business as usual. Everybody was happy! That is the good news!!! The bad news is that China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!”

China was moving slowly on promises to issue export licenses for rare earths minerals. The Geneva deal called for China to lift trade countermeasures that restrict its exports of the critical metals needed for U.S. semiconductor, electronics and defense production.

“The Chinese are slow-rolling their compliance, which is completely unacceptable, and it has to be addressed,” U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told CNBC, without specifying how that would happen.

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Previously, President Trump announced: “I am proud to announce that, after much consideration and negotiation, US Steel will REMAIN in America, and keep its Headquarters in the Great City of Pittsburgh. For many years, the name, “United States Steel” was synonymous with Greatness, and now, it will be again. This will be a planned partnership between United States Steel and Nippon Steel, which will create at least 70,000 jobs, and add $14 Billion Dollars to the U.S. Economy. The bulk of that Investment will occur in the next 14 months.

This is the largest Investment in the History of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. My Tariff Policies will ensure that Steel will once again be, forever, MADE IN AMERICA. From Pennsylvania to Arkansas, and from Minnesota to Indiana, AMERICAN MADE is BACK. I will see you all at US Steel, in Pittsburgh, on Friday, May 30th, for a BIG Rally. CONGRATULATIONS TO ALL!”

The event to celebrate the deal between US Steel and Nippon takes place today in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.  The anticipated start time is 5:30pm, with livestream links below:

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The President of the United States, representing the executive branch, takes aggressive emergency action on tariffs and trade to protect American fiscal sovereignty and solvency.  Both chambers of the U.S. congress, the house and senate representing the Legislative branch, affirm the action through legislative support.  Yet, a single court in the judicial branch intervenes on behalf of multinational corporate interests to block trade policy.

That is the framework of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s main point in a discussion with Fox News Bret Baier.  WATCH:

On the DOGE issue, listen to how a well-versed professional executive with years of experience in institutional reform discusses taking the DOGE team effort and integrating them into his massive agency as part of an operational efficiency overhaul.

Compare Secretary Bessent’s approach to other cabinet officials who have yet to grasp and execute the efficiency model that has been handed to them by the DOGE effort.  The contrast is remarkable.

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Pushed far enough, decisions are reached.

[VIA TRUTH SOCIAL] “The U.S. Court of International Trade incredibly ruled against the United States of America on desperately needed Tariffs but, fortunately, the full 11 Judge Panel on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit Court has just stayed the order by the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade. Where do these initial three Judges come from? How is it possible for them to have potentially done such damage to the United States of America? Is it purely a hatred of “TRUMP?” What other reason could it be?

I was new to Washington, and it was suggested that I use The Federalist Society as a recommending source on Judges. I did so, openly and freely, but then realized that they were under the thumb of a real “sleazebag” named Leonard Leo, a bad person who, in his own way, probably hates America, and obviously has his own separate ambitions. He openly brags how he controls Judges, and even Justices of the United States Supreme Court — I hope that is not so, and don’t believe it is! In any event, Leo left The Federalist Society to do his own “thing.” I am so disappointed in The Federalist Society because of the bad advice they gave me on numerous Judicial Nominations. This is something that cannot be forgotten!

With all of that being said, I am very proud of many of our picks, but very disappointed in others. They always must do what’s right for the Country! In this case, it is only because of my successful use of Tariffs that many Trillions of Dollars have already begun pouring into the U.S.A. from other Countries, money that, without these Tariffs, we would not be able to get. It is the difference between having a rich, prosperous, and successful United States of America, and quite the opposite.

The ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade is so wrong, and so political! Hopefully, the Supreme Court will reverse this horrible, Country threatening decision, QUICKLY and DECISIVELY. Backroom “hustlers” must not be allowed to destroy our Nation!

The horrific decision stated that I would have to get the approval of Congress for these Tariffs. In other words, hundreds of politicians would sit around D.C. for weeks, and even months, trying to come to a conclusion as to what to charge other Countries that are treating us unfairly. If allowed to stand, this would completely destroy Presidential Power — The Presidency would never be the same!

This decision is being hailed all over the World by every Country, other than the United States of America. Radical Left Judges, together with some very bad people, are destroying America. Under this decision, Trillions of Dollars would be lost by our Country, money that will, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN. It would be the harshest financial ruling ever leveled on us as a Sovereign Nation. The President of the United States must be allowed to protect America against those that are doing it Economic and Financial harm.

Thank you for your attention to this matter!” (source)

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The current Canadian Prime Minister is genuinely a walking meme of a Canadian Prime Minister parody.

During his remarks to parliament today, Prime Minister Carney waxed gleefully about the U.S. federal trade court ruling against President Trump’s tariffs, just moments before the federal appeals court stayed the opinion of the lower court.  It’s a little funny.

PM Carney doesn’t seem to recognize the reality of the economic landscape before him.  He complains about blocked access to the U.S. consumer base with a level of entitlement that’s genuinely humorous.  Meanwhile, the Canadian economy around him is collapsing.  WATCH:

♦ BACKGROUND – Following the 2024 presidential election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau traveled to Mar-a-Lago and said if President Trump was to make the Canadian government face reciprocal tariffs, open the USMCA trade agreements to force reciprocity, and/or balance economic relations on non-tariff issues, then Canada would collapse upon itself economically and cease to exist.  In essence, in addition to the NATO defense shortfall, Canada cannot survive as a free and independent north American nation, without receiving all the one-way benefits from the U.S. economy.

To wit, President Trump then said, if Canada cannot survive in a balanced rules environment, including putting together their own military and defenses and meeting their NATO obligations, then Canada should become the 51st U.S state.  It was following this meeting that President Trump started emphasizing this point and shocking everyone in the process.  However, in the emotional reaction to Trump’s statements, no-one looked at the core issues outlined by Trudeau that framed President Trump’s opinion.

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Shortly before the federal appeals court decision to stay the lower court intervention, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett appeared on Fox Business with Maria Bartiromo to discuss the frustrating trade court decision and the pending legislation on budgets and taxes.

Director Hassett is always a solid analytical mind to follow because his job is to look into the future and see if current alignment of economic policy retains the objective of economic growth, and he does it well.  Within the interview a key point made by Hassett on the trade/tariff conflict with the court is that USTR Jamieson Greer has multiple legal pathways to support the intent of the tariffs as applied.

This is a point CTH will continue to make; both the USTR and the Dept of Commerce Secretary have alternate legal trade tools that support the tariffs.  The bottom line is that whether IEEPA is used or Sec.301/302 are used the tariff outcome remains the same, the only difference is the amount of time for the countervailing duty to trigger; put another way, ‘optimal solutions.’  WATCH:

Despite the noise and media drumbeat, Kevin Hassett continues to carry the maganomic agenda forward with a smile.  He is able to do this because all of the economic policy is grounded in America-first realism.  It can be achieved, and it will be achieved, entirely because it is achievable. Remember that!

When you reach frustration, ask yourself, “is there bread in the kitchen?”  If yes, then focus on solving the immediate non-critical problem; do not allow the dark imaginings to disrupt your focus. It’s the guys like Kevin Hassett who are keeping the bread in the kitchen.

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