An interesting report from Bloomberg following a survey conducted by KPMG of Canadian manufacturers.  Keep in mind this is a survey of companies within Canada that do traditional manufacturing of products; this is not a survey of companies that assemble foreign goods for export – there is a substantial difference.

As noted within the report, approximately 10% of Canadian GDP comes from Canadian manufacturing.  Within that sector there are multiple companies now planning or considering moving out of Canada into the United States.

Many will claim the trigger for the consideration is based on the potential elimination of the USMCA (CUSMA) trade agreement, and there is truth to that aspect.  However, the systemic issues within Canada -including energy policy, regulation and corporate tax burdens- represent the larger problem; the termination of the USMCA is the straw that breaks their back.

The domestic hurdles to manufacturing, are the bigger issues that cannot be negotiated away in U.S-Canada trade agreements.  Specifically, the low-price and stable energy policies are the core consistencies that are no longer present in Canada; that fundamental cannot be easily fixed.

BLOOMBERG – […] KPMG Canada said on Tuesday that 42 per cent of Canadian manufacturing companies indicated they have or are considering moving production to the United States. Of those considering relocating, 77 per cent expect to make the transition within the next two years.

[…] the issues go beyond the trade situation though, with Canada needing to create a competitive environment for manufacturers to grow.

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Both Toyota and Honda had previously warned the Canadian government that without the USMCA they would shift production from Canada to the U.S. to avoid tariffs and secure long-term manufacturing stability.  We presume a similar message was conveyed to Mexico.

Earlier today Toyota announced they were moving half of their Tacoma Truck production from Mexico to an expanded facility in Texas that will now encompass 5 million square feet in San Antonio.

(Bloomberg) — Toyota Motor Corp. is moving production of its popular Tacoma midsize truck from a plant in Mexico to San Antonio as part of a $3.6 billion investment in the Texas facility.

The Japanese carmaker will build a second production line in San Antonio, where it currently makes full-size pickups and SUVs, and add some 2,000 new jobs by 2030, it said Monday.

The shift, following Toyota’s pledge last year to spend $10 billion on its US manufacturing operations over the next decade, comes as talks between the US and Mexico to renew a North American free trade agreement have stalled. President Donald Trump, who has pressed Toyota to invest more in the US, let a July 1 deadline pass without a trade pact extension.

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FACT: It has been over 60-years since Canada purchased a submarine.  FACT: Canada has never built one.  FACT: Currently the Canadian military have ONE operable submarine out of a fleet of four used ones previously purchased. FACT: Canada recently proclaimed themselves as the North American defender of the Arctic.

Now, put all those facts in the overlay of the December 2024 meeting in Mar-a-Lago between President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.  President Trump was demanding that Trudeau increase their NATO spending and develop a working Canadian military.

Someone recently asked in the comments section why I have an issue with Canada, specifically why a new level of distain for our Northern neighbors.  Quite simply, there is a level of lying that exceeds my tongue bite capacity; that level of deceit comes when fabricating lies is accompanied by pretending. The Canadian government is the worst type of political abuser.  They willfully pretend and simultaneously lie to the Canadian people. That’s the answer.

Today, the government of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announce that German industrial shipbuilder TKMS will be awarded a contract for “up to 12 submarines” valued between $20 and $30 billion {source link}.  Now, let’s not pretend.

First, the submarine contract is intended to get Canada back into reasonable position on their NATO obligations.

In reality, it is quite remarkable to think about the Canadian nation with only one currently functional submarine. “Canada hasn’t purchased unused submarines since the 1960s, during the Cold War, and has never ordered anywhere near 12 at once. Canada currently owns four subs, all of which were purchased second-hand, and only one of which is typically operational.” {citation} Now, think about that Mar-a-Lago conversation again.

Second, Canada can’t build their own submarines?

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It’s an unfortunate state of affairs when you cannot review the U.S. media take on the phone call due to the propaganda script that underpins the Western narrative they promote.  Instead, a more direct and reliable review of the important discussion comes from the Russian Federation side.

RUSSIA – […] Of course, today’s conversation between the two heads of state began with President Putin congratulating Donald Trump and the American people on their landmark holiday and recalling Russia’s contribution to the development of American statehood. In this context, the presidents noted the importance of treasuring the historical heritage which our nations share. It was pointed out that our nations will never forget their alliance during World War II.

The United States is widely celebrating Independence Day today. This is being done in style and on a grand scale, as Donald Trump knows how to do it, and our President has mentioned this.

Their conversation, the fourth one this year, was not only formal but also business-like and constructive. The leaders candidly discussed current issues on the bilateral and international agenda. Incidentally, that conversation lasted nearly an hour and a half, or more precisely, 85 minutes.

Naturally, the presidents also talked about a Ukrainian settlement, including in light of Donald Trump’s participation in the upcoming NATO summit in Turkiye on July 7–8.

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The media and Canadian government discussions around the U.S-Canada trade and economic relationship, specifically as they pertain to the USMCA (CUSMA) continue to be fascinating.

As we noted over a year ago, the expressed perception from the Canadian side was remarkably disconnected from the most likely scenario.

The level of entrenched disbelief that the U.S. could completely separate from a trilateral trade deal in favor of a bilateral replacement has been remarkable to watch.

However, for the first time today Canadian media began admitting to themselves the USMCA can technically be terminated within six months; albeit buried at the end of the article.

GLOBAL NEWS – […] “I’m not in a position to guarantee anything. These decisions are made at the White House. They are made by the president,” Hoekstra said.

His comments come just days after the Trump administration declined to extend the trilateral pact with Canada and Mexico for a new 16-year term, citing what the U.S. calls “shortcomings” and “trade deficits.” Mexico and Canada both publicly pushed for a renewal.

U.S. President Donald Trump suggested last month that the U.S. is “better without” CUSMA, and that he’d even prefer to see it “terminated.”

When asked by Global News, Hoekstra would not say if the administration is considering ripping up the deal, which can be done by any party with six months’ formal notice. 

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Susan Kokinda from the Promethean Action PAC returns to their Lyndon LaRouche roots and describes the American 250th Birthday Celebration through the prism of modern Britain.

…”Kokinda connects the Declaration’s appeal to the Laws of Nature and Nature’s God to economics, quoting Lyndon LaRouche on a state shaping a nation’s relationship to the physical universe. She highlights speeches by Jamieson Greer and Scott Bessent on production over consumption, and J.D. Vance’s call for a Hamiltonian approach grounded in human dignity, linking it to the Declaration’s “pursuit of happiness” over “property.”…  WATCH:

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Amid the Promethean group, Kokinda appears to be the voice with greatest connection to traditional LaRouche thinking.  Her partner, Barbara Boyd, appears to be the more pragmatic end of the LaRouche spectrum, accepting things President Trump does more as they are, without having to pigeon-hole the motive into the narrow LaRouche view.

Meh, but at the end of the day – it’s all just an information buffet.

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This next storyline needs context to understand appropriately what just happened.

In February of this year, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz travelled for the first time in his business and life to China. Merz a lawyer by training, worked in business and corporate life doing mergers and acquisitions (Blackrock), but had never been to China.  Despite his upward climb in German politics, his worldview was always dominated by an internal acceptance that Germany was the industrial heart of the European Union.

Chancellor Merz believed that Germany was unrivaled within industrial manufacturing, particularly in aeronautics and mechanical engineering (auto sector).  So, when Merz went to China -while he held no trade capabilities as an outcome of the EU collective controlling everything- he also had no idea what Chinese industrial capacitary actually looked like.

To say Chancellor Merz was stunned by the advancements in robotics and industrial manufacturing within China would be an understatement.  Merz was shocked not only by the technological capability, but also by the Chinese industrial work ethic and capabilities of the workforce.

Merz returned to Germany and immediately began discussing how Chinese industrial capacity was far beyond anything he previously estimated.  Merz was shook.  His reaction was, essentially, the #1 industrial nation within the EU confronting a reality of years of industrial complacency.  Immediately he began talking about how things in Germany must change; how the German workforce must immediately start to get serious about productivity and production capacity.

That was late February and early March.

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I’ve said it before, U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra is the most underpaid U.S. emissary sent to a hostile nation and constantly surrounded by threats, bitterness, anger and hatred.

It would be easier to be U.S. ambassador to North Korea.

There is so much nuance inside this interview, it is remarkable.

Ambassador Hoekstra tries in his best diplomatic form to tell the two Canadians Michael LeBlanc and Dr. Sylvain Charlebois about the underlying nature of the U.S-Canada trade conflicts.  However, in typical Canadian fashion both indoctrinated interviewers are curiously stumped by the points Hoekstra presents.  I am prompting this one because you also need to see the body/facial language. WATCH:

[SIDENOTE: The Canadians needed to turn off the comments on YouTube because Canadians are angry, bitter, abusive, vulgar and nasty in every comment section on the subject of U.S-Canada relations.]

Canada’s greatest strategic weakness is what Canadians call their greatest strength, pride.

There is a big difference between being proud and being prideful. The Canadian worldview is based on the latter.

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Appealing almost entirely to an audience that doesn’t recognize the issues that really matter, Fox News has the opportunity to discuss U.S. trade policy with Jamieson Greer yet flubs the entire interview.

Instead of asking about the USMCA withdrawal announcement and the ongoing trade discussions with Mexico, the Fox News pundits misdirect Greer’s expertise and ask questions about the jobs report, the Federal Reserve and the Democrat Socialists of America in elections.  Seriously, no joke.

When serious people remark that Fox News is nothing except propaganda for out of touch ‘boomers’ (a pejorative), this Fox News interview is a case study in why many people now hold that opinion. It’s difficult to argue they’re wrong.

That said, within the one minute where trade was actually discussed, USTR Jamieson Greer points out that many Democrats and many Republicans are completely in favor of eliminating the USTR and resetting the baseline of North American trade.  This is a key point, because within the economic policy issues the left-right dynamic should not be the prism that matters.  Remember, MAGA and the Bernie Bros agreed on 80% of the economic problem. WATCH:

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U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has made it official.  Delivering an official statement today following a discussion between the United States, Mexico and Canada, USTR Jamieson Greer informed the group the USA will not be renewing the USMCA trilateral trade agreement. [SOURCE]

[SOURCE]

Unfortunately, yet predictably given how much false information has been pushed on this issue, the Canadian team will now believe they have a period of ten consecutive years of negotiation before the trade deal is over.  This is structurally and completely false.  The Canadian media will likely continue selling this false hope.

In reality, with the non-renewal announcement now made, President Trump and USTR Greer can now complete the bilateral trade discussions with Mexico (noted in the announcement) and then move to stage two.

Stage two will be the United States announcing a complete withdrawal from the USMCA, which triggers a six-month countdown clock.   The formal notification of withdrawal will likely happen once the U.S. and Mexico complete the bilateral free trade agreement.

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