The snowball effect of cumulative inflation is going to be on display tomorrow when the BLS inflation data from December is released.  We have previously discussed the unavoidable price increases as noted within the November data Here, and within the producer price data Here.

While the data being released tomorrow is backward looking, we are in the eye of the inflation storm right now.  The consumer prices at end of January and through February are all reflecting new purchase order prices and contract prices to wholesalers, buyers and retailers.   As a result, the December reports will be the precursor to what will be much more damaging data in Feb and March.

White House spokesperson Jen Psaki began trying to get ahead of the consumer price release with a short briefing to the traveling press pool earlier today.  A short audio-only soundbite reflects the political problem the White House knows they will soon be dealing with. LISTEN:

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BUMPED by request. Unfortunately, there is a lot of wrong information being discussed and shared.  Even reputable regional media are giving inaccurate information, making wrong interpretations {LINK}, and generally getting the explanations wrong.  Additionally, there’s general misinterpretations of ordinary outages based on the day of the week (Sunday) and bad weather in the Northeast {ex Twitter Thread}.

All of these #BidensEmptyShelves assumptions, which are being heightened by increased attention and social media, are leading to confusion.

An empty retail shelf or case for a 24, 36 to 48-hour period is not, I repeat, NOT, part of a systemic supply chain disruption.  Those are mostly location and regional specific out of stock situations caused by localized events, weather and employee shortages.

What CTH has been describing for the past several months is NOT what is noted above.  What we have been describing is a long term supply chain crisis that will slowly unfold over a period of about a week or two, and then remain a problem over time, for a period of 6+ months. {GO DEEP}

The thirteen bullet points below are the issues we will first notice as the general food supply chain begins to show signs of that type of vulnerability.  This outline explains why it is happening and how long it can be expected.

In the previous October, November and December warnings, we emphasized preparation and counted down the 90-day window.  Now, as we enter the final two weeks before mid/late January, the date of our original prediction, it appears that some media are starting to catch up, and the larger public is starting to notice.

Feel free to note in the comments section what is happening in your area.  Hopefully, most of us are much better positioned than the average person who has not been following this as closely over the past several months.

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I’ll get into a little detail about why this CDC change, if implemented, will only speed up the economic crisis we are about to enter.  [However, don’t share that aspect with anyone other than those closest to you.]  First, the change being discussed…

Surgeon General Vivek Murthy, the husband of a very sketchy Chinese communist party shadow official that no one ever discusses, told CNN today the CDC is likely to revise the quarantine guidance to include a negative test for COVID before exit.

(Via Daily Mail) – The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is expected to further change its recommendations for Americans diagnosed with COVID-19, potentially requiring a negative test to leave isolation before ten days.

Last week, the agency shortened its recommended isolation period from 10 days to five days for people who have minimal Covid symptoms. The move drew criticism from experts who said a negative test should’ve been included.

Surgeon General Dr Vivek Murthy said that the CDC is working to further revise the isolation guidance, telling CNN on Tuesday that he expects a clarification ‘any day now.’

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Comrades, the White House occupant announced today that someone told his wife’s sister about grocery store inflation.  The surprising incident happened when a guest made the comment while visiting over the holidays.

Apparently, there are these places, ‘grocery stores’ he thinks they might be called, where people go to get ingredients for cooking food and stuff.  Mr. Biden shared his surprise upon hearing about the issue.  In a rather remarkable result, Joe Biden now states his administration will begin to focus on what policies might help the types of people who have to go to these food store places.  WATCH: 

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Imagine what might happen if Biden finds out the temperature inside is made different from the temperature outside by something called electricity, oil or gas.

Wait…. nah, never mind…

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Here’s a solid example of what “field to fork” inflation is all about.   Two images shared today point out how the farmland inflation originates, and how the farmland inflation surfaces in your life.

The first image (pictured right) is a current price reference point for crop fertilizer [Source] from the perspective of the farmer preparing.

To go into the deep weeds behind what is causing this massive jump in price, you can review THIS ARTICLE.

[…] “Compared to September 2020 prices, ammonia has increased over 210%, liquid nitrogen has increased over 159%, urea is up 155%, and MAP has increased 125%, while DAP is up over 100% and potash has risen above 134%.”

Those fertilizer component products are used for corn, wheat and soybeans crops.

[…] “Corn represents about 49% of the share of U.S. nutrient use, while wheat accounts for about 11% and soybeans account for 10%. Cumulatively, those three crops account for about 70% of U.S. fertilizer consumption.” {link}

Now, you might say those crops do not seem like they are that important.  However, keep in mind that Corn, Wheat and Soybeans represent the baseline for not only grain production in the U.S, but they are also the primary feed products for proteins: chicken, pork and beef.

Worse yet, both grain and protein are the primary ingredients in pet foods; so pet food producers end up collecting even more price increases in their manufacturing. Have you noticed a shortage of pet food on your shopping trips?

When fertilizer goes up that high in price, the end cost of that harvest goes up in price, along with the end price of everything the harvest is used for.

So now we get to the point in the supply chain where these protein price increases show up to the average consumer.

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Hopefully everyone has done their preparatory diligence and are well situated to assist their family, because prices on fast turn consumable goods (groceries) are now less than 30 days from entering exponential increase phase.  CTH has been counting down the days to impact as the contract terms of 30, 60 and 90 days have begun expiring.

The Wall Street Journal has seen the first pricing notification memo from Kraft-Heinz food group to the buying offices of major U.S. retailers.  Here’s how the WSJ presents it: “Kraft Heinz Co. told retailer customers that it would raise prices across many of its products including Jell-O pudding and Grey Poupon mustard, with some items going up as much as 20%, according to a memo viewed by The Wall Street Journal.”  VIDEO:

Keep in mind a few points:

(1) The outlined price increases noted are against current price terms and contracts.  Meaning, these are price increases from right now to the next fulfillment.  These are not inflation price increases which are compared to a year ago.  These are 5% to 20% increases from the current price right now.

(2) The price increases are not the final price increase.  This is the price of a contract today from the field to the distribution center.  The retailer also has additional price increases (transportation, energy, labor, etc) which they need to add to the wholesale price before you see the final price at retail (grocery store).

The final field to fork price is not yet known but will be higher than noted above.  We are only seeing the notifications from field, through processing and into warehousing and distribution.

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Interesting choice of media outlets for his final nail delivery.  Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) appears on Fox News to confirm the Build Back Better negotiations are done, and he’s done, and the $4.5 trillion legislation is dead.   During the expanded explanation by Senator Manchin, he points to two primary issues with the bill.

First, it is a massive takeover of the U.S. economy, and the basic outline of the bill details never changed.  The ‘negotiations‘ that were taking place amounted to the White House putting an ever shorter end date on the legislation.   The Senate was giving the appearance of a lower cost by shifting the sunset clause; however, from beginning to end the scope of the legislation never changed.

Second, the issue of inflation has been created by Joe Biden policy.  Regulations, energy policy, monetary policy, reckless fiscal policy and massive spending have led to massive inflation.  Manchin explains how inflation is not sustainable for his constituents in West Virginia.

In my opinion, Manchin is positioning himself for a Democrat presidential race.

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I’m not confident that Joe Manchin will ultimately hold the line on more spending; however, it is interesting that on the same day Manchin is reported to be casting doubt on more Joe Biden social spending {LINK}, the Washington Post published a hitjob on him around his family finances {LINK}.

Accepting there are no coincidences in politics, it would appear the intelligence agencies are firing a warning shot against Senator Manchin based on his financial connections to the West Virginia coal industry.

(New York Times) – WASHINGTON — Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, the most prominent Democratic holdout on President Biden’s $2.2 trillion social safety net, climate and tax bill, cast fresh doubt on Monday on his party’s plans to speed the measure through the Senate before Christmas, saying he still had grave concerns about how it would affect the economy.

Mr. Manchin outlined his skepticism before speaking by telephone about the bill with Mr. Biden, a discussion that aides to both later characterized as positive. After the call, Mr. Manchin, who represents West Virginia, did not rule out the possibility of supporting the measure this month. He said that “anything is possible here” when asked about a vote before Christmas, and that he was still “engaged” in conversations with the White House.

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Well, there’s another “economist” who can be set into the folder of ‘no longer useful’.  During his appearance today on CBS Face The Nation, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser for Allianz, finishes his segment by revealing his underlying precept: Climate Change policy is now the economic policy driver of all his investment advice.

Within the interview, El-Erian said the “characterization of inflation as transitory is probably the worst inflation call in the history of the Federal Reserve.”  Additionally, El-Erian said inflation is likely to remain high into the next year and perhaps beyond.  Unfortunately, other than those two points of generally well educated accuracy, everything else is wrapped up in the political correctness of climate change…. which, you don’t really discover until the very end of the interview. WATCH:

The baseline for El-Erian saying the Build Back Better spending fiasco is a good thing, is based on accepting the pretense that massive amounts of federal spending will be needed to structurally change the U.S. economy from fossil fuel use to the Green New Deal.   If you do not believe in this transformation, there is no merit to any component of the BBB spending proposal. It really is that simple.

As a consequence, El-Erian is staking the position that climate change agenda politics is now the focal point from which all other economic policy will be determined.  He has conceded in his mind and worldview, perhaps based on his associations and peer discussions, that any forward economic analysis must therefore establish itself from the alternative fuel position.

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At the most troubling level, Joe Biden believes what people tell him to say for the reason they tell him to say it.  This reality underscores the reason why Barack Obama’s network selected Biden as their disposable front man in 2020.  Biden sounds convinced, because Biden is convinced.  He’s wrong, factually and fundamentally wrong, but he believes what he repeats in public.

The most painfully obvious examples of this dynamic are present when Joe Biden explains economic things based on what other people have told him.  The guy really is the modern personification of the naked emperor parading around to show off an invisible coat that he genuinely believes he’s wearing. The self-deception would be embarrassing except for the fact he is only deceiving himself; so people laugh…. but this is dangerous.

Questioned today about inflation, Joe Biden starts talking about his Build Back Better program.  It really is worth watching to see how oddly emphatic he is in the belief that if government pays for a thing (childcare, healthcare, prescriptions) the cost of that thing somehow mysteriously disappears.

Biden believes that if government subsidizes something there is no longer a cost associated with it.  He believes this.

Setting aside the historic fact/truth that anything government pays or subsidizes ultimately costs more, the real cognitive dissonance in Biden’s worldview is that any cost associate with a ‘thing‘ disappears if the government pays for that ‘thing’.   From that bizarre viewpoint, the disappearance of public expense for that government subsidized thing then creates “deflation”, or a lowering in overall prices.

This claim is abject nonsense.  Truly and genuinely batshit crazy nonsense.

Example.  According to Joe Biden’s talking point: if government pays for college education, the price of a college student’s car drops.  It doesn’t.  To make that claim is absurd in the extreme.   The college student may have more money to pay for a car if they are not paying for tuition, but the car itself doesn’t change in price.

A person may have more money to pay for groceries if they are not paying for childcare expenses, but the price of the groceries doesn’t change.   The inflation on the prices of products at the grocery store does not change just because some families no longer have daycare expenses.   But Joe Biden believes it does.   (more…)