CTH analyzes data to assemble unemotional models that reflect/predict outcomes.  If this type of government mandate expands much further, there WILL be rationing – it is an inescapable conclusion.  It’s not a matter of “if“, it’s a matter of when… where… and how.

Perhaps that explains all the National Guard deployments and pre-staging:

Kansas/Missouri – Today the CORE 4 partners of Jackson County, Missouri; Johnson County, Kansas; Kansas City, Missouri, and the Unified Government of Wyandotte County/Kansas City, Kansas, based on the urgency of the COVID-19 public health emergency and the imminent rapid progression of the pandemic in our area, announce that beginning Tuesday, March 24, residents will be directed to stay at home except for essential needs.

All jurisdictions will issue orders that will stay in effect for 30 days from the effective date of March 24, with consideration after 30 days of whether to prolong these orders beyond that date, based on public health and critical care metrics available at that time.

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Math is math. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to do the math, understand the logistics of the current extreme demand, recognize that fixed assets are limited, and realize if you shut down essential services for truckers the total supply-chain will suffer.

On March 17th Pennsylvania officially shuttered all Turnpike service plazas in response to coronavirus concerns. However, the decision was ridiculously short-sighted as long-haul and regional Truckers depend on fuel stations, bathrooms and restaurants along the route. Thankfully PA officials realized their error and reopened the service stations yesterday.

PA Authority – The Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission has agreed to reopen all of service plazas that they shuttered earlier this week for Coronavirus.

All 17 closed service plazas are set to reopen at 7 a.m. on Friday, March 20, according to a news release from the Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission.

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We are entering into phase-3 of the supply-chain distribution shortages within the retail food sector.   Phase-1 was immediate impact.  Phase-2 was the spread to the warehouse and distribution.  Phase-3 impacts are further upstream, processing & suppliers.

The current shelf-stock shortages are not soon to reconcile; however, the shortages are still in the regional phase.  Meaning there is a big difference in the availability of products depending on the type of distribution network, and the specific retailers, in your area.

The ‘spider-spread effect’ happens when large metropolitan chains, serving large urban and megalopolis areas (1 million+ residents in 50 mile radius), reach a critical shortage in their supply network; and those residents then drive distances to locate their needs.  This is going on now across the country as regional supply chains try to keep up with demand.

Most consumers are not aware food consumption in the U.S. is now a 50/50 proposition. Approximately 50% of all food was consumed “outside the home” (or food away from home), and 50% of all food consumed was food “inside the home” (grocery shoppers).

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Earlier today President Trump met with executives from the U.S. tourism industry to discuss how their operation are impacted by the various COVID-19 mitigation efforts.

Participants included: Roger Dow, President & CEO, Travel Association; Chip Rogers, President & CEO, American Hotel & Lodging Association (AHLA); Jon Bortz, President and CEO, Pebblebrook Hotel Trust and AHLA Chairman; Elie Maalouf, President, The Americas, Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG); Christopher Nassetta, President & CEO, Hilton; Arne Sorenson, President & CEO, Marriott International; Richard Bates, EVP, Disney; Mark Hoplamazian, President & CEO, Hyatt Hotels Corporation; John Sprouls, Chief Administrative Officer, Universal Parks and Resorts; Patrick Pacious, President and CEO, Choice Hotels International; David Kong, CEO, Best Western Hotels and Resorts; Jim Murren, President & CEO, MGM  [Video and Transcript Below]

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[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: Well, thank you very much. We have the tourism industry executives, the biggest anywhere in the world. These are the great ones, and they’re going to say a couple of little words pretty soon, I think. We’ll talk about their company quickly and the number of employees and what’s happened since the Chinese virus came about. And they’ll be discussing that.

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By today the closure of dine-in restaurants should be in full swing across almost all areas. Understandably there’s going to be an operational lag as many of those restaurants don’t have the systems or equipment in place for exclusive take-out or pick-up services (ie. carry-out containers); though hopefully many are responding quickly to the changes.

The upstream consequence of the restaurant disruption is going to be even more pressure on grocery outlets already seeing additional traffic. Many people now shifting from meals “outside the home”, back to the more traditional “home-cooked” meals etc. Which brings up the question of the retail supermarket capacity to meet that extra demand.

This coronavirus event is like a nationwide pre-Hurricane shopping experience.

There have been numerous reports of wide-scale shortages in retail food markets. On the positive side this experienced supply chain has the ability to scale-up very fast (depending on region). However, on a national scale this is the first time the entire country has needed this level of increased retail food distribution simultaneously. To cope with the volume most stores appear to have reduced their hours of operation.

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Horrific coincidence that might not entirely be a coincidence.  A Ukraine 737 Airliner, Flight 752 from Tehran to Ukraine, is lost shortly after take-off.  The incident takes place only hours after Iran fires ballistic missiles into Iraq targeting U.S. bases.

Video of the plane crashing shows the airliner in flames as it nears the ground and explodes.  Some preliminary reporting indicated the flight might have been accidentally shot down by Iranian anti-aircraft defenses.  [Note: All early details are sketchy]

(Via Daily Mail) A Ukrainian passenger plane carrying 170 passengers and crew has crashed near Tehran just three minutes after takeoff.
The plane had taken off from Imam Khomeini International Airport when it suffered ‘technical problems’, Iranian State TV reported.
Unverified video footage tweeted by the BBC’s Iran correspondent, Ali Hashem, appeared to show the plane burning in the sky before crashing in a huge explosion.

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Wait,… what? Who cancelled the recession?

Remember when the financial media and democrats were assuring everyone the U.S. economy was g.u.a.r.a.n.t.e.e.d to enter a recessionary phase? Well, apparently MAGA Trump cancelled it… with the help of millions of U.S. middle-class workers who are spending their wage increases, bigly.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the third quarter (Q3) GDP growth estimate today, and the overall Q3 GDP growth is +1.9 percent. However, behind the economic growth stats the scale of U.S. Main Street strength is the real story.

[BEA pdf link – table 3]

Main Street consumer spending was up $64 billion on goods and $36 billion on services. As those who follow MAGAnomics closely will remember, the Main Street economy is founded upon middle-class spending. Strong jobs, wage growth, low taxes, low inflation, and low energy costs, means more disposable income.  Disposable income grew 4.5% in the third quarter.
The U.S. economy is strong because approximately 80% of everything produced inside our economy is consumed inside our economy. As long as the underlying jobs market stays strong, consumer spending leads to self-fulfilling economic expansion. Main Street is doing very well.
The weakness is Wall Street investment into expanded production of goods in the U.S.
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President Trump was scheduled to meet with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer for a discussion over an infrastructure spending bill.  However, after partisan remarks by Nancy Pelosi accusing President Trump of a cover-up, any hope of negotiating an infrastructure bill collapsed.  President Trump is angered:

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In the aftermath of GM’s announcement to close the Lordstown, Ohio, auto assembly facility, President Trump worked earnestly to get GM to sell the facility and save jobs for the region.  Today President Trump and GM CEO Mary Barra announce the likely sale to Workhorse Group pending UAW union approval.

Washington (AFP) – General Motors Wednesday announced plans to invest $700 million in Ohio and to sell a shuttered plant to a company that makes electric trucks, drawing cheers from President Donald Trump who has assailed the US automaker for cutting American jobs.

“GREAT NEWS FOR OHIO!” Trump tweeted, revealing the details ahead of the company’s official announcement.

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President Trump holds a mini press conference with Small Business Administration head Linda McMahon to announce her departure.  During the presser President Trump also answers questions on a variety of current events. [Video and Transcript Below]

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[Transcript] Mar-a-Lago – Palm Beach, Florida, – 4:17 P.M. EDT
THE PRESIDENT: Well, thank you very much. Linda McMahon has done an incredible job as the head of the Small Business Administration. She has been a superstar. The fact is that I’ve known her for a long time. I knew she was good, but I didn’t know she was that good. She has been one of our all-time favorites. It was just so smooth. She’s helped so many people in the world of small business.
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