We have been tracking the issue of U.S. port congestion, supply chain crises and the White House supply chain initiatives since they first surfaced last fall.  We finally have full data to review, and what we see is very disturbing.  Not only was the White House supply chain effort a fraud, but they also manipulated the port system to give a false impression of the U.S. economy.

Let’s start with the latest issue.

For several weeks, we have been trying to figure out why the Port of Los Angeles (POLA), our nation’s busiest and most valuable port, had delayed their reporting for December.

Normally they update their container statistics and port efficiency/productivity results between the 10th and 15th of the month.  However, this month the data was delayed by several weeks.

When we finally grew frustrated and asked the POLA about this ridiculous delay, they responded January 25th, saying: “Good morning. Data from one vessel has delayed final numbers. We plan on releasing numbers today or tomorrow.”

The POLA justification and timing seemed odd, and their explanation seemed fishy.  One container ship manages to delay the entire POLA result?  However, this morning after checking and seeing still no result we realized what was going on.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the U.S. 4th Quarter GDP result (link).  The value of imported goods is a deduction to the U.S. GDP.  If the biggest port in the U.S. holds back their import cargo data, the resulting information cannot be deducted from the GDP.  Missing data gives an artificial outlook for the GDP.  Put another way, the 4th quarter GDP is inflated by the missing deduction.

From the position of the Biden administration, there is a perverse economic motive to keep all those import cargo ships from arriving.

Would the Port of Los Angeles intentionally hold back data in order to help the White House give a false and more optimistic impression of the U.S. economy?  At first blush it might seem a stretch, but then – as if on cue – a few hours after the BEA made the public release, suddenly the Port of Los Angeles released their December data.  In politics timing is never coincidental.

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A Gallup news survey [DATA HERE] indicates that eight out of ten Americans expect higher prices and continued rising inflation, as the working class can see the through the smoke and mirrors of the Biden economy.

Overall, there are multiple datapoints that show the economic quagmire that is taking place right now.  Gasoline continues to rise in price, as oil costs continue to skyrocket as an outcome of Biden energy policy.  Food store prices have only just begun to show the higher prices that are built into the replenishment process.

Newly arriving goods overall are at a much higher price that previous inventory.  The 30, 60 and 90-day terms of purchase order fulfillment are now reflecting the cumulative cost increases at every stage in the supply chain.  Inbound prices to retail are still climbing. This is an economic quagmire created by inflation that cannot be avoided.

Fuel, food, home energy and home prices overall are rising.  As a result, durable good spending has contracted.  CTH has pointed out this dynamic for almost five months; however, the actual data is difficult to extract, because the scale of government spending in 2021 has clouded all of the economic indicators.

The official government inflation statistics at 7 to 9% do not accurately reflect the real inflation being felt by consumers, which is in the 25 to 40 percent range for highly consumable products.  If you look around your local community, it is not difficult to see that working class Americans have modified all of their spending priorities to deal with the food, energy and housing inflation that cannot be avoided.

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The support for the Canadian trucker protest is already getting results.   As we shared previously, ‘the absence of food will change things‘, and the reason is simple, it focuses priorities.

In the bigger picture, a grassroots protest from Main Street (truckers) forces the multinationals to a position of vulnerability.  The multinationals control the politicians, so any pressure applied directly to the multinationals ends up being transmitted to their beneficiaries, the government officials.

In the modern era, the professional left has used this dynamic to pressure corporations via organized activism and leftist demands.  However, the middle class actually has more power in this type of engagement, they just don’t use it.

The Canadian trucker protest is an example of the working class using the power of their influence.  The results are immediately surfacing.

The multinational business advocacy groups in Canada are now telling the Canadian government officials to back down from their vaccination mandate against the truckers.

CANADA – Business leaders are urging Ottawa to ease vaccine mandates for cross-border truckers to relieve the congested supply chain with the United States.  

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau defended Monday the mandate as a necessary step to keep supply chains open, arguing that COVID-19 itself is the biggest risk to Canada’s economy.  But in separate statements the Canadian Chamber of Commerce and the Canadian Manufacturing Coalition both urged him to back down.

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The preparation window has closed.

Given the destabilized and tenuous nature of the current supply chain, many people wondered if the Biden administration would actually be stupid enough to follow through with a truck driver vaccination mandate.  The answer is yes.  Please conduct yourselves accordingly.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) updated their guidance yesterday [LINK HERE] and put a hard date of tomorrow, January 22nd, for the trucker vaccine mandate at all border crossings and ferry terminals.   Canada put the vaccine mandate into effect last week, January 15th.

[Dept. of Homeland Security] – [..]  “Starting on January 22, 2022, the Department of Homeland Security will require that non-U.S. individuals entering the United States via land ports of entry or ferry terminals along our Northern and Southern borders be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 and be prepared to show related proof of vaccination,” said Secretary Alejandro N. Mayorkas. “These updated travel requirements reflect the Biden-Harris Administration’s commitment to protecting public health while safely facilitating the cross-border trade and travel that is critical to our economy.”

These changes – which were first announced in October 2021 and made in consultation with the White House and several federal agencies, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) – will align public health measures that govern land travel with those that govern incoming international air travel.

Non-U.S. individuals traveling to the United States via land ports of entry or ferry terminals, whether for essential or non-essential reasons, must:

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Perhaps the mainstream media is starting to wake up.  NBC is now reporting that cross-border auto parts and food shipments may start being disrupted as the trucker vaccine mandate begins.  Approximately 60 to 75% of all U.S. truckers are not vaccinated.  The cross-border vaccine mandate for American truckers begins January 22nd as part of the Dept of Homeland Security protocol.

In October DHS announced:

…”beginning in early January 2022, DHS will require that all inbound foreign national travelers crossing U.S. land or ferry POEs – whether for essential or non-essential reasons – be fully vaccinated for COVID-19 and provide related proof of vaccination. This approach will provide ample time for essential travelers such as truckers, students, and healthcare workers to get vaccinated.” (link)

The Canadian trucker vaccine mandate began January 15th, the U.S. mandate begins this weekend, January 22nd.  Given the scale of out of season fresh fruit and vegetable shipments from South and Central America, as well as Mexico, we can anticipate serious issues in the food supply chain.  The NBC article highlights trade with Canada, but that’s miniscule when compared to the trade we get from Mexico.

(Via NBC) – […] The U.S. mandate, announced in October, requires all essential foreign travelers, including truck drivers, who cross U.S. land borders to be fully vaccinated. Essential nonresident travelers had been able to enter the U.S. during the pandemic regardless of their vaccination status, in part so as not to disrupt trade and to give them more time to get vaccinated.

The forthcoming mandate follows one that went into effect in Canada last week that prohibits unvaccinated truckers from crossing into Canada from the U.S.

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There are two merging inflection points set to hit the public in a few days.

The first, is a much faster collapse in credibility for those who are pushing the vaccine benefit narrative.  The second, the more widespread appearance of shortages for food and basic essentials.  These two broad narratives are going to merge. CTH will outline the issues as they predictably surface.  This outline focuses on the latter, the supply chain angle.

♦ The cross-border vaccination mandate protests by truckers are continuing in Canada and at areas near the U.S-Canada border.  The vaccine mandate for the Canadian side began on January 15th. The mandate for the U.S. truckers begins January 22nd.  Both groups are currently slow-rolling the protest in/around the border crossings.

A coordinated Trucker Protest on the Canadian side is scheduled for January 23rd {LINK}, coincidentally the same time as a protest rally in Washington DC by members of the healthcare industry.  It is not coincidental that retail executives in the grocery industry are starting to prepare people in Canada for major grocery shortages {LINK}.

CANADA – “[…] “Independent grocers are in a myriad of communities in this country where there is no other grocery store,” Sands said. “If those stores close, you’ve got a food security issue.”

Meanwhile, stores are also experiencing a shortage of goods stemming from supply chain issues, including a shortage of truckers, packaging and processing delays and the Canadian winter.

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This is crazy.  The Canadian government is saying someone made a mistake when they announced they were rescinding the vaccine mandate for cross border commercial truck drivers.  As of right NOW, the January 15th deadline is in place.  All truck drivers from the U.S. or Canada will have to prove their vaccinated status in order to cross the border.

CANADA – The federal government says that unvaccinated Canadian truckers will not be exempted from the new federal vaccine mandate for truck drivers coming into effect this weekend.

In a joint statement, Canada’s transportation, health, and public safety ministers said that Canada’s initial policy requiring truckers coming into Canada to be fully vaccinated, or face PCR testing and quarantine requirements, stands.

Despite the Canada Border Services Agency telling reporters on Wednesday that unvaccinated Canadian truck drivers arriving at the border would “remain exempt” from any testing or quarantine requirements, the government now says that information, provided by a spokesperson, was incorrect.

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Once you see the strings on the marionettes, you can never return to that time in the performance when you did not see them.  I have often repeated this phrase specifically as it pertains to political motives and the intents of the professionally republican, the DeceptiCons.

Late December, the New York Times reported {LINK} that South Dakota Senator John Thune, the heir apparent to Senate Leader Mitch McConnell, was considering retiring because the Trump influence, the MAGA base, was not in alignment with his corporate and Wall Street donor class worldview.

Those who have watched closely know Senator Mitch McConnell has positioned Senator Thune to take over in the Senate (zipper problems not withstanding).  The Machiavellian purpose of the positioning is to put Thune in place as a line of defense to protect the interest of the political establishment and the aligned Fourth Branch of Government.

Now, follow this sequence closely….

Yesterday, the New York Times announced that Thune was indeed going to run for reelection {LINK}. “Senator John Thune of South Dakota, the second-ranking Senate Republican, announced on Saturday that he would seek re-election, after an aggressive lobbying campaign by colleagues prompted him to put aside concerns about the future of his party and pursue a fourth term.”

Today, the usually invisible other Senator from South Dakota, Senator Mike Rounds, appears on ABC This Week with George Stephanopoulos, to undermine Donald Trump and say the former president “could be prosecuted” for his involvement in the J6 terrorist attack “if the DOJ has evidence.”

I am prompting the remarks from Mike Rounds below.  WATCH:

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Things that seem disconnected but aren’t.  The thirteen bullet points below are the issues we will first notice as the general food supply chain begins show signs of vulnerability.  This outline explains why it is happening and how long it can be expected.

In the previous October, November and December warnings we emphasized preparation and counted down the 90-day window.  Now, as we enter the final two weeks before mid/late January, the date of our original prediction, it appears that some media are starting to catch up and the larger public is starting to notice.   [NOTE: We nailed the timeline almost to the week]

Feel free to note in the comments section what is happening in your area.  Hopefully, most of us are much better positioned than the average person who has not been following this as closely over the past several months.

Initial food instability signs in the supply chain.  Things to look for: 

(1) A shortage of processed potatoes (frozen specifically).

And/Or a shortage of the ancillary products that are derivates of, or normally include, potatoes.

(2) A larger than usual footprint of turkey in the supermarket (last line of protein).

(3) A noticeable increase in the price of citrus products.

(4) A sparse distribution of foodstuffs that rely on flavorings.

(5) The absence of non-seasonal products.

(6) Little to no price difference on the organic comparable (diff supply chain)

(7) Unusual country of origin for fresh product type.

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I do not know how better to emphasize the points other than to be direct and brutally honest.  Sometimes you just have to call the baby ugly.  The window to prepare for the incoming crisis of our lifetime is now down to two weeks.  Hopefully, that is specific enough.

As we have discussed on these pages, the interventionist policies and regulations from the people creating the COVID response (writ large) have been fubar from the beginning. {Go Deep} When they shut down the restaurants and hospitality sector (2020 lockdowns), the advisors and bureaucrats triggered a cascading series of events inside the food supply chain {Go Deep}.

Every policy implementation since then has made matters worse {Go Deep}

Adding to the supply chain and inflation crisis, in about a week the vaccine mandate and subsequent commercial passport means 30,000 cross border truckers are about to get shut down from operating between the United States and Canada.

“70% of the 700 billion in trade between Canada and the US is moved by truck. This will have a dramatic effect on supplies and services reaching their destination and getting in the hands of those who need them. One needs to look no further than the recent UK fuel shortage, where the military had to be brought in to deliver fuel as a result of a lack of truck drivers. We are already seeing shortages, if these shortages reach critical levels on items such as fuel, food, blood, medicine or medical supplies, we will see real long-lasting damage.”

~ Mike Milliam, President of the Private Motor Truck Council of Canada

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