Wait,… wha?  Prices were supposed to skyrocket, so said the experts, pundits, Wall Street analysts and all the ‘talking heads.’  Alas, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) releases the April consumer price index [SEE HERE] and, shocker, prices on the critical consumer goods that matter most are dropping.

The rate of inflation dropped to a four-year low in April. Overall consumer prices increased 2.3% from a year earlier, down from 2.4% rise in March.  However, inside the number’s things get better.  Prices for groceries, food at home including eggs, used cars and gasoline all fell.

Meats, poultry and eggs dropped 1.6% overall.  The price of eggs dropped 12.7% for the month. [SEE TABLE 2]   Fuel Oil dropped 2.6%, propane dropped 4.7%.  If it’s a food product grown and harvested in America, the price dropped.  Remember that popular boycott by the Canadians on Orange Juice and citrus from Florida?  Oranges dropped 3.7% in price for American consumers; Citrus overall -2.8%.

The items that are critical to a middle-class or working-class family, all dropped in price.  This is exactly the same pricing outcome we experienced in 2017 that continued for two years.   Energy prices drive farm prices and the total food supply chain; the energy prices have dropped substantially since President Trump took office.

Keep an eye on the “Relative Importance Index” [first column table, 2], because this is where the BLS statisticians will start to play with the data in order to stop President Trump from getting credit for lower prices.  The BLS manipulating this index point is why CTH stopped using their data reports in 2022.  Many people were perplexed at the end of 2021 when suddenly the inflation data no longer made sense.  The BLS changed the priority weighting in order to assist Biden.

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Appearing on CNBC this morning, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gives an outline of the discussions between the USA and China.  Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer held meetings with the Chinese delegation in Geneva, Switzerland this past weekend.

Pay attention to Secretary Bessent describing [05:40] how Chinese ‘overproduction’ is now reaching the shores of partnered nations, that is the element CTH previously outlined {SEE HERE}, which is a rather significant issue right now.  The goods themselves are not ‘generic’ in nature, they are branded high-end products awaiting labeling and distribution once their component part of the global tariff is determined.  This is part of the ‘urgency’ motive for Beijing to seek some understanding of the timeline.

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As expected by anyone with common sense, the statement by Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng is considerably different from the U.S. media interpretation of the White House statement.

According to He Lifeng: […] “The atmosphere of the meeting was candid, in-depth and constructive. The meeting reached substantial progress and achieved important consensus. The two sides agreed on establishing a consultation mechanism for trade and economic issues, identified the lead persons on each side, and will carry on further consultations relating to trade and economic issues of their respective concerns. The two sides will finalize relevant details as soon as possible and will issue a joint statement reached on May 12.”

[…] “China’s position towards this trade war has been clear and consistent; that is, China doesn’t want to fight a trade war, because trade wars produce no winners.  But if the U.S. insists on forcing this war upon us, China will not be afraid of it and will fight to the end.” 

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This ‘clarification‘ of sorts by Big Panda should not come as a surprise, despite the White House press release and the wording of the title.

Neither Secretary Bessent nor USTR Greer would make an announcement of a “trade deal” in advance of President Trump’s personal announcement. PERIOD!

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White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett always does a good job of framing the current status without impeding the negotiating strategy of the White House trade delegation.

In this morning’s interview, happy Hassett outlines the motivation for China to quickly get to an agreement on principle about their U.S. trade position, and the structure of the personnel who are present on Beijing’s behalf to organize the discussion.  As noted earlier, Bessent and Greer were very careful in their language to promote positive advancement of agreement to the framework but avoid calling the outcome of the discussions a completed deal.

Hassett encapsulates the current trade status with China and other nations.  WATCH:

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No doubt President Trump is leaning back a little following the White House statement.  The Chinese announcements are not as forcefully positive as the White House ‘headline’ press release.  There’s a disconnect afoot that needs to be reconciled quickly or it makes the White House look weak while cunning panda smiles.

It would be surprising to see an actual “trade agreement” with China, before the commitments from ASEAN countries to stop transnational shipping exploitation are in place.

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The White House has released a statement headlining: “U.S. Announces China Trade Deal in Geneva.” However, the use of the wording “trade deal” is being disputed by China who prefer to say, a “consensus was reached.”

Indeed, if you listen to the wording from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Rep Jamieson Greer, there is no talk of an actual deal in their language. Methinks whoever wrote the White House headline, that is (not accidentally) currently manipulating the markets, will be soon given the exit. Here’s the remarks from Bessent and Greer:

The White House statement is below:

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The background IS HERE and seemingly doesn’t change much.  President Trump notes in an announcement via Truth Social that “GREAT PROGRESS MADE.”

The terms “total reset” and “opening up of China” are noteworthy.

[SOURCE]

Praise for the Panda face is always part of the “art of the deal’ dynamic.

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President Donald Trump is confronting the dragon behind the panda mask with precision. It’s very obvious the prior reconnaissance, trade probes and tariff tests of ’17, ’18, ’19, are paying dividends.

President Trump has cut off the transnational shipping lanes by globalizing the tariffs against China. Beijing is in a forced holding pattern waiting to see the outcome of Southeast Asia and European trade agreements.

Having spent some serious time in the field in advance of ‘Liberty Day’ all of my contacts have the same message; China is trying to find position.

In a little reported reality, in order to offset the problem, many Chinese manufacturers have actually continued the production of several branded product lines (very well-known and established brands) despite the absence of orders for the finished goods from the companies.

Several shipments of those finished goods have started to arrive at China-partnered ports. This is very interesting, because it may lead to market dumping of a higher quality product than most anticipate.

Within the apparel sector, ASEAN consumers cannot afford the fashion branded product at the prices determined by the actual brand owners. However, there is now a strong likelihood -based on what is being reported by the receivers- that the product itself will be marketed -likely dumped- without the brand label. This is actually high-quality apparel distributed for a fraction of the price of the brand.

I’ll be getting more details on this soon, however, it looks like the broad outlines are verified by multiple sources. I’ll use some fake names to explain.

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White House NEC Director Kevin Hassett gives an update on the current status of trade negotiations around the world.  After finishing a CNBC interview (also linked below) Director Hassett noted that Asia was likely to be the next place for an announcement following the completion of the United Kingdom deal.

Hassett outlines that approximately “two dozen” bilateral free trade agreements are completed within the reciprocity framework, and the sequencing of announcements is up to President Trump.  Japan, South Korea and ASEAN nations would be candidates for the next deal as announced. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and USTR Jamieson Greer are currently in Switzerland and will be meeting with their Chinese counterparts to begin the first point of discussion. WATCH:

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The press availability above comes immediately following a more extensive CNBC interview which is outlined below.

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President Trump is scheduled to announce the first negotiated trade deal in the global trade reset with the United States.  The deal is between the U.K and the USA, which is interesting as a UK free trade agreement was being worked on at the time COVID-19 hit in 2020.

Back in 2019 President Trump and then Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross were working two strategic trade negotiations at the same time that never materialized. The first was an FTA with the U.K and the second was with the EU.  The nuance of the U.K deal was favorable and structurally aligned to create leverage against the EU negotiations. It will be interesting to see how this one is structured.

From President Trump this morning on Truth Social: “The agreement with the United Kingdom is a full and comprehensive one that will cement the relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom for many years to come. Because of our long time history and allegiance together, it is a great honor to have the United Kingdom as our FIRST announcement. Many other deals, which are in serious stages of negotiation, to follow!”

UPDATE: VIDEO ADDED

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In the U.K and throughout Europe May 8th is known as “VE Day” designating Victory of Europe Day, commemorating May 8, 1945, marking the Allies’ acceptance of Germany’s unconditional surrender.

In Russia May 8th is known as “Victory Day” celebrating the defeat of the Nazi regime and honoring the 27 million Russians killed in World War II. By several magnitude Russia suffered the most casualties in the war, losing approximately 9 million military and 18 million civilians.

Today, President Trump signed a proclamation designating May 8th also as “Victory Day” [SEE HERE], recognizing that without the United States entering the war, the German Nazi regime would not have been defeated.

Russia and the USA using “Victory Day,” while Europe uses “VE Day.” Huh, maybe a message in there somewhere.

The announcement was made during the swearing-in ceremony for David Perdue as U.S. Ambassador to China.  The media questions begin at 9:11 of the video below.  WATCH: 

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WHITE HOUSE – Today, our Nation proudly commemorates the 80th anniversary of the Allied Powers’ triumph over national socialism and fascism, and the end of World War II in Europe — one of the most epic victories for forces of freedom in the history of the world. On this Victory Day for World War II, we celebrate the unmatched might, strength, and power of the American Armed Forces, and we commit to protecting our sacred birthright of liberty against all threats, foreign and domestic.

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