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(Part II) – Coronavirus as a Global Economic Reset…

…there had to be a point where the value of the Wall St economy surpassed the value of the Main St economy… Part I Here

We now look forward, and consider the question: How would the multinational underwriters, the multinational financial systems, reset all transactional tables (the bookkeeping systems underneath the valuation) if the U.S. stock market was ever forced to re-value economic nationalism over multinational globalism?

To first answer the “how” question, we must visit the “why” question. Why would the multinational financial underwriters want to reset their valuations?

Obviously, the global financial system does not act altruistically. What would motivate the global wealth valuation authority (various market investment indexes) to want, or need, a reset.

The answer to the “why” question might not be as challenging as it appears.

First, there has been a seismic shift in how the world looks at the economic exploitation of multinational systems, or globalism.  See Bernie Sanders?  See those yellow vests in France?  See what happened with the U.K. Brexit referendum?  See the shrinking EU influence?  See the open/public confrontation and push-back against China? See Trump? All examples are consequences of the rise of economic nationalism.

Secondly, the original Wall Street corporate motive (during decades of mergers and acquisitions) to shift product manufacturing to Southeast Asia (ASEAN nations) was driven by a lower cost of overall business, higher profit margins and greed.

As a direct outcome economic wealth was shifted from the U.S. to ASEAN nations, and particularly China. Low wages, low regulation, cheap operational costs, incentives and subsidies from Asia equals cheap TV’s, sneakers, furniture and durable goods.

Even with high fuel prices and overseas shipping costs, there was a big difference between U.S. and ASEAN manufacturing costs.  As hundreds of U.S. Wall Street multinationals chased profits the rust-belt was created.

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(Part I) – Coronavirus as a Global Economic Reset…

A very big picture discussion requires a considerable baseline.

The stock market is not the U.S. economy; the stock market is an investment instrument that determines valuations of economic activity company by company. The valuation is considerably arbitrary, based on the determinations of the arbiters (investors). This is empirically true.

However, that said, how would the multinational underwriters, the multinational financial systems, reset all transactional tables (the bookkeeping systems underneath the valuation) …if the U.S. stock market was every forced to re-value economic nationalism over multinational globalism?    Enter “Coronavirus”.

Four years ago CTH first explained a new way to look at the U.S. economic system and how Main Street was/is disconnected from Wall Street.  We presented a metaphor to explain. Before going deeper into the discussion of tomorrow; and at the request of several people who now accept the era of “deglobalization” is upon us,  I first present that prior reference & then will use this as the baseline to describe what could come next.

There is a key phrase at the fulcrum of everything past:

…there had to be a point where the value of the second economy (Wall Street) surpassed the value of the first economy (Main Street).

What we are going to outline in part II is the possibility what happens when this natural truism is reversed.  The objective is to answer: How, specifically would Wall Street reset its evaluative systems if Main Street once again emerged as the priority?

But first, a baseline revisit is needed.

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Canada Ratifies USMCA Trade Agreement…

Canada completes the North American cycle with their ratification of the USMCA to replace NAFTA. Mexico and the U.S. ratified the new trade agreement last year and January respectively.  The Canadian parliament did so yesterday.

CANADA – Canada on Friday formally approved the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), taking the last legislative step to implementation of the deal to replace the 25-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

The trade deal, ratified by the Mexican legislature last June and by Congress in January, was formally ratified by the Canadian Senate Friday, and shortly thereafter received royal assent, the Canadian governor general’s approval.

The deal was passed through the legislature before Parliament shut down for five weeks in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

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Guess Who's Coming to Dinner…

7:30pm – THE PRESIDENT participates in a working dinner with the President of the Federative Republic of Brazil

White House – President Donald J. Trump will meet President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil at Mar-a-Lago on Saturday, March 7, 2020. President Trump and President Bolsonaro will discuss opportunities to build a more prosperous, secure, and democratic world.

As leaders of the Hemisphere’s two largest economies, they will also discuss opportunities for restoring democracy in Venezuela, bringing peace to the Middle East, implementing pro-growth trade policies, and investing in infrastructure. The President will use this meeting as an opportunity to thank Brazil for its strong alliance with the United States. (link)

MAGAnomics – Big Manufacturing Jump Amid Mid-Atlantic Region Report…

The potential for supply chain disruption as a result of China dealing with the Coronavirus, and almost a complete shutdown of their manufacturing economy, is looming heavy upon Wall Street multinationals invested in China.
However, tangentially related, as a result of USMCA we are now seeing signs of shifted investment into North America and increases in forecasts for U.S. manufacturing.

(Via CNBC) […] Early in the week, New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey for general business conditions posted a reading of 12.9, up 8 points from January and its best level since May. New orders surged to 22.1, the highest since September 2017, and shipments rose to 18.9, the best since November 2018.
On Thursday, the Philadelphia survey exploded 20 points higher to 36.7, the highest since February 2017. New orders hit their highest since May 2018. (more)

The Philadelphia FED tracks factory orders in eastern Pennsylvania, Southern New Jersey, and Delaware.  New orders in that region soared far higher than all expectations, reflecting a strong consumer-driven economy with ongoing purchases of durable goods.
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NEC Director Larry Kudlow Discusses Excellent "Blowout" Jobs Report….

National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears on Fox Business to discuss the excellent January jobs report.  Job gains and wage increases are all going in the right direction…. And Stuart Varney immediately asks: “do we need more immigration”?


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BLS Wage growth chart below [Table B3].
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Impeach This – Gallup: American Satisfaction Poll Highest Since January 2005…

As we start to head deeper into the 2020 presidential election year, there is some very good news for President Trump about how Americans rate their satisfaction; and some very bad news for Democrats who are trying to impeach this success.
According to the latest data from Gallup: “Americans’ average satisfaction rating for the 27 issues Gallup has tracked consistently since 2001 is now 47%. This is up three points from a year ago and is the highest since the January 2005 poll.”
In the measures of satisfaction covering the first three years of President Trump in office there are some remarkable increases in key measures:

(data link)

As President Trump prepares to deliver his State of the Union speech to congress, these results will likely provide some measurable data for him to highlight.  Satisfaction with the U.S. economy has jumped a whopping 22 percent since President Trump took office.
As noted above, the economy, national security, military and state of race relations all provide double-digit increases in American satisfaction during President Trump’s first three years in office.
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President Trump Delivers Remarks During USMCA Celebration – Warren, Michigan – (Video and Transcript)…

Earlier today President Trump traveled to Dana Incorporated, a manufacturing facility for axel housings and machined products in Warren, Michigan, to celebrate the signing of the USMCA trade agreement with American workers.  [Video and Transcript Below]


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[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: Okay, let’s get back to work. Come on. (Applause.) I love that song, but every once in a while, we have to get back to work. (Laughter.)

So I am very honored to be at Dana Incorporated, a tremendous company, a plant in Warren, Michigan. We’re very proud of Michigan. (Applause.) Dana has been around — I also like it because we happened to win here, so I was very happy with that. (Applause.) Very happy with that.

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Fourth Quarter GDP 2.1% – 2019 Full Year GDP Growth 2.3% – Secretary Wilbur Ross Discusses…

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released their first estimate of Q4 GDP growth today.  The BEA first estimate is 2.1 percent growth for the fourth quarter and 2.3 percent growth for the year. [Data Here]   The U.S. economy is now approximately $21.7 trillion.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appeared on Fox Business with Maria Bartiromo to discuss the ‘big picture’ outlook for the U.S. economy.  Strong employment, strong wage growth, strong consumer spending, and now the USMCA passage delivering the backdrop for domestic capital investment.   Good interview:


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The headwinds by Boeing and the GM strike had some negative impact.  However, 2019 was dominated by Wall Street multinational investors taking the ‘wait-n-see’ position on the China/Asia -vs- USMCA trade dynamic (manufacturing investment) overall.
The USMCA passage gives certainty to North American manufacturing investment.  The China ‘phase-one’ agreement allows time for re-positioning, and/or time to extract profits from prior investment.  A corporate decision to manufacture in China is now based on an entirely different set of considerations than 24 months ago…. ‘phase-one’ buys time but doesn’t reduce the long-term risk.  North America is now the place for investment stability.
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President Trump Remarks During USMCA Signing Ceremony – Video and Transcript…

Earlier today President Trump signed the historic USMCA trade agreement, making good on his 2016 campaign promise to replace the NAFTA trade agreement with a more balanced and reciprocal trade deal for the American people.  USMCA replaces the NAFTA agreement that resulted in the loss of millions of American jobs impacting hundreds of manufacturing communities across our county.
Amid the key changes is a closing of a loophole allowing Mexico and Canada to assemble components imported from Asia. The new agreement bolsters American workers and American manufacturers with content rules requiring origination of material in North America. [Video and Transcript Below]


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[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: Well, thank you very much. That’s beautiful music. Such talented musicians, and we appreciate it very much.
We have a tremendous — (applause) — we have a tremendous list of people here today. In fact, so long that if I announced every name, we’d be here for about three hours. (Laughter.) And we have to get back to business. Everybody does.
Please sit down. Please.
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