Earlier today President Trump attended a border security briefing in Arizona during an event to thank border enforcement and review the border wall.  [Video and Transcript]

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[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: Well, thank you very much. Great to be here. Beautiful runway. A little warmer than I’m used to, but that’s okay, Doug, right? We have a — I was just given a beautiful picture of the wall. That’s before and after. And that’s quite a difference: one area you walk over, you drive over, you do whatever you want, and other one you say, “Well, I guess we don’t get in.” Here’s another one — just given. That’s great. That’s a different section. Pretty amazing.

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In the economic balancing act toward China Larry Kudlow represents the good cop, Peter Navarro represents the bad cop and President Trump navigates the market responses.  Neither person is factually in conflict with the other; the nuance is in the expression and each person has a role to play.  Sometimes teeth, sometimes not. It depends on need.

Last night trade advisor Peter Navarro noted the U.S. position with China and trade is still in a state of serious conflict.  This is accurate, and a more confrontational posture has been expressed by President Trump.  Today Larry Kudlow moderates the Navarro position to lessen the Wall St. concern over a looming decoupling.  It’s all a dance.

The need for nuance becomes clear as we watch Stuart Varney pushing the Wall Street concern angle on behalf of U.S. multinationals. The administration does not want to spook the stock market while they deal with a China confrontation. WATCH:

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Kudlow represents the panda mask. Navarro represents the eagles claw. President Trump advances or retracts each position as he controls the market response.  The objective is a slow, steady, smiling decoupling that doesn’t unnerve anyone… but the direction is always toward the decoupling.

President Trump is delivering the proverbial economic death by a thousand paper cuts.

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White House Trade and Manufacturing Advisor Peter Navarro has a good discussion with Martha MacCallum about the economy, White House economic policy and the focus in the aftermath of the COVID crisis to reemphasize an industrial resurgence in the U.S.

As Navarro outlines the focus of the administration policy is on Main Street and driving the main street economy that overwhelmingly benefits middle-class workers.

That said, when questioned about President Trump’s recent tone toward China, Navarro hints toward what many expect… President Trump is going to deliver a very deliberate, very strategic, very focused and very painful economic blow to Beijing.  WATCH:

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On Thursday afternoon President Trump delivered remarks after a tour of the Ford Motor Company Rawsonville Components Plant in Michigan. [Video and Transcript Below]

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[Transcript] THE PRESIDENT: Thank you. Well, thank you very much. I like that dais very much, actually. That’s very special. Nice wood. Beautiful like the dashboards on your cars, Bill. Right?

MR. FORD: Absolutely.

THE PRESIDENT: Thank you. And I just heard you’re going to be having two more — two thousand more jobs right down the road for the Bronco, which is a big winner. That’s great. Fantastic job. Thank you very much, Bill.

MR. FORD: Thank you, sir.

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A visibly angered President Trump told Maria Bartiromo he “doesn’t want to talk to China right now” and expresses a more open opinion that we should just decouple from all economic attachment to China.  This is a seismic shift in tone toward Beijing.

All administration policy and economic influence is now targeted to remove Chinese manufacturing from the U.S. supply chain. President Trump and white house officials openly discussing a U.S. effort to decouple from China is a significant shift.

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President Trump has been creating a dual position for several years; this is very unique because it is the same strategy used by China.  By expressing a panda face, yet concealing the underlying dragon, President Trump’s policy to China is a mirror of themselves.

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U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and U.K. Secretary of State for International Trade Elizabeth Truss announced today [joint statement] the beginning of a series of fast-tracked trade negotiations toward a new free trade agreement. [USTR Release]

In the foreground is a trade agreement between the U.S. and the United Kingdom. However, in the more strategic background context these negotiations create leverage for the U.K. in their post-Brexit negotiations with the European Union. First from today:

LIGHTHIZER – […] The US negotiating team will be led by Dan Mullaney, Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Europe and the Middle East; and the UK negotiating team will be led by Oliver Griffiths, Director for US Negotiations at the Department for International Trade. Over 200 staff from U.S. and UK government agencies and departments are expected to take part in the negotiations.

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The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) advanced estimate and the result is a 4.8% decline in economic activity. [BEA Here]

The revised fourth quarter GDP shows the economy was growing at 2.1 percent prior to the COVID-19 shutdown.  The severity of the change in GDP reflects a severe drop in consumer spending, essentially bringing the economy to a halt in March as the entire nation went into lock-down.  As the BEA explains:

The decline in first quarter GDP was, in part, due to the response to the spread of COVID-19, as governments issued “stay-at-home” orders in March. This led to rapid changes in demand, as businesses and schools switched to remote work or canceled operations, and consumers canceled, restricted, or redirected their spending.

The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2020 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. (more)

Digging down into the details the data shows what we all have seen.  There is some specific data that is noteworthy in the tables.

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With the economy at a halt, and unemployment skyrocketing while various Wuhan Virus mitigation efforts are underway, President Trump has announced his intent to suspend all immigration.  We’re closed:

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In the background of lessons being learned from the COVID-19 pandemic, stay tuned for a new MAGA-minded small farm program in the agricultural industry similar in construct to how President Trump and Secretary Mnuchin created the parallel banking system using community banks and credit unions.  Domestic food security is national security.

Today President Trump and Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue revealed a $19 billion U.S. farm relief program which includes the Dept. of Agriculture purchasing $3 billion in farm products from the fresh supply chain to support those impacted by the collapse of the restaurant, hotel, school and cafeteria demand (food away from home).   WATCH:

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If you’ve been following our outlines on the food supply-chain issues, you’ll be well aware of what is causing the current farm crisis. {Go Deep} Secretary Perdue is stepping in to mitigate that impact and provide relief to farmers severely impacted by the supply chain disruption.

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Though the U.S. and Canada are not part of the “OPEC Plus” group, President Trump has  been leading negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Russia to broker a deal and stop their price war.  Today President Trump announces an agreement between the major petroleum exporting countries to curb oil production by approximately 10 million barrels per day:

Additionally, there was a loggerhead within the negotiations as Mexico did not want to cut their production by the requested amount of 400,000 barrels daily.  Mexico relies on oil as a large part of their economy. AMLO stated his economy could not withstand such a significant drop in state revenue.  Economic security is, after all, national security.

President Trump broke the OPEC+ stalemate by agreeing to decrease U.S. production by 300k/barrels allowing Mexico to drop a more manageable 100k/barrels.  Trump and AMLO reached an undisclosed agreement where Mexico will reimburse the U.S. later on.

I suspect the “reimbursement” will be more, well, strategically geopolitical than financial.  [*nudge-nudge*, *wink-wink*, *say-no-more/say-no-more*]  President Trump has an uncanny knack of collecting leverage for later, more strategic, purposes.  Just sayin’.

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