Presidential envoy Steve Witkoff deserves a great deal of credit for what followed in the aftermath of President Trump’s final elimination of the Iranian nuclear threat.  Throughout the 12-day war, Witkoff maintained a diplomatic connection to the Iranian delegation in order to position a ceasefire upon conclusion.

The Trump administration is now taking a more firm stance toward who in Iran they will accept negotiations with.  As noted by Secretary Rubio, the use of intermediaries has exhausted its usefulness.  While Qatar may play a role as an interlocutor to bridge the two sides, the time has come for direct face-to-face discussions with Iranian officials.

With the potential of a peace agreement and increased stability throughout the region, there is an opportunity for an expanded investment and economic zone throughout the middle east, not just in Iran.  As CTH noted regarding the threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, technically it is not the Iranian government who closes the strait, but rather the maritime insurance companies who refuse to underwrite an enlarged risk.  The same concept applies when the absence of conflict becomes the norm.  Steve Witkoff draws attention to this background context within his remarks.

An ancillary benefit in the Russia-Ukraine conflict comes from a very public display of FAFO outcomes.  None of the principle characters within NATO, the EU, the U.K nor Ukraine or Russia want to face the Godzilla FAFO strategy that President Trump is willing to deploy.

The reason why the NATO partners responded with great deference to President Trump in the Netherlands is no global observer wants to face Godzilla in FAFO mode, militarily or economically.  Even before the dust settled from 70 tons of massive ordnance detonation deep underground in Iran the leaders of the world knew things would be different now.

How different?  We saw the outcome at the Hague.

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I’m just going to outline this post as it is framed by Vice President JD Vance without anything…

JD Vance – “This is such a revealing clip. The American media is full of the least curious, least insightful people in our country.

To recap, an out of context, “low confidence” and incomplete intelligence report was selectively leaked to the media. The media reported on the findings without any real effort to figure out whether they represent any part of (much less the full) truth. The way the media has presented the report is contradicted by the IAEA, the Iranians themselves, and the administration’s political and defense leadership. More importantly, the media’s reports are contradicted by common sense.

[Vance, cont…] “To summarize: a dozen 30,000-pound bunker busters were dropped on Iran’s main nuclear site. (The other two sites that were targeted suffered heavy damage too). No one disputes they hit their targets. No one disputes the explosive or destructive power of the weapons. No one disputes that a week ago, Iran could have easily assembled a nuclear weapon and now they can’t.

The entire debate–even accepting the press’s dishonest framing–is not about whether Iran can now build a nuke. They can’t. It’s about how much rebuilding the Iranians would have to do in order to achieve a nuclear weapon. In other words, after a wildly successful military operation with no American casualties, the American media is trying to blame Donald Trump for the existence of facilities *that haven’t even been built yet.*

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President Trump and his national security team held a meeting with NATO Sec.-Gen. Mark Rutte during the 2025 NATO Summit in the Hague, Netherlands, and took questions from the media.

Interestingly, NATO Secretary Mark Rutte emphasizes the new commitment from Canada repeatedly.  As one of the worst offenders to adhere to their NATO obligations, and against the backdrop of tariffs and targeted trade negotiations, obviously Canada is trying to position themselves against the Trump economic agenda.

Secondly, the emphasis is again on the damage assessment from the U.S. bombing of the Iran nuclear facilities.  This is critical for President Trump to break free of the intelligence community control over U.S. foreign policy expanded in the next outline.  WATCH:

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President Trump has responded with a “thank you” to Iran for their forewarned retaliation; noting he will “enthusiastically encourage” Israel to seek peace now.  Via Truth Social:

PRESIDENT TRUMP – “Iran has officially responded to our Obliteration of their Nuclear Facilities with a very weak response, which we expected, and have very effectively countered. There have been 14 missiles fired — 13 were knocked down, and 1 was “set free,” because it was headed in a nonthreatening direction. I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done. Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their “system,” and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE. I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured. Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA” (source)

PRESIDENT TRUMP – “I’d like to thank the Highly Respected Emir of Qatar for all that he has done in seeking Peace for the Region. Regarding the attack today at the American Base in Qatar, I am pleased to report that, in addition to no Americans being killed or wounded, very importantly, there have also been no Qataris killed or wounded. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” (source)

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A few surface points. The time of day, just after 8pm local reflects an “attack” intended to be intercepted, reviewed and assessed. The target U.S. base in Qatar, an intermediary and friendly geopolitical ally to Iran, reflects coordination to give optics of retaliation in name only. No doubt Iran coordinated this retaliatory strike with Qatar. The scale, 6 easily intercepted missiles.

In summary, a response from Iran intended for domestic consumption to give/save regional face for Persians.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards, in an official statement:

In response to the attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, we carried out a powerful and devastating missile strike against a strategic asset – the largest American airbase in the Middle East. Any repetition of U.S. aggression will accelerate the collapse of the American military establishment in the region.

Qatar condemns the puff-n-bluster ballistic missile attack by Iran on U.S. Al Udeid Air Base, adding that all of the missiles were intercepted and that there are no reported injuries so far.  If Iran does it again, they will be met with a more strongly worded letter.

In return Iran’s top security body tells Qatar: “THIS ACTION DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO ‘OUR FRIENDLY AND BROTHERLY’ NEIGHBOUR QATAR”

Iran’s military claimed it had carried out a “devastating and powerful” missile attack on the Al Udeid U.S. military base in Doha, but Qatar said the missiles were intercepted. Qatari officials said the nation reserves the right to respond directly and in accordance with international law after Iran tried to strike the base.

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At 8:00am this morning Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Gen. Dan Caine and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth held a press conference at the Pentagon to brief media on “Operation Midnight Hammer,” the Iranian nuclear strikes. WATCH:

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Following what President Trump is calling a successful bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites, President Trump will address the nation tonight at 10:00pm ET.  Livestream Links Below:

According to media reports, six 30,000 lb. massive ordinance penetrators (MOPs) were dropped by B-2 stealth bombers on the Fordow facility, and 30 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles targeting Iran’s Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities, fired by submarines.

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Via President Trump on Truth Social:

[SOURCE]

UPDATE:

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While it is a strong win, the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals decision to fully stay the lower court order was not unexpected.  The temporary restraining order issued by District Judge Charles Breyer was obviously political and legally weak, very weak.

The Ninth CCA simply affirmed that a violent crisis was afoot in California; federal officials and buildings were under attack; the local police and state government did nothing to stop it; so President Trump took legally authorized action to intervene, and took control of the national guard. [SEE RULING HERE]

The decision is not complicated.  The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals unanimously concluded President Trump lawfully exercised his authority in federalizing control of the guard.  The ruling affirmed the Trump administration presented enough evidence to show it had a rationale for doing so, citing violent acts by protesters.

“The undisputed facts demonstrate that before the deployment of the National Guard, protesters ‘pinned down’ several federal officers and threw ‘concrete chunks, bottles of liquid, and other objects’ at the officers. Protesters also damaged federal buildings and caused the closure of at least one federal building. And a federal van was attacked by protesters who smashed in the van’s windows,” the court wrote. “The federal government’s interest in preventing incidents like these is significant.”

The court also found that even if the federal government failed to notify the governor of California before federalizing the National Guard as required by law, Newsom had no power to veto the president’s order.  A common sense straightforward interpretation of the law.

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The White House is now saying Iran has everything they need to build a nuclear weapon, the only remaining factor is when to assemble it. “Iran has all that it needs to achieve a nuclear weapon,” said White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. “All they need is a decision from the supreme leader to do that.”

Press Secretary Leavitt then announced President Trump will make the decision to conduct U.S. military strikes within two weeks. “Based on the fact that there is a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place in the near future, I will make my decision of whether or not to go within the next two weeks,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Thursday.

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