Coming out of the pandemic related disruption, the larger story of U.S. manufacturing has been an odd blend of good data and bad data depending on the sector. While some manufacturing was growing as a result of clearing supply chains, other sectors of manufacturing remained soft.
In total, the full supply chain rebound should have completed around the end of the third quarter, beginning of the fourth quarter of 2022.
However, simultaneous with the correction within the supply chain(s), consumer purchase activity began contracting.
The consumer pullback led to very weak holiday sales last year, and a combination of increased inventories of finished goods.
Keep in mind that Maersk overseas shipping noted significant drops in orders for the movement of material in the third quarter of last year. Considering the lag, the previously noted inventory buildup in combination with the drops in unit sales of durable goods, would generally mean lower manufacturing purchase order activity Q4 (’22) and Q1 (’23). This reality is reflected in the actual data as reported by The Wall Street Journal:
(Via WSJ) – […] New orders for manufactured goods contracted for the sixth straight month through February, according to surveys by the Institute for Supply Management. Manufacturing output is down 1.7% from its postpandemic peak in May 2022, according to a three-month moving average of Federal Reserve data. And the Commerce Department’s measure of civilian capital equipment orders, excluding aircraft—the building blocks of business—was down 3.4% in January from its recent high in November 2021, after adjusting for inflation.
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