Big Panda has a problem, and his name is President Donald Trump.

CTH went (proactively) directly into the heart of the Chinese Potemkin Village, much like my trip to Russia, to specifically see what the reality is on the ground in the region of all Beijing influence.  Where the East meets the West you will find a hot mess of propaganda, kept in place by widespread geopolitical pretending.

Never was that reality clearer, than in the example of the retaliatory tariffs announced in response to President Trump’s trade tariffs.

(Via AP) – China said it would implement a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas products as well as a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery and large-engine cars imported from the U.S. The tariffs would take effect next Monday. {link}

First, tariffs on energy products are pure propaganda.  Coal, LNG and crude oil are fungible. In the case of China the energy products arrive from a global market, there is no identifiable way to tariff American energy products.  This is not like Canada where the Candian energy products are entirely dependent on pipelines into the USA, and therefore unavoidably easy to tariff by Trump.

Chairman Xi gets most of the Chinese imported energy resources from Russia, specifically Coal, LNG and Crude Oil.  So, this subset of tariffs against American energy products is pure propaganda, essentially moot.

You know who buys USA-made “large-engine cars” (Chevy Tahoe, GMC Yukon and Ford Raptors) in China?  People well connected to the Chinese Communist Party, that’s who.  If you are not a member of the elite ruling class in China, you do not buy large-engine cars.   So, what exactly is the intent on this one?  The target is a domestic internal political apparatus, in combination with narrative creation that Beijing believes will create the biggest splash headlines in the West.  That’s it.  Again, pure political propaganda.

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Oh, this is a little funny.  The vertically challenged Ukrainian president who dresses like a UPS driver, is now likely to make a deal with President Trump where Ukraine puts up their “rare earth minerals” as collateral for taxpayer funds received by the United States.

Previously President Trump remarked that U.S. leadership were “stupid” for not securing Afghanistan future mineral contracts in exchange for U.S. military operations. Talking about the Ukrainian expectation from the oval office earlier today, President Trump outlined his expectations that Volodymyr Zelenskyy put up the rare earth minerals as collateral for continued financial support.  WATCH:

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WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump on Monday indicated that he wants to reach an agreement with Ukraine to gain access to the country’s rare earth materials as a condition for continuing U.S. support for its war against Russia.

Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, Trump complained that the U.S. had sent more in military and economic assistance to Ukraine than its European partners, adding, “We’re looking to do a deal with Ukraine where they’re going to secure what we’re giving them with their rare earth and other things.”

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Earlier today, President Trump signed several executive orders recognizing and structuring ongoing efforts including the creation of a USA “Sovereign Wealth Fund.”   Full Video below:

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WASHINGTON DC – […] The new wealth fund, which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters could be formed in the next 12 months, could be used to finance major government projects and fund strategic investments in critical areas like supply chains. Sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East and Europe are among the largest institutional investors in the world, providing massive pools of capital for Wall Street firms and the U.S. tech industry.

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Both Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum have agreed to terms established by President Trump to combat drug trafficking and secure their perspective borders.

Mexico agrees to put 10,000 troops on the USA border to immediately begin security efforts. Canada agrees to bolster their 10,000-border patrol and security officers, establish a joint task force to combat organized crime, create a new intelligence directive on organized crime and fentanyl, and appoint a Fentanyl Czar.

[Source]

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio is traveling through Panama, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Guatemala and the Dominican Republic as he represents President Trump and the new administration.  He’s doing great.

Today, Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered remarks to reporters in El Salvador discussing his role as Acting Director of USAID after President Trump and Elon Musk moved to incorporate USAID into the State Department.  Secretary Rubio repeated that USAID must align with U.S. foreign policy and the national interests of the U.S. government.

Citing the “uncooperative” nature of the USAID leadership acting as an independent entity, Secretary Rubio announced he is now Acting Director of USAID with the intention of removing all elements who operate against the direct U.S. interests he outlined.  Additionally, Secretary Rubio affirmed the positive nature of President Trump’s call with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum [Details soon]. WATCH:

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WASHINGTON, Feb 2 (Reuters) – The Trump administration over the weekend put on administrative leave dozens more staff at U.S. Agency for International Development, three sources familiar with the move said, as it moves to abolish the agency’s independence and bring it under the control of the State Department.

Nearly 30 career staff in the agency’s Legislative and Public Affairs bureau lost access overnight to their emails, the sources said, bringing the total number of senior USAID career staff who have been put on leave over the past week close to 100.

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Knowing the severe ramifications likely and taking a proactive approach toward root-cause analysis, CTH attended the ASEAN summit to gauge how Asia was likely to respond to Trump term-2 and the looming possibility of a severe nationalist approach toward a renewal of USA manufacturing. The untangling of the Beijing Belt & Road initiative was a key topic of interest noted.  [Watch Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines.]

Secretary of State Marco Rubio traveled to Panama this weekend to express the position of President Donald Trump as it pertains to Chinese influence over the maritime transit gateway known as the Panama Canal. Following the meeting with President José Raúl Mulino, the government of Panama has announced they will no longer support China’s Belt & Road initiative.

Photographic message received; or the one-time Rubio needed to be shorter, you decide.

STATE DEPT – Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino and Foreign Minister Javier Martínez-Acha today in Panama City to address critical regional and global challenges. Secretary Rubio informed President Mulino and Minister Martínez-Acha that President Trump has made a preliminary determination that the current position of influence and control of the Chinese Communist Party over the Panama Canal area is a threat to the canal and represents a violation of the Treaty Concerning the Permanent Neutrality and Operation of the Panama Canal. Secretary Rubio made clear that this status quo is unacceptable and that absent immediate changes, it would require the United States to take measures necessary to protect its rights under the Treaty.

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President Trump arrives back in Washington DC and holds a presser on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews.  WATCH:

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These remarks will be the headlines tomorrow.

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In December of 2016 when we discussed the possibility of President Trump’s then new and unique tariff approach, we predicted negligible impact – if any at all.  It was a theory at the time, but predicated on the looming possibility that impacted nations would inevitably devalue their currency. It was the currency devaluation, in combination with directed subsidies, that would offset any tariff impact to U.S. consumers.

By the time we got to December 2019, we were no longer discussing theory.  Deflation due to currency devaluation, subsidy and a rising dollar actually became reality.  The lookback data (2017 through 2019) proved the tariffs did not raise prices. In fact, the opposite happened, we were importing broad-based deflation.

Now it’s 2025 and again China is hit with tariffs, along with Canada and Mexico.  With history as a reference, watch the Canadian Dollar and the Mexican Peso.  Initial impact shows the same thing repeating again. The U.S. dollar is rising in value, and the Canadian dollar is dropping quickly.

If this trend holds, the 25% tariffs against Canada (and Mexico) will have minimal impact, if any at all.  The lowered value Canadian dollar and Mexican peso will work as an offset and imports will be paid with higher value dollars.  Depending on the scale of what happens in the next few weeks, there is a strong possibility Canada might have just walked into a trap set by Trump.

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President Trump’s Border Czar, Tom Homan, appears on Fox News Sunday to talk about the massive drop (-93%) in attempted border crossers and the success of the current deportation operation.  Homan also outlines the intended use of Guantanamo Bay for the “worst of the worst” detainees as a matter of efficiency and expediency.

Then at the 4:48 point of the interview, a bombshell.  Tom Homan responding to a question about the cartels setting up positions inside the USA for drug and sex trafficking offices, says “I’ve gotta be careful.. {pause} ..let me just say, we’re involved”….  WATCH:

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During a Fox News interview, Senator Lindsey Graham says he is a yes on RFK Jr, Kash Patel and now Tulsi Gabbard, specifically because the latter has now assured him, she will support FISA-702 warrantless searches of U.S. citizen communication.  Senator Graham states falsely the 702 authorities only pertain to foreign nationals.  Watch how he says it, PROMPTED:

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Remember what I said about Kash Patel being the firewall selected by the Senate to make the American people drop their pitchforks and torches? Listen to Senator Graham through that protective prism and you can hear exactly that approach.

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