The Commerce Department November retail sales data was release today [DATA HERE] – [DETAIL pdf HERE].  The top line issue is a shocking drop in retail sales for November in key categories that align with previous discussion of inflation spending priorities for all U.S. consumers.

Before getting to the data, one point is critical to remember.  The commerce department sales figures are based on dollars spent. This point is important, because the items being purchased have inflation within them.  When prices are higher due to inflation, sales figures should be higher due to higher prices.  Ex. If there is an 8% increase in retail price, but only a 4% increase in retail sales, that means less stuff is being sold.  [Less units sold at a higher price gives the illusion of an increase in sales.]

Despite the start of the traditional holiday sales and shopping period, the total sales growth in November was 0.3% over October [Column A].  Factoring in inflation during the same month to month comparison at 0.9%, you can tell that overall in November there was a drop in units sold across the total of retail sales outlets.

A drop in sales at a time when holiday shopping should be taking place is concerning.  However, the sales reality aligns with the employment data last week showing a drop of 20,000 workers in the retail sector for November.  Put them together, and the picture shows retailers did not need employees, because consumers are not spending.

If we look deeper into the November sales figures, we can see that a contraction in discretionary spending is the primary issue. Electronics (-4.6%), Department Stores (-5.4%) and even online sales at ZERO.  We can also see a direct correlation in comparative inflation impact within the sales data for November 2021 when compared to November 2020 [Column B].

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The first words that crossed my mind were “SERIOUSLY?!”   Joe Biden’s National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, is married to Attorney General Merrick Garland’s legal counsel at the DOJ?….  What the…

The same Jake Sullivan who was one of Hillary Clinton’s foot soldiers, a foreign policy advisor pushing the fraudulent Trump-Russia conspiracy theory, is now Joe Biden’s national security advisor.  That was always sketchy by itself.  However, to discover that Sullivan’s wife, Margaret Goodlander, is the legal counsel to Attorney General Merrick Garland, opens up an entire world of conflict issues.

As noted by Chuck Ross, Attorney General Merrick Garland is being advised by Jake Sullivan’s wife and overseeing the John Durham criminal probe, which is looking into the role of Jake Sullivan in the construct of the fabricated Trump-Russia conspiracy, the use of the FBI as a political tool, and Sullivan’s lies in testimony to congress.

(Washington Free Beacon) – A top adviser to Attorney General Merrick Garland is facing calls to recuse herself from the Justice Department’s investigation of the Trump-Russia probe, which has looked into the actions of her husband, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. (read more)

The intemperate Wyoming Representative Liz Cheney is on a hate-filled kamikaze mission to attack the base of the political party she abhors. {Direct Rumble Link Here}

Previously, Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski set the low bar for contempt against the Tea Party movement, however, this week Liz Cheney says ‘hold my beer’ and goes all in against the MAGA base.  Ugly is as ugly does – inside and outside.

(WaPo) – Rep. Liz Cheney’s disclosures of intriguing Jan. 6 text messages between Mark Meadows and both Donald Trump Jr. and Fox News personalities are the big news in the committee’s investigation right now. But don’t lose sight of what Cheney said immediately after she read those texts aloud.” (more)

Deep State alum Ms. Liz Cheney is desperately trying to use her position on the ridiculous January 6th committee to gain position inside the DC system.  As a person with no redeeming qualities, the DC swamp is about the only place where her unlikable lawfare skills still have some marketing viability.

As the Washington Post notes, Cheney is desperate to attach some element of criminal lawbreaking to President Trump.   Cheney was pointing to a specific criminal statute — a felony, 18 U.S. Code § 1512 — that she suggests President Donald Trump violated.

Cheney’s comment matches the language of the statute. It states, “Whoever corruptly … obstructs, influences, or impedes any official proceeding, or attempts to do so, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than 20 years, or both.” That law defines an “official proceeding” as including “a proceeding before the Congress.”

Is there a more self-centered, arrogant, smug and narcissistic member of the current Republican Party?  I cannot think of one.

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Reuters is reporting on an interesting dynamic within the vaccine mandate as it pertains to Amtrak.  Reading between the lines tells us something very specific about this vaccine mandate that we have discussed here, and it’s starting to show.

The article itself points to how Amtrak is suspending their vaccine mandate as a result of the federal courts blocking enforcement of any mandate pending litigation.  From their perspective as a federal contractor, Amtrak is now in a position to cease the vaccine requirement until the legal issues are resolved.  However, there’s an element touched upon that needs to be considered.

First the article (the emphasis is mine):

WASHINGTON, Dec 14 (Reuters) – U.S. passenger railroad Amtrak said on Tuesday it will temporarily suspend a vaccine mandate for employees and now no longer expects to be forced to cut some service in January. In a memo seen by Reuters, Amtrak Chief Executive Bill Flynn said the railroad would allow employees who were not vaccinated to get tested.

Currently, fewer than 500 active Amtrak employees are not in compliance. Last week, the railroad told Congress it anticipated “proactively needing to temporarily reduce some train frequencies across our network” because of the mandate.

Flynn said 95.7% of Amtrak’s 17,000 employees are either fully vaccinated or have an accommodation — and including employees with one dose 97.3% of employees are in compliance.

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Finally!  Good grief, it’s been a long wait to see someone on the TV pointing out the obvious.

CNBC’s Steve Liesman points out what all the financial pundits keep ignoring.

The price of raw material at origination is still climbing…. which means the prices of intermediate manufacturing goods will keep climbing… which means the prices of finished goods (to wholesalers) will keep climbing…..  which means consumer prices will keep climbing.   WATCH:

♦Here’s the kicker.  The rate of raw material price increases are still higher than the rate of intermediate price increases, which are still higher than the rate of price increases in finished goods, which are still higher than the rate of price increases in consumer goods (retail).

As long as the rate of price increase for raw material, the very first step in the supply chain, remains higher than the rate of the price increase for the next step in the process, then you can guarantee future prices will go up.  It’s a simple and commonsense way to look forward when evaluating inflation.

If the stuff starts at a higher price (day one), the end product at day 90 will be at a higher price than today.  This is how you can tell that inflation is not slowing down.  The first sign of inflation easing is when the rate of inflation for raw material is lower than the rate of inflation in the next step.

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This is a little interesting.  According to The Telegraph [Tweet Link], the ‘scientific data’ is showing that young vaccinated people are the source carriers for the latest Omicron variant.  {Telegraph Article, Paywall}

What makes this interesting is both the timing and sequence.

The “Delta” variant surfaced and spread during the vaccination program for people over 40 years old.

The “Omicron” variant surfaced and spread during the vaccination program for people under 40 years old.

It’s almost as if… the vaccination and boosters are what creates the variant.

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We said it was happening {Go Deep}, and it is.  Last month CTH put the preparation window at 60 days +/- depending on region.  That window is now around 30 days before the next spike in inflation shows up from cumulative costs snowballing throughout the supply chain. The “producer price index” is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate and Final.

The final product inflation rate in July (reported in August) was alarming at 7.8%. However, we warned it would get worse. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) then released stunning price data for October [DATA Here], showing an even more dramatic 8.6% price increase in final demand. More intense warnings shared.

Today, we get the November BLS Result [DATA Here], and unfortunately the results are showing what was expected.  The cumulative costs of massive increases in energy prices are building into the supply at an astonishing rate.  The November data shows a rate of wholesale final goods inflation at 9.6%, the largest single month comparative rate increase in history.

The bureau even went back and revised/increased the August price index from 7.8 to 8.4 percent, and revised/increased the October figure from 8.6 to 8.8 percent.  The average monthly price increase is almost a full percent… every month.  It looks like the BLS backward revisions are an attempt to smooth down the rate of increase.

(BLS) – “The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.8 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.6 percent in each of the 3 prior months. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 9.6 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.” (more)

I modified Table A (final demand product pricing), taking out some of the noise to make it a little easier to see the big picture of what is happening.

When you see the wholesale level of prices almost double the increase in consumer level inflation rate, you can predict that consumer prices will likely go even higher.  Future finished goods, at a retail level, will carry the current wholesale price increase.

Stuff costs a lot now… and because the inbound stuff to make the finished goods is still climbing in price…. stuff is about to cost even more.   You can see this in the inflation rate of intermediate goods which I have highlighted below.

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I’m not confident that Joe Manchin will ultimately hold the line on more spending; however, it is interesting that on the same day Manchin is reported to be casting doubt on more Joe Biden social spending {LINK}, the Washington Post published a hitjob on him around his family finances {LINK}.

Accepting there are no coincidences in politics, it would appear the intelligence agencies are firing a warning shot against Senator Manchin based on his financial connections to the West Virginia coal industry.

(New York Times) – WASHINGTON — Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, the most prominent Democratic holdout on President Biden’s $2.2 trillion social safety net, climate and tax bill, cast fresh doubt on Monday on his party’s plans to speed the measure through the Senate before Christmas, saying he still had grave concerns about how it would affect the economy.

Mr. Manchin outlined his skepticism before speaking by telephone about the bill with Mr. Biden, a discussion that aides to both later characterized as positive. After the call, Mr. Manchin, who represents West Virginia, did not rule out the possibility of supporting the measure this month. He said that “anything is possible here” when asked about a vote before Christmas, and that he was still “engaged” in conversations with the White House.

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Comrades, December is a time of joy and festive gatherings at the famous German Christmas markets. However, the COVID madness has caused the worst in government authority to surface. Not even Santa Claus is immune from the control efforts.

Video has surfaced of Santa Claus being arrested at the Stralsund Christmas Market for the crime of not wearing a mask outdoors in public. WATCH:

https://youtu.be/3YBd1FqvZUc

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Madness, all of it.

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When New York’s original vaccine mandate for healthcare workers was announced, it included an exemption for religious reasons.  However, when the administration changed hands, Governor Hochul removed the religious exemption. A lawsuit was filed.  A federal appeals court loss brought the plaintiffs to the Supreme Court requesting an injunction.

Today, the request from the 20 plaintiffs was rejected by the Supreme Court as referred by Justice Sotomayor who covers the New York region.  Justices Alito, Gorsuch, and Thomas dissented and would have provide the injunctive relief.  However, Chief Justice John Roberts, Amy Coney-Barrett, and Brett Kavanaugh sided with the liberal wing and denied the request.  [Full pdf Decision Here]

Thomas, Alito and Gorsuch wrote in their 14-page dissent that Governor Hochul’s record in the case “practically exudes suspicion of those who hold unpopular religious beliefs,” adding, “That alone is sufficient to render the mandate unconstitutional as applied to these applicants.”

Unfortunately, the alignment of Justices Roberts, Barrett and Kavanaugh with the left wing of the court makes future constitutional appeals around the vaccine mandate look increasingly tenuous.  Justice Kavanaugh and Justice Barrett have been big disappointments.