Our dear friend Sharon always reminds us, “Those whose motives are based on deception, will always find an audience willing to be deceived.”  That, my friends, is the current status of the Republican party watchers and one of the primary reasons this little corner of the internet, The Last Refuge, was formed.

We accept things as they are, not as we would wish them to be and never as we would pretend them to be.   Pretending is an endless quest akin to convincing. Those who operate in the world of political pretense expend an exhaustive amount of energy in constant vigilance against those who speak plain truths.

The House of Representatives has adjourned until 10pm tonight, when another vote will be taken, as outlined by the design of the Kevin McCarthy supporters.

Why adjourn?  Why return at 10:00pm on a Friday evening?  Simply, because the McCarthy team is counting on several House members (mostly Democrats) not being in attendance for the quorum, facilitating a lower threshold of the vote to achieve a majority.

435/434 members present = 218 votes needed
433/432 members present = 217 votes needed
431/430 members present = 216 votes needed
429/428 members present = 215 votes needed
etc.

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The twelfth ballot round ended up with Kevin McCarthy receiving 214 votes of support, fourteen more than previous ballot rounds.  McCarthy needs 218 votes to succeed (if all members are present).

The following group of 14 Republicans changed their vote to support Kevin McCarthy on the 12th ballot:

Rep. Dan Bishop (N.C.), Rep.-elect Josh Brecheen (Okla.), Rep. Michael Cloud (Texas), Rep. Andrew Clyde (Ga.), Rep. Byron Donalds (Fla.), Rep. Paul Gosar (Ariz.),Rep.-elect Anna Paulina Luna (FL), Rep. Mary Miller (Ill.), Rep. Ralph Norman (S.C.), Rep.-elect Andy Ogles (Tenn.), Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), Rep.-elect Keith Self (Texas), and Rep. Victoria Spartz (IN) all voted to support Kevin McCarthy.

The Holdouts are:

Rep. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), Rep.-elect Eli Crane (Ariz.), Rep. Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Rep. Bob Good (Va.), Rep. Andy Harris (Md.) and Rep. Matt Rosendale (Mont.)

aka “The Magnificent Seven”

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Day #4 of the House effort to elect a new speaker will continue today with no one asking why only 20 members want to change the rules.  The rules are problematic for 20+ members who have refused to vote through eleven ballots for McCarthy, which begs the question.  Why do 200 republicans accept giving McCarthy all the power to determine legislative business?

The House returns to session for what is expected to be McCarthy’s 12th attempt to win the gavel. According to Politico, “the GOP leader and his leadership team convened a conference call Friday morning to update members on the status of negotiations, hours after he appeared to gather some momentum late Thursday by hashing out specific concessions to hardline members of the GOP conference — offers that his allies were hopeful would move votes in his direction.

But enormous uncertainty lingered Friday morning, as members of the freedom Caucus had yet to commit their support to McCarthy and a handful of other holdouts continued to signal their opposition to him. Absences on the GOP side of the aisle could scramble things further, with McCarthy backer Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) predicting at least three during Friday’s likely balloting.  WATCH:

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During his opening monologue tonight, Fox News host Tucker Carlson outlines the attacks against those opposing Kevin McCarthy for House Speaker.

Tucker Carlson asks why the visibility of democracy in action ends up with DC insiders claiming the American political structure is going to collapse just because Kevin McCarthy is not being anointed as House Speaker.   Those in opposition to McCarthy are deemed as Russian operatives, domestic terrorists and corrupt sketchy voices belonging to various shady patriotic movements that have threatened the domestic tranquility of the nation.   WATCH:

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Representative Matt Rosendale (R-MT) railed against Congress’s “broken system” as he nominated Byron Donalds for the 9th round of voting in the race for Speaker of the House on Thursday.

During his remarks, Rosendale outlined the power dynamic and rules system, what he calls “the nasty little secret, put into place by prior leadership that has corrupted the institution and made the voices of individual members irrelevant to the activity within the lower chamber.  Rosendale outlines how changing these rules and the power dynamic of the few is what the protest against Kevin McCarthy is all about.  WATCH:

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The eleventh round of votes for a House Speaker ended the same way as the ten before it.

Ballot round #11 fails. No majority speaker elected.

Rather than attempting to continue voting amid a landscape of futility, and without Kevin McCarthy accepting defeat in his life quest to be Speaker of The House, the chamber voted to adjourn.

Initially a voice vote on the adjournment failed, the democrats won and wanted to force the republicans to continue.  However, an electronic accounting of the yeas and nays resulted in a majority decision to adjourn until noon tomorrow, Friday, January 6th.

The backroom bartering and negotiations will now commence; drinks will be had, promises will be made, votes will be purchased, and perhaps a successful path toward a republican speaker will be found.  On the upside, for the past three days no taxpayer monies have been spent.

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That slow grinding creak you hear in the background; that’s the U.S. economic engine running without oil and beginning that slowdown phase just before it stutters and stalls completely.  Alas, the pretending continues…

As noted by the Wall Street Journal, an economic gaslighting institution with a central mission to maintain pretenses, “business surveys show U.S. factory activity declined in December, the Institute for Supply Management and S&P Global both said this week. Separately, S&P Global said Thursday that U.S. services-sector businesses reported a decline in output for the third month running in December.” This comes as “U.S. imports dropped more, by 6.4% on the month, as Americans cut back on holiday-related purchases, including items from other countries such as computers and autos.”

Keep in mind, November retail sales—which included consumer spending at stores, online and at restaurants—fell 0.6% from the prior month for their biggest decline of 2022, according to the Commerce Department. Manufacturing output declined in November as well, the Fed reported, while U.S. home sales fell for a record 10th straight month.

Into this mix of economic metrics, driven by a collapse in disposable consumer income and high energy prices, now we begin to see the number one business expense being curtailed.

(Market Watch) […] Amazon.com Inc layoffs will affect more than 18,000 employees, the highest reduction tally revealed in the past year at a major technology company as the industry pares back amid economic uncertainty.

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The tenth round of ballot counting continues in the House chamber. However, it looks like an 11th ballot will be necessary as Kevin McCarthy has failed, yet again, to gain the support of 21 House Republican holdouts.

Inside the beltway rumors have surfaced that after the 9th failed attempt, groundhog McCarthy exited the chambers, stepped outside, saw his shadow and thus predicted another six weeks of ballot counting was likely.  As noted by Politico, “the California Republican fell short in his bid for the speaker’s gavel in seventh, eighth, ninth, and now tenth ballots — a history-making stalemate that has paralyzed the party’s new majority.”

WASHINGTON DC – […] The next steps for McCarthy are unclear. GOP leadership is mulling trying to adjourn the chamber to give McCarthy more time to hold meetings and solidify a deal that they hope will win him the speaker’s gavel. But such a move would require help from Democrats or near unimity from Republicans, who only narrowly won an unruly vote Wednesday to adjourn for the night.

And Republicans are still trying to figure out if the glimmers of hope over the potential deal are just a mirage. McCarthy met nearly every one of the holdouts’ demands, but it’s not clear it will be enough to get him across the finish line. And in a slim majority, he can’t afford to alienate the other side of his conference, where centrists and institutionalists already have heartburn over the offered deal. (read more)

Voting continues.  Meme creators continue working overtime.

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Most people are unaware that outside lobbyist groups hold the power over the internal dynamic.  In addition to internal financial systems, each congressperson is aligned with a lobbyist group that pays for their political election efforts, sort of like a corporate sponsor in a professional sports team.  Ultimately the sponsors determine what issues the politician supports.  This is the business end of DC politics.

According to Politico, the Congressional Leadership Fund (team McCarthy) has come to an agreement with the Club for Growth Fund (team not McCarthy) and worked out a deal the representatives may be permitted to support.  The deal “includes a vote on term limits for members, more seats for Freedom Caucus members on the powerful House Rules Committee and allowing a single member to force a vote on ousting the speaker.”  The voting continues today.

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Representative Matt Gaetz (R-FL) is one of the primary voices against Representative Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) for the House speaker role. Gaetz appeared on Fox News to discuss the background issues with Kevin McCarthy and the lack of trust held by the group opposing him.

Additionally, Gaetz refuses to accept the criticism from former House republicans who created the crisis of confidence within the American electorate.  When challenged about the specific criticism, Gaetz does a good job putting context to the failed republican efforts over the past 15 years.  The video is a good encapsulation of the current status.  WATCH (prompted to 02:29):

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The House will reconvene at Noon Thursday to continue the process of trying to nominate a speaker.

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