This week Neil Oliver talks about the new Utopia we are being instructed to accept.  A world in which there are no rights, only permissions.

Everything including the modification of diets and the eating of bugs and fake meat; to the type of carbon footprint home we are permitted, to the energy we may use or the acceptable car we must drive; permissions, assuming of course, our social media profile and accompanying score is in line with regulatory inspection.

Nope.  Not happening.  There are more of us than them.  We will not eat the bugs.  WATCH: 

[Transcript] – What’s being done to us, or tried on us at least, isn’t working … and it isn’t working and won’t work because what we’re being pushed to accept as the new world makes no sense. The supposed utopia we’re being promised – or, rather, having rammed down our throats – is one in which there is no universal truth, no absolute and trusted truth, but only personal truth that trumps all else.

There are to be no facts like those observed by biologists, just as a for instance, and only feelings based on personal preferences that change from day to day. It will be a world in which we might have no inalienable rights, rights we are born with – just permissions granted one by one by the state … and then only if we do as we are told and do without cars and warm homes and eat our bugs and fake meat and take our medicine on demand. It is a world in which 2+2 might equal 5 if some faceless, unelected bureaucrat says it does – and if any of us says no, 2+2 always and only equals 4, then our bank accounts won’t give us any money until we accept our arithmetical and moral error.

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Two weeks ago, a NATO blockade of Kaliningrad, an outpost of Russia, was triggered when Lithuania blocked the transport of goods through Suwalki corridor.  According to the Lithuanian justification they were following through on NATO sanctions against Russian goods.  However, the escalation was very provocative toward Russia and discussions between Russia and NATO countries were tense.

Apparently, Germany was increasingly concerned the blockade was creating a scenario where Russian military were going to escort the transport of railroad goods to Kaliningrad, and that would lead to escalated military conflict with Russia. “German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is eager to avoid unnecessary provocations of Russia. He has repeatedly emphasized that he would do everything in his power to ensure that NATO does not become a party to the war between Russia and Ukraine. German soldiers are stationed in Lithuania and could become involved in a possible conflict.” {link}

The EU has now dropped the blockade and the transport of goods between Kaliningrad and Russia will resume.  The EU decision was made before the NATO meeting in Madrid concluded; however, it looks like NATO postponed the announcement until after Biden left in order to save face on the reversal of position.

GERMANY – The European Commission plans to issue a clarification that will allow Russia to resume sending supplies to the exclave of Kaliningrad via Lithuania. Berlin supports the idea, but some in Vilnius are not pleased.

[…] The move will put an end to a disagreement that had not only been a significant source of tension between Russia and Brussels – but also exposed deep rifts within the EU regarding the correct approach to Moscow.

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It is very curious timing in this article from Newsweek, containing massive geopolitical implications, using identified Saudi Arabia sources, would come in advance of Joe Biden’s visit to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Is this strategic geopolitical pressure from Saudi leader Mohamed Bin Salman (MbS) ahead of the meeting with Biden; or is this a genuine possibility that looms as likely?  If the former, then Joe Biden is being geopolitically slow roasted by Saudi Arabia for his previous disparagements and ideological hypocrisy in his visit.  If it is the latter, well, then the tectonic plates of international trade, banking and economics are about to shift directly under our American feet.

We have been closely monitoring the signs of a global cleaving around the energy sector taking place.  Essentially, western governments’ following the “Build Back Better” climate change agenda which stops using coal, oil and gas to power their economic engine, while the rest of the growing economic world continues using the more efficient and traditional forms of energy to power their economies.

This article from Newsweek is exactly about this dynamic with Saudi Arabia now potentially joining the BRICS team.

NEWSWEEK – Finland and Sweden’s green light to join NATO is set to bring about the U.S.-led Western military alliance’s largest expansion in decades. Meanwhile, the G7, consisting of NATO states and fellow U.S. ally Japan, has adopted a tougher line against Russia and China.

In the East, however, security and economy-focused blocs led by Beijing and Moscow are looking to take on new members of their own, including Iran and Saudi Arabia, two influential Middle Eastern rivals whose interest in shoring up cooperation on this new front could have a significant impact on global geopolitical balance.

The two bodies in question are the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS. The former was established in 2001 as a six-member political, economic and military coalition including China, Russia and the Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan before recruiting South Asian nemeses India and Pakistan in 2017, while the latter is a grouping of emerging economic powers originally consisting of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) upon its inception 2006, and including South Africa in 2010.

Here is the money quote:

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New York Governor Kathy Hochul called a special session of the state legislature after the Supreme Court knocked down their firearm restrictions.  The new law, which passed both chambers of democrat-controlled government, takes effect Sept 1st and is unlikely to hold up once challenged in court.  The new law is stunningly over the top.

Keep in mind, when writing the majority decision Justice Clarence Thomas concluded there was no historical requirement that law-abiding citizens show the kind of special need for self-defense required by the New York law to carry a gun in public. Indeed, as Thomas wrote, there is “no other constitutional right that an individual may exercise only after demonstrating to government officers some special need.”

The latest effort from the New York assembly is outlined in an Associated Press report which includes:

(Via AP) […] Among other things, the state’s new rules will require people applying for a handgun license to turn over a list of their social media accounts so officials could verify their “character and conduct.”

Applicants will have to show they have “the essential character, temperament and judgment necessary to be entrusted with a weapon and to use it only in a manner that does not endanger oneself and others.”  As part of that assessment, applicants have to turn over a list of social media accounts they’ve maintained in the past three years.

[…]  The bill approved by lawmakers doesn’t specify whether applicants will be required to provide licensing officers with access to private social media accounts not visible to the general public.

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Keep all of the Biden administration visits to the Port of Los Angeles, Port of Long Beach and Port of Oakland in mind (aka the hide the ships program) as you review this pending issue with port labor unions.   The labor union contracts expired at 5:00pm today.  Massive wage increases, the result of inflation, are demanded by the unions and White House is likely to get involved (if they are not already).

In a very weird economic scenario, the Biden administration actually benefits from a port stoppage as imports are a deduction to GDP and the U.S. economy is presumably on the “zero” growth bubble.   If the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) calculates a negative GDP in the second quarter (not likely for political reasons), the Biden administration would officially be responsible for a recession.  [Any delay in import quantification helps shape the economic statistics; however, Q2 ended yesterday.]

Additionally, port infrastructure specialist, John D. Porcari, is part of the Biden administration economic team.  Porcari shaped the response to the import and supply chain crisis in 2021 that formed the hilarious ‘hide the ships’ strategy.   Porcari works to prop-up the insufferable Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg who has no idea what he’s doing.

CALIFORNIA – LOS ANGELES, July 1 (Reuters) – The contract covering more than 22,000 workers at 29 U.S. West Coast ports expires late on Friday, dialing up worries that labor disruption could roil the nation’s battered supply chains, stoke inflation and threaten a weakening economy.

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It is interesting to remember the recent comments from Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, who outlined the EU energy crisis as the heart of the current inflation rate in the eurozone.  Lagarde discussed inflation in Europe while drawing a distinction in COVID-19 spending between the EU and U.S.

Essentially, according to Legarde, the EU subsidized businesses to maintain employment; the EU covered payroll expenses during lockdowns, while the U.S. sent direct payments to the American people who were impacted by the lack of work (basically everyone).

Lagarde outlined this difference in spending approach to explain why the Eurozone inflation was less than U.S. inflation.

How long did that EU Central Bank explanation hold up? Approximately two months.

The U.S. inflation rate is currently estimated at 8.6%, and today the eurozone inflation rate just reached,…. wait for it,…  Yep, an exact match at 8.6%.

LONDON (AP) — Inflation in countries using the euro set another eye-watering record, pushed higher by a huge increase in energy costs fueled partly by Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Annual inflation in the eurozone’s 19 countries hit 8.6% in June, surging past the 8.1% recorded in May, according to the latest numbers published Friday by the European Union statistics agency, Eurostat. Inflation is at its highest level since recordkeeping for the euro began in 1997.

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Keep in mind as you review this article from the Wall Street Journal that every corporate (think Wall St) media outlet, has claimed for well over a year, that inflation was predominantly a demand side issue.  In essence, consumer demand was so strong that prices were rising because of it.

The demand side argument/justification for inflation was always false.  However, it was/is still the claim made by members of the Biden administration and almost every board member of the federal reserve.

All of them, almost universally, dismissed the supply side inflation argument which is the reality at the epicenter of inflation causation.

Inflation was/is an exclusive outcome of three supply side aspects which merged simultaneously: (1) the Joe Biden energy policy, (2) the Joe Biden promoted covid response via legislative spending, and (3) the promoted Biden administration monetary policy.

While the legislative spending did create artificial economic activity, all of these inflationary sources are supply side impacts.

The demand side claim for the origin of inflation was always a ruse, a con, a complete farce intended to backstop the claim that inflation would be “transitory” once consumer spending moderated.   From that perspective every approach from government toward controlling inflation was wrong.  Not wrong by accident, wrong as a matter of deceit and purposeful media manipulation in order to maintain the “Build Back Better” or “Green New Deal” agenda….. which, I might add, benefitted from the advanced Wall Street investment in both constructs, globally and domestically.

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National Economic Council Chairman Brian Deese essentially confirms what everyone suspected about Joe Biden’s polling, approval and disapproval.  It is quite obvious to everyone now that Biden is a disposable figurehead for the people inside the administration and government who are going full speed ahead with the Green New Deal via executive and regulatory action.

During a CNN segment Deese is challenged by the 85% disapproval and he ignores the opposition from the American people by saying the White House needs to “remind people as we go through this period” where energy costs are skyrocketing because climate change goals are unsustainable, during this economic “transition” they have made other progress.  WATCH: 

Joe Biden represents the once in a lifetime opportunity for every ideological leftist in government to carry out the most extreme energy policy without regard to political consequence.  Biden doesn’t even know what they are doing; that’s why there are conflicts between his statements about energy policy and the factual activity that is taking place around energy policy.  Biden couldn’t name the Interior Secretary if his life depended on it.

The extreme elements around Biden are taking advantage of his cognitive and intellectual deficit.  Obama told everyone Biden was an idiot, and now the Obama ideologues are using that idiot to fundamentally change America.   It is clear what they are doing; unfortunately, almost everyone in media and the leadership of both parties are pretending not to know what is happening.

But wait, it gets worse in the next soundbite from Deese .

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There it is folks.  I hope people can see the natural arc of this self-fulfilling prophecy now.  This also is why you should make sure you have potassium iodide tablets in your prep kit.

During a NATO press conference in Madrid [Transcript Here], today Joe Biden specifically attributed the upcoming global food shortage to Russian President Vladimir Putin.  Biden was emphatic when responding to a question about oil costs, western nation energy development and the pending food shortage.

BIDEN…”I think there’s a lot of things we can do and we will do.  But the bottom line is: Ultimately, the reason why gas prices are up is because of Russia.  Russia, Russia, Russia. The reason why the food crisis exist is because of Russia — Russia not allowing grain to get out of Ukraine.”  WATCH:

[Full Video Here – Prompted, if Needed]

Please understand… The food shortage is a done deal. We are beyond the point where current action could impact what is coming.  The timeframe to mitigate any global food shortage is in the rear-view.  Efforts to mitigate the food crisis should have been done months ago.  Nothing was or is being done.

The Western Alliance now needs a scapegoat, a justification for a food crisis that is almost certain to surface.  We do not know the scale of the shortage, but we do know global food supplies are going to be less than needed to feed the world population.

The direct cause of the food shortage is the Western government decision to prioritize climate change over food production.  The Build Back Better climate change agenda has created massive disruption with energy products (biofuel, fertilizer, diesel, natural gas etc) which are critical for the efficient production of food.  However, the western alliance cannot and will not take responsibility for the food crisis.  Instead, as you are seeing above, their plan is to blame Russia.

Stopping Russia from starving the world will be the justification for a physical escalation of conflict between NATO and Russia.  All of the signs and indicators point in this direction. None of the geopolitical or global economic signs point away from this direction.  A NATO led war with Russia is not a matter of “if”, it is a question of “when?”

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We can see no political scenario where the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will report a negative second quarter GDP number, despite the reality of a contracted economy.

A negative second quarter GDP would mean the Joe Biden economic policies have resulted in a recession.   Yes, the economy is contracting; and yes, the economy is in an actual recession.  However, it would be too politically damaging for the federal bureaucrats to quantify it accurately.

That being said, the Atlanta Fed is now calculating a negative 1% second quarter GDP result [DATA HERE]:

(Fed Reserve) – The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.0 percent on June 30, down from 0.3 percent on June 27. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.7 percent and -8.1 percent, respectively, to 1.7 percent and -13.2 percent, respectively. (link)

CTH predicts the BEA is likely to generate a statistical report somewhere in the +0.5% range. Just enough positive GDP to avoid the literal definition of a recession.  The BEA report will be issued at the end of July and if they follow recent patterns, they will likely underestimate the inflation rate as well as under-calculate the import data.  (more…)