During an earlier G20 discussion of technology in a fast digital age, President Trump highlighted the potential security compromises with the new 5G communication network.  This was an indirect shot toward China and the controversy surrounding Huawei with China’s Chairman Xi Jinping only separated from Trump by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

It would appear President Trump is in full confrontation mode, albeit diplomatically, as the highly anticipated meeting between Trump and Xi is going to take place at 10:30pm tonight.  We are likely, heck, almost guaranteed, to see a complete reversal in position between the two leaders as President Trump wears the panda mask to cover the Eagle glare.  This truly is the dance with the dragon.
After several years of background strategy, President Trump now has Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping in a tenuous position while the ramifications of the U.S-China trade dispute unfold around him and seemingly begin to collapse the One-Belt/One-Road supply chain Beijing has carefully planned.  Actual manufacturing and investment is now retreating from China as the U.S. President continues to use access to the U.S. market as leverage to retract the tentacles of Chinese economic expansion.
President Trump has a quiver full of economic arrows that are available to him; not the least of which is the possibility of enhanced tariffs toward even more Chinese products. Beijing cannot keep subsidizing industry to keep position, they are bleeding cash and the threats against Western corporations have only made matters worse.
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The last bilateral meeting of the first day at the G20 in Osaka, Japan, was held between President Trump and Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro.  [Video and Transcript]
The US accounts for 34 percent of the world’s soybean production with 108 million metric tons. Brazil accounts for 30 percent of the global production of the crop with 87 million metric tons. Combined, Trump and Bolsonaro control 64 percent of global soybean production. [China consumes 60 percent of global soybeans available for export.]
Note: Brazil is a strategic geopolitical U.S. partner against Chairman Xi’s influence, due to the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). It is obvious this has been discussed between Bolsonaro and POTUS Trump.  Within the media pool some enterprising narrative engineer asked President Trump about the Day-Two meeting between Xi and Trump, as noted below (emphasis mine):

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[Transcript] PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you very much everybody. We’re with a gentleman who had one of the greatest election wins anywhere in the world, as far as I’m concerned, and he was very proud of his relationship with President Trump — President of Brazil. And he’s a special man — doing very well, very much loved by the people of Brazil. And I think we can say that Brazil and the United States are as close or closer as they’ve ever been. So I just want to welcome you and say thank you very much, my friend.
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There will be more detailed summaries coming later; however, here’s some of the more interesting aspects so far.   The G20 Osaka, Japan Group Picture:

(Click Image to Enlarge)

As expected the schedule of President Trump’s first set of bilateral discussions seems structured around the Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China’s expansion.  In this strategy within Southeast Asia geopolitics Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is the fulcrum for a shifting economic dynamic.
President Trump hosts a bilateral with Prime Minister Abe, and then again hosts a rather unusual trilateral meeting between himself, Abe and India’s Prime Minister Modi.  The three leaders met in a trilateral discussion at the Buenos Aires G20 in 2018.
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The G20 begins in Osaka, Japan, against the MASSIVE backdrop of the U.S-China geopolitical and economic confrontation.  As the barking spiders jump stupid in Miami, the real center of world focus is on Osaka, Japan and President Trump -vs- Chairman Xi Jinping.   There are tens-of-trillions at stake. – G20 Website –
The schedule for President Trump reflects a history of some serious background work that has led to this moment in time. Two years after the original ‘golden ticket’ tour of Asia, President Trump is reaffirming with strategic partners (PM Abe) and delivering key messages to those who yet have a role to play (PM Modi).

It is worth paying close attention to the economic nationalist coalition that President Trump has carefully assembled. [Watch Abe, Modi and Bolsonaro.] Remember, Osaka is 11 hours ahead of U.S. Eastern Time Zone.
8:25am Friday JDT / 7:25pm Thursday EDT – THE PRESIDENT arrives at INTEX Osaka, Osaka, Japan
♦8:30am Friday JDT / 7:30pm Thursday EDT – THE PRESIDENT participates in a bilateral meeting with the Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan. Osaka, Japan
♦ 9:15am Friday JDT / 8:15pm Thursday EDT – THE PRESIDENT participates in a rare trilateral meeting with the Prime Minister Shinzo abe of Japan and Prime Minister Modi of the Republic of India, Osaka, Japan.  This is the second trilateral with Modi and Abe.
♦9:35am Friday JDT / 8:35pm Thursday EDT – THE PRESIDENT participates in a bilateral meeting with the Prime Minister Modi of the Republic of India, Osaka, Japan.
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Sometimes we just read and think; sometimes we just read and laugh. This is the latter.
China continually looks at President Trump and the U.S. trade position through the wrong prism. Those around Chairman Xi genuinely seem to be incapable of understanding a U.S. President who independently represents long-term U.S. larger interests, and simultaneously leverages the U.S. market as a customer in a one-sided transaction.
The disconnect in Beijing analysis of the dynamic is really quite something.

After last weeks strategic magnanimous panda maneuver, Beijing was shocked, shocked, that President Trump continued to maintain “wrong thinking” toward the upcoming discussion with Chairman Xi.
It appears China fully expected some reciprocal trade bargaining based on their implied promise to release North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un from manipulation; but Trump didn’t flinch.  Instead, of acquiescence to magnanimous panda, President Trump sends Chairman Kim a letter filled with “excellent content“. Beijing was snubbed.
So yesterday as a follow-up Beijing indicates a willingness to revisit the prior agreement by putting the face of Vice-Premier Liu He back into their negotiation position:
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North Korea state-run news agency is reporting on a letter from U.S. President Trump to North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-Un.    In an interesting aspect to the media report, KCNA releases a picture of Chairman Kim reading the letter.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un reads a letter from U.S. President Donald Trump, in Pyongyang, North Korea in this picture released by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on June 22, 2019.

On the hostage dynamic…. last week the hostage taker (Chairman Xi), finally positioned the public optics of Chairman Kim as the hostage; and indicated a likelihood Beijing would negotiate terms for release (better trade deal) with President Trump.  Therefore the rescuer (Trump) now communicates with the hostage (Kim) against an entirely different geopolitical background.
Additionally, both President Trump and Chairman Kim know the picture will be analyzed by high-tech software (Beijing, China and Russia) and the content is easily discoverable.   The message itself, as well as the answer to the message (from Kim), is likely in the picture.  [Note: the White Shirt, business office, is part of the reply].
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The money quote from Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping in the role of magnanimous panda as he departs Chairman Kim:

“This visit has achieved complete success in reinforcing the traditional friendship between China and North Korea”..

Kim remains hostage, and Xi highlights his captive capabilities in advance of the G20 ‘expanded’ meeting with President Trump in Osaka, Japan.  Magnanimous panda thinks he’s created leverage for hostage release negotiations with Trump in exchange for economic and trade concessions… except he hasn’t.
Beijing has fallen into a trap created by a combination of their cultural approach toward geopolitical confrontation and an echo-chamber that does not allow -or consider- warnings from dissenting voices.  In essence, it might sound goofy considering the magnitude of the issues at hand, but Beijing doesn’t know President Trump.
One of the reasons for the miscalculation is likely due to Beijing weighing their analysis and strategy based on typical Western reporting similar to THIS ARTICLE in the New York Times.
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Chairman Xi Jinping arrives in North Korea to support the “correct thinking” within his proxy province and hostage Kim Jong-Un.   Magnanimous Panda, and defender of all enlightened Asian progress, exhibited great smiles as nervous Kim worries over the dust on the military shoestrings.  WATCH:

(Reuters) BEIJING (Reuters) – The world hopes North Korea and the United States can talk to each other and for those talks to be successful, Chinese President Xi Jinping told North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Thursday, praising Pyongyang’s efforts toward denuclearization.

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This is interesting… but not simply because of the surface visibility.  Yesterday there was an event in Charlotte, North Carolina, that brought together Apple CEO Tim Cook, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, U.S. Workforce policy advocate Ivanka Trump and U.S. CoC President Tom Donohue (on the margin).

Today, Apple Inc announces a restructuring of their supply chain away from China. In the media report notice the nations that likely stand to gain, and reference Trump’s 2017 golden ticket tour of Asia.

(Reuters) – Apple Inc has asked its major suppliers to assess the cost implications of moving 15%-30% of their production capacity from China to Southeast Asia as it prepares for a restructuring of its supply chain, according to a Nikkei Asian Review report on Wednesday.
Apple’s request was a result of the extended Sino-U.S. trade dispute, but a trade resolution will not lead to a change in the company’s decision, Nikkei said s.nikkei.com/31zCGhw, citing multiple sources.

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As we noted on Day #1, if we watch how Beijing scripts the messaging we should be able to identify if Chairman Xi Jinping is taking the dragon approach toward his captive Kim Jong Un, or if Xi would instead reshape the geopolitics by announcing his release of Kim as a hostage: The magnanimous panda approach.  [Critical Background HERE and HERE]
It looks like we have an answer today as Chairman Xi writes a personal op-ed, published on the front page of North Korea’s state newspaper, where Xi is releasing Kim from proxy province captivity:

…”China supports North Korea’s “correct direction” in politically resolving issues on the Korean Peninsula.”…

Yes, though important details are yet to follow, it appears Beijing is acquiescing to the unrelenting pressure from hostage rescuer President Donald Trump and allowing the DPRK to exit the controlled captivity of China. Likely denuclearization will commence.

SEOUL (Reuters) – Chinese President Xi Jinping said in an op-ed in North Korean state newspaper Rodong Sinmun on Wednesday that China supports North Korea’s “correct direction” in politically resolving issues on the Korean Peninsula.
The front-page op-ed is an honor rarely granted to foreign leaders and comes a day before Xi is set to visit Pyongyang on Thursday and Friday at the invitation of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, making him the first Chinese leader to visit in 14 years.

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