The New Year brings a look of forward-looking economic perspectives from major financial institutions.  Unfortunately, if the perspective of Bank of America Chief Economist Michael Gapen is reflective of the larger institutional analysis, the financial pretending is anticipated to continue.

[Side Note: Notice how they will all start talking about ‘deglobalization’ in 2023. There’s a reason for that that I will touch on in the IMF interview to follow]

Appearing on Face the Nation Gapen accurately indicates the U.S. housing market is already in a steep economic recession, housing prices falling rapidly with a considerable amount of distance to go (-30% range), and the overall housing market will likely be in this situation for around two years.  On a macro level the Bank of America indicators line up with the general housing trajectory.  From a lending standpoint, Gapen would have specific insight.

Beyond the housing sector, Mr. Gapen starts to get sketchy.  He anticipates inflation taking 24 to 36 months to lower to the norm 2% range.  That is generally in line with CTH expectations; however, nowhere in the analysis does Gapen even mention energy costs and the overall impact to the economy from energy policy.  You will note this absence will be present in almost all financial punditries.  Mentioning “energy policy’ as a cause of economic pain is a third rail amid his peer group; it is simply not permitted.

Astute readers will note the great financial and economic pretending that surrounds the Build Back Better and Green New Deal climate change agenda will not be discussed by anyone, ever. The massive price impacts, the supply side inflation pressures, are baked into the western global economic outlooks.  It is strictly verboten to talk about climate change policy being stopped, modified, reversed or even, well, gasp, removed.  WATCH:

[TRANSCRIPT] – […] BANK OF AMERICA CHIEF ECONOMIST MICHAEL GAPEN: Happy New Year as well. Thank you for having me on.

MARGARET BRENNAN: You know, a majority of voters polled by The Wall Street Journal say that the economy is going to look and feel worse in 2023. What is your forecast?

GAPEN: So I think that’s probably true. I think we’re in a situation where the risk of recession is high, may not be a deep and prolonged one. But we’re in a situation where the economy has recovered very rapidly from- from COVID, and it’s come with a lot of inflation. And the Federal Reserve is trying to slow down the economy, to bring inflation down. And in the past, more often than not, that’s coincided with some sort of recession in the US economy and the U.S. labor market. It’s not baked in. It’s not for certain. We may be able to avoid it, but I would agree that the outlook by most people who sit in the position that I do think 2023 could be a difficult year for the U.S..

MARGARET BRENNAN: So we may be able to avoid recession?

GAPEN: Yes.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Or it could be mild?

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In an effort to keep the Daily Open Thread a little more open topic we are going to start a new daily thread for “Presidential Politics”. Please use this thread to post anything relating to the JoeBama Administration and Presidency.

“This is no small thing, to restore a republic after it has fallen into corruption. I have studied history for years and I cannot recall it ever happening. It may be that our task is impossible. Yet, if we do not try then how will we know it can’t be done? And if we do not try, it most certainly won’t be done. The Founders’ Republic, and the larger war for western civilization, will be lost.”

“But I tell you this: We will not go gently into that bloody collectivist good night. Indeed, we will make with our defiance such a sound as ALL history from that day forward will be forced to note, even if they despise us in the writing of it.”

~ Mike Vanderboegh

This thread will refresh daily and appear above the Open Discussion Thread.

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Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. THY WILL BE DONE, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but DELIVER US FROM EVIL.

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen †

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President Donald Trump delivered remarks at his Mar-a-Lago, Florida estate as he and Melania attended a New Year gala. {Direct Rumble Link} WATCH:

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If 2022 was not the apex year for the era of great pretending, then we remain sitting in a handbasket – destination, full speed ahead.

When asked for the topic of a ‘big picture‘ podcast this 2022-year ending, the obvious answer from me was We Need to Quit Pretending.

For the past two years I can only encapsulate the entire social, political and socioeconomic dynamic that surrounds us by saying we are living in an era of great pretending.  Why?  Because nothing else adequately explains it.

A recession is no longer two negative quarters of economic growth.  Elections are no longer defined by votes cast, but by ballots counted.  Meanwhile, women are claimed to have penises and people will argue -strenuously and with commitment- that men can give birth to babies.

Simultaneously, vaccines are no longer about medicines to avoid viruses, and Americans have some moral obligation to fund the administrative salaries, pensions and expense accounts for a nation of European politicians, in a country that few taxpayers could find on a map.

We must pretend the occupant of the oval office is not a dementia patient, at the same time we must pretend the Dept of Homeland Security and FBI is not telling online speech platforms that identifying the dementia patient, as a dementia patient, means you are a domestic violent extremist.  The absurdity of the pretenses are off-the-charts.

However, on the upside, we now see even blissfully ignorant people starting to realize something is wrong when their electricity and heating bills quadruple, while the same system of governmental caretakers are telling us to embrace a new earth friendly normal of $12 dollar eggs.  We been knew, but more are now knowing – thank God.

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… “Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.”

~ Robert Frost

2022 has been another tumultuous year for most of us.  I will have other thoughts on the year upon reflection. However, as the eve winds down, and as we are given to considering everything that has taken place, a revisit to the spiritual core of our association is appropriate.

For me, this year provided many memorable gifts; almost all driven by a purposeful God reminding me of my selfish insignificance.  This year I watched the physical landscape where my youth unfolded, forever changed; much of it erased completely.

The trees which once held the swings and forts for youthful triumphs, felled by nature’s fury and soon thereafter turned to mulch.  Their trunks and branches likely to landscape a coming McMansion for a person with no similar attachment.  And so it goes…. And so, it goes.  An apropos metaphor for life, and a not subtle reminder that we are temporarily living it.

If my younger self had known a clock was counting down, perhaps the kid would have paused under the shade of the old banyans and thanked them. Then again, it really wouldn’t be childhood if we carried such weighty concerns.  I am forever thankful I never carried that weight, and simultaneously today I cherish each breeze with a newfound appreciation for what I did not know.

Perhaps we have new challenges, perhaps our center is askew, perhaps our faith holds a new perspective, or perhaps our exhaustion weighs heavy as we rush turning to the next chapter…. hoping, praying for a better tomorrow.

It is easy to lose our sense of optimism.  Retaining a joyful perspective while everything around us seems mad isn’t easy.  However, if you accept that you can create something just a little bit better by making a choice, then you have accomplished a great deal.

Regardless of what tomorrow brings, we always have choices.  A new year’s perspective:

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This is interesting.  The use of public genetic genealogy databases by law enforcement officials has been discussed for several years now.

According to information within a CNN article about the capture of Idaho murder suspect Bryan Kohberger, it appears this might be the most recent case solved -at least in part- through the use of those public DNA databases.

Previously the Golden State Killer was identified through the use of DNA using a public genealogy database.  According to the CNN article it appears a similar process was used in the identification of Kohberger:

(Via CNN) – […] Investigators homed in on Kohberger as the suspect through DNA evidence and by confirming his ownership of a white Hyundai Elantra seen near the crime scene, according to two law enforcement sources briefed on the investigation.

[…] An FBI surveillance team tracked him for four days before his arrest while law enforcement worked with prosecutors to develop enough probable cause to obtain a warrant, the two law enforcement sources said.

Genetic genealogy techniques were used to connect Kohberger to unidentified DNA evidence, another source with knowledge of the case tells CNN. The DNA was run through a public database to find potential family member matches, and subsequent investigative work by law enforcement led to him as the suspect, the source said. (read more)

Many who understand the scope of data and privacy exploitation have often wondered and warned if it was smart for people to be voluntarily giving their DNA to various genealogical tracing companies.  When Blackstone purchased Ancestry.Com the world’s largest public DNA database, there were several questions raised again about the possible misuse and privacy issues.   At the time, here’s how Ancestry responded:

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Neil Oliver looks at the current media headlines as the New Year approaches, noticing it’s Groundhog Day all over again.  The video is available on the GB News Website Here and the transcript is below:

[Video Here]

[Transcript] –  New Year incoming – and still we are being beaten around the head with the same old stories.

In a few hours, we welcome 2023, but as far as our leaders and their lackeys are concerned it might as well be Groundhog Day.

I look at the headlines on this last day of 2022 and what do I see? Covid, Ukraine and Climate Change. Folk nuttier than anything found in a selection box are talking about bringing back face masks. God help us. Let’s remind everyone for the umpteenth time that Covid is now no more dangerous to most than the common cold. But still, the talk is of the pandemic, same old, same old.

I speak to people every day and hear real stories about real struggles. At first, when asked, “How’re things?” most smile and say they’re fine. Spend a few minutes in conversation though and the stories come.

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The ideology of these elitist minded control officers is really remarkable.  The president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, has given several statements to media saying policy measures must be put into place in order to stop wage growth from fueling inflation.

Think about this in the most practical of terms.  Western politicians have created massive inflation through their collective ‘Build Back Better’ energy policy.  The central banks have raised interest rates, an effort to shrink the economy by lowering energy demand, to offset the skyrocketing costs of the energy problem the politicians created.

With workers demanding pay raises to help afford the skyrocketing costs of energy, the central EU bank is now worried that wage increases will fuel inflation.

There’s a truckload of pretending needed to avoid seeing the insufferable dynamic of reality.

Political policy drives up energy costs. Central banks try to drive down energy demand.  Workers unable to afford the energy prices created by politicians, are then blamed for the inflation the political policy creates.

Sooner or later ordinary people are going to figure out this abusive cycle.

(Via Reuters) – Euro zone wages are growing quicker than earlier thought and the European Central Bank must prevent this from adding to already high inflation, ECB President Christine Lagarde told a Croatian newspaper.

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Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger was named the 265th pontiff of the Roman Catholic Church on April 19, 2005, at the age of 78. He was the first German pope in several centuries and chose the name Benedict XVI.

Pope Benedict resigned in February 2013 at the age of 85 and the Vatican announced earlier today he died, age 95.

ABC News reports: “With sorrow I inform you that the Pope Emeritus, Benedict XVI, passed away today at 9:34 in the Ecclesiae Monastery in the Vatican. Further information will be provided as soon as possible,” said the Director of the Holy See press office Matteo Bruni’s statement.

The Vatican press office has said that Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI’s body will lie in state in St. Peter’s Basilica in the Vatican for the faithful to pay their respects. No further details have been announced. (more)

It’s very unusual for a pope to die while another is in office.

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