Fed Governor Christopher Waller appeared on CNBC to announce we have reached peak inflation, and things will moderate from here.  All of these fed moves are political moves, not monetary policy-based moves. Here’s the thing they will never admit to the non-institutional investor.

The fed has been painfully slow to raise interest rates on purpose.  They did not make a mistake.  The reason for their delay is they needed to wait for the beginning of the first 2021 inflation wave to cycle through before they raised interest rates.  It’s a game of mirrors that almost no one sees.  WATCH:

The rate of inflation will drop once the statistical year-over-year comparisons reach the same moment in the prior year.  The fed will raise interest rates in May and then use the June inflation rate decline as a false talking point to highlight how their policy is working.  They wait for May, because they need to wait for the calendar, nothing else.  Inflation is measured as the percentage of change from the prior year.  By waiting until the inflation is measured against the first wave of rising prices, it will give the illusion of a decline in inflation.

So that’s why they waited.  But here’s the worse part….

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The “Producer Price Index” (PPI) is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released March price data [Available Here] showing a dramatic 11.2% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.  This is the fifth consecutive month with the highest rate of inflation the PPI ever recorded.

The single month increase in wholesale prices of 2.3% was driven by inflation built into the supply chain at every level that shows up in the final wholesale price.  Those price increases then get passed along to consumers along with the additional costs for warehousing, transportation and delivery.  I modified Table-A (FINAL DEMAND) to take out some of the noise.

Wholesale prices of goods jumped 2.3 percent in March, and the wholesale price of food products jumped 2.4 percent.  The total demand inflation compared to last year is 11.2 percent, the highest rate ever recorded since the PPI tracking was first started.

The total final demand monthly calculation (1.4%) is lower than the final demand goods (2.3%), because final demand services are offsetting.  You may remember the discussion/analysis about prices beginning to stabilize after this month due to a contraction in demand for goods and services.  I see support for that thesis within this data.

The three phases of wholesale product creation: (1) origination, (2) intermediate, and (3) final, cycle through the economic analysis in reverse chronological order.  Roughly speaking, the flow of goods quantified is done in 30-day sequences.  Final demand this month is comparing to final demand in March 2021.  The intermediate demand goods this month will become final demand goods next month (April).

The rate of inflation behind this set of final demand goods is beginning to soften.  See Table B, Intermediate goods.  Again, modified to take out the noise:

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The CDC announced today {SEE HERE} they are extending the federal emergency order requiring masks on planes, trains and public transportation for a period of 15 days, ending May 3rd.

The mask mandate was set to expire April 18. However, the Biden administration will keep the requirement in place for another 15 days under the justification of a rise in COVID-19 cases driven by the new BA.2 sublineage of the Omicron variant.

(Press Release) – […] The CDC Mask Order remains in effect while CDC assesses the potential impact of the rise of cases on severe disease, including hospitalizations and deaths, and healthcare system capacity. TSA will extend the security directive and emergency amendment for 15 days, through May 3, 2022. (link)

There are contradicting claims on the benefits and/or futility of wearing masks to avoid spreading the COVID-19 virus.  Several scientific studies have found no significant benefit; however, the theatrics of mask wearing is now a litmus test for global virtue.

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, has recently announced a new indoor mask mandate for their extended metropolitan area.  Fauci soundbite below.

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DeceptiCon ruler Mitch McConnell is the ultimate abuser in the relationship of the Republican Party to its base of voters.

During a series of remarks at a Kentucky Chamber of Commerce convention Tuesday, the Senate Minority Leader went right back to his familiar pattern of telling voters they should listen to who he says is acceptable or not acceptable as a 2022 Republican candidate.

Those of you who have walked the deep political weeds with us, will remember the battles against McConnell’s uniparty wing in the 2010, 2012 and 2014 races.  This is where McConnell and McCain famously called the base of the GOP “whack-o-birds” and “jihobbits” for supporting unsanctioned Senate candidates like Scott Brown, Ted Cruz, Mike Lee, Ron Johnson, Tom Cotton, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio and more.

(KENTUCKY) – […] McConnell, speaking at a chamber event in Kentucky, said that 1994 had been the best year for Republicans and that the atmosphere heading into November “is better than it was in 1994.”

“From an atmospheric point of view, it’s a perfect storm of problems for the Democrats,” McConnell said. “How could you screw this up? It’s actually possible. And we’ve had some experience with that in the past.”

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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen delivered a remarkable speech today outlining “the future of the international order,” in the aftermath of the global pandemic and the current conflict in Ukraine.  Within the speech, Yellen outlines the priorities of the United States according to the current administration and the international financial mechanisms that she controls.

The speech is quite jaw-dropping when you consider the nature of her position, and the fact that she is an unelected bureaucrat within government.

As you read the speech {Transcript Here}, keep in mind she is not the President of the United States, or the commissioner of the New World Order, yet she presents herself as authorized to control the geopolitical constructs of the Biden administration.  The hubris is astounding.

Secretary Yellen: outlines the goals and objectives of the international order, predicts a concerning global famine, warns against the cleaving of financial mechanisms for international trade as an outcome of the Ukraine conflict, threatens any nation who does not support the western political alliance and outlines the need for decarbonization of the global economy.

Yellen expresses all of these powers from the position of a U.S. Treasury Secretary – the equivalent of a government financial minister.  Speech highlights with emphasis mine:

(Transcript) – […] “Russia’s horrific conduct has violated international law, including core tenets of the UN Charter—challenging countries to demonstrate where they stand with respect to the international order that has been built since World War II.  Therefore, when I speak about a changed global outlook, I’m not just talking about growth forecasts.  I’m also referring to our conception of international cooperation going forward.  

I will focus my remarks today on the significance of international cooperation in this current environment and for our future.

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In an effort to keep the Daily Open Thread a little more open topic we are going to start a new daily thread for “Presidential Politics”. Please use this thread to post anything relating to the JoeBama Administration and Presidency.

“This is no small thing, to restore a republic after it has fallen into corruption. I have studied history for years and I cannot recall it ever happening. It may be that our task is impossible. Yet, if we do not try then how will we know it can’t be done? And if we do not try, it most certainly won’t be done. The Founders’ Republic, and the larger war for western civilization, will be lost.”

“But I tell you this: We will not go gently into that bloody collectivist good night. Indeed, we will make with our defiance such a sound as ALL history from that day forward will be forced to note, even if they despise us in the writing of it.”

~ Mike Vanderboegh

This thread will refresh daily and appear above the Open Discussion Thread.

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Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. THY WILL BE DONE, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but DELIVER US FROM EVIL.

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen †

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U.S. Magistrate Judge Michael Harvey (Obama appointee in 2015) declined to hold the two men in jail who are accused of impersonating federal agents in Washington DC. “There’s been no showing that national security information has been compromised,” Harvey said in his decision.

If the DOJ does not appeal the decision, both men, Arian Taherzadeh, (40) and Haider Ali (35), who are also in the United States with expired visas, will be allowed bond.

(Reuters) – […] Harvey ordered both men to remain in home confinement, subject to GPS monitoring, with their parents and that they surrender their passports and stay away from airports and embassies.

[…] The judge said prosecutors did not prove the defendants tried to infiltrate the Secret Service with nefarious purposes, and noted they were so “spectacularly outed” that there is no risk anymore that they can continue to pose as agents.

Harvey said neither defendant is charged with a violent crime and neither one faces a stiff prison term if convicted – all elements that work against the prosecution’s claims they pose a danger to the community. Harvey added there have been “significantly worse and more dangerous impersonation cases” before the court in the past.  (read more)

It was also recently revealed the Secret Service tipped-off the two imposters right before they were about to get arrested.

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Police have identified suspect Frank R James (62) as the man who opened fire on a Brooklyn subway train during the early morning rush Tuesday, injuring at least 29 people. According to authorities, ten people were shot when James set off a smoke grenade and opened fire in a subway car.

New York – A 62-year-old man who made bizarre threatening rants on YouTube has been identified as a person of interest in the savage Brooklyn subway attack that injured at least 29 people Tuesday morning, officials said.

Frank James — who warned last month that he was “entering the danger zone” — rented a U-Haul van tied to the N train attack in Sunset Park and is being sought for questioning, police said at an evening briefing.

“Mr. Mayor, I’m a victim of your mental health program,” James said in one lengthy video.

“I’m 63 now full of hate, full of anger, and full of bitterness.” James said he had a diagnosed mental illness and railed against what he called the “horror show” of the city’s mental health services. “What’s going on in that place is violence,” he said about a facility he claimed to receive care from. (read more)

During an evening press briefing (video below), NYPD Commissioner Keechant Sewell said among the items recovered by cops at the scene were a 9 mm handgun, a hatchet, gasoline and “consumer-grade fireworks.”

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I want to be very careful here, because multiple people have sent me a version of this outline asking for opinion. Basically, is David Friedberg correct?

The discussion in this video surrounds farming as a construct of global caloric creation.  Meaning, with all that is taking place in the farming system on a global scale, will there be dramatic food shortages?  It is a complex issue.  In the larger picture what Friedberg, a former scientist within the Monsanto organization, explains is accurate; however, I would inject some nuanced dissension as it relates to U.S. farm production specifically.

The first four and a half minutes of the video are an accurate representation of the global state of farming, albeit with a little too much weight on the Ukraine-Russia aspect.  There was a preexisting issue long before Russia entered the picture. The price of fertilizer was already skyrocketing, Russia-Ukraine has made that already looming issue, worse.  WATCH First 04:30 minutes:

https://youtu.be/1xtGTVWrw-M

The problem described, about farmers deciding not to plant, is weighted more heavily in less developed countries where access to the financing for a future crop is not stable {AP Article Here}.  For most of the developed world farming will continue; it is the end product where prices will reflect the additional costs of bringing a harvest to market.  Bottom line, as the futures market is showing, crops will be more expensive.

There is going to be a problem in the same areas of the world where food stability and dependency is already an issue.  Yes, the convergence of current farm challenges will make those areas more vulnerable.  We do not know, to what extent.

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