I want to be very careful here, because multiple people have sent me a version of this outline asking for opinion. Basically, is David Friedberg correct?
The discussion in this video surrounds farming as a construct of global caloric creation. Meaning, with all that is taking place in the farming system on a global scale, will there be dramatic food shortages? It is a complex issue. In the larger picture what Friedberg, a former scientist within the Monsanto organization, explains is accurate; however, I would inject some nuanced dissension as it relates to U.S. farm production specifically.
The first four and a half minutes of the video are an accurate representation of the global state of farming, albeit with a little too much weight on the Ukraine-Russia aspect. There was a preexisting issue long before Russia entered the picture. The price of fertilizer was already skyrocketing, Russia-Ukraine has made that already looming issue, worse. WATCH First 04:30 minutes:
https://youtu.be/1xtGTVWrw-M
The problem described, about farmers deciding not to plant, is weighted more heavily in less developed countries where access to the financing for a future crop is not stable {AP Article Here}. For most of the developed world farming will continue; it is the end product where prices will reflect the additional costs of bringing a harvest to market. Bottom line, as the futures market is showing, crops will be more expensive.
There is going to be a problem in the same areas of the world where food stability and dependency is already an issue. Yes, the convergence of current farm challenges will make those areas more vulnerable. We do not know, to what extent.
The notation about a 90-day supply of food on a global basis (Northern Hemisphere) is slightly askew, as countries like the United States have a much deeper reserve and storage capacity. We discussed this last year {Go Deep}.
Essentially, in the U.S. we operate approximately one full harvest cycle ahead of demand. However, our problem is the COVID lockdowns in 2020 and 2021 disrupted the two food delivery systems by shutting down restaurants, cafeterias, hotels, hospitality venues, entertainment, school lunchrooms etc and limiting capacity for six months. The government intervention seriously messed up our food supply chain. {Go Deep}
In North America I do not foresee any major scarcity of total food availability, certainly not in the fresh food supply side. There may be shortages on specific segments within the processed and manufactured food supply chain, but those would be nuanced based on specific ingredient issues.
What we will see is continued increases in price and a demand for U.S. agricultural products to fill the voids in global markets that result from less developed nations needing the products our North American farming experts can deliver. There will be a higher demand for us to export food materials, and when combined with the already increased cost for the harvest, that means much higher prices still coming.
Our North American farmers are awesome in their ability to maximize yield, with the customary and appropriate qualifier that ultimately mother nature will determine success or failure. Our U.S. and Canadian farmers and ranchers are the best of the best. Their ability to feed our nation is a national and strategic advantage, unparalleled in any other region. They know how to do it, if the government will just get out of the way and let them work.
If it was a priority for the U.S. government to ensure U.S. food stability, they could spend a few billion by securing fertilizer and reasonably priced energy (diesel) for our farmers, simply to offset the upfront and increased production costs. Then, just turn North America loose, pray a little bit, and let them create as much product as possible for the overall market. Let the market demand determine the crop, and get government out of their business.
Farmers in the U.S, Mexico and Canada have the capacity to drive higher yields. Unfortunately, the politics of war, Wall Street – and the influence of the international banking system – takes a higher priority for DC than simple farming commonsense. Unfortunately, as we saw today, turning corn into gasoline additive just exemplifies the stupidity of the DC mindset.
On one hand, we have serious people concerned about global famine. On the other hand, we have a narcissistic occupant of the oval office, and a tribe of DC idiots worried about gasoline prices and the mid-term election. These issues do not have to be mutually exclusive, and there is a reasonable solution for both of them. However, all that reasonableness evaporates once the people behind a fraudulently elected DC politician walk in the room.
Will there be a dangerous level of food shortage globally? Yes
Will there be a dangerous level of food shortage in North America? No, but there may be some scarcity.
Will there be higher prices? Absolutely.
Unleash the farmers and unleash the energy experts and all of this maddening anxiety ends. Unfortunately, those actions are adverse to the Build Back Better agenda.
We are in an abusive relationship with our government.
In the New World Order “Cap and Trade” economy, ALL producers will be “capped” at how much carbon they generate and have to “trade” for carbon credit “offsets” to keep operating. Each carbon credit offset is expected to cost upwards of $130 once a full compliance market is established. The current price in Europe is 78-Euro.
One can “earn” offsets by reclaiming former agricultural land and leaving it as untilled natural grassland or re-forest it. Each acre can then earn up to 7-carbon credits per year, which can be sold on the open market. NOW do you get why Bill Gates recently purchased 270,000 acres of US farmland??
So, riddle me this, …if a farmer can do nothing, and each year, earn twice what he currently earns under national and international cap and trade laws, what will THAT mean for our food supply?? Have you given that any thought lately?
Who is the new world order?
It ain’t me and it ain’t you.
Crap and trade=subsidy to billionaires. When will this supercharged greed end? How much is enough? Not until they own everything and we are injected and barcoded livestock and they can fk and mutilate our children at will. That is the road we are on.
It won’t end until people wake up and realize who the people are that make up “The New World Order” “The Globalist Bankers” “The Fake News Media”. You can’t fix a problem when you don’t know what the problem is. All the people that make up the above all have something in common. Just dog a little deeper…
Huh? So here in CA … where we have a shocking lack of housing … developers will be PAID to leave their land undeveloped? I guess that’s a GOOD thing … since CA development has expanded massively into arable farmland in the relatively inexpensive Central Valley.
so the “greens” will strategically make us all starve … and be homeless? Who put these idgiots in charge of anything?
I think the communists refer to them as “useful idiots”. Useful to their goals of control of society.
A corpse doesn’t need a home.
And think of the money to be made negotiating those trades.
Carbon credit scam is merely a government shakedown scheme. A Convention of States needs to do away with Fed meddling in business and economics. Janet Yellen is a lunatic.
I think it may be too late for a Convention of States.
IMO, a Convention of States would be child’s play for people who have rigged the votes in their favor worldwide for years. If one were held here, many of them would most likely drown and die in their own saliva before they had a chance to enjoy the benefits they’d engineer for themselves.
A convention of states is a really bad idea. Yes, people like Levin have promoted it, but he isn’t as smart as he thinks he is. There are many problems with a convention of states but instead of trying to go into all that just think about one simple question: A convention of states would establish new laws to supposedly change things back to the way the Founders intended America to be. The problem is that those in power do not respect the laws we have now so there’s no reason to think that new laws would suddenly cause them to be compliant. All a convention of states would do is open the door to changes we don’t want. While Levin and others think they could control what would happen at a convention of states, the fact is that the first constitutional convention was thrown out and replaced with what we have now and there is nothing to stop those involved in a convention from doing the same thing this time.
The only solution is to get to the bottom of what happened in 2020 and prosecute those who broke the law, then fix the voting system so cheating does not happen again. Until you fix what happened then nothing can save America.
Dave, you are correct, sir. At a constitutional convention, EVERYTHING is up for grabs.
Source of this information please?
I’d really like to see someone do a breakdown on how good things really were in Dec, Jan, Feb 2020. I’ve said it before, most people were doing the best they ever were immediately before the cerveza sickness.
I have an anecdote from a conversation with a small orchard owner in the summer of 2019. He told me he had never had it so good. People were visiting his orchard and never flinched at the asking price for his fresh fruits and vegetables. He sold apples, peaches, blueberries, plums and vegetable produce along with honey and “home-made” freshly baked pies. The smell of his oven right in the retail shop was heavenly. He had a thriving pick-your-own business for the city folk. And then covid came and brandon entered the white house.
Did he vote for Brandon?
The Democrat Left (HER minions) in cooperation with the communist Chinese State conspired to CRIPPLE PDJT. Why? Because of the raging SUCCESS of PDJT. The Left and their “Institutional” partners in the Deep State simply wouldn’t … couldn’t!!! permit an outsider-businessman have the SUCCESS PDJT was enjoying … so they unleashed a “killer” virus. And they even had a “Wet Market” story primed and ready to transcribe for the compliant media to report.
This has all been an international conspiracy to take out Trump. Yes … sometimes conspiracy theories are true.
There is an international conspiracy. You just have the wrong players. Dig deeper. Who actually occupies and controls western governments? Who are the actors in the deep State, new world order, globalist? Who staged the 2014 coup in Ukraine? The names of the people not the countries… Does Victoria (Noodleman) Nuland ring a bell? What is Zelensky’s background (other than comedian)? Who is Ihor Valeriyovych Kolomoyskyi? Did Soros have anything to do with Ukraine? Who is he? What was the Maidan Massacre? Who were the players? The international cabal is real…too many people are distracted with the shiny objects to see what is right in front of their faces.
Don’t forget the true Big Guy-Satan.
We fight not against flesh and blood…
The peak & transitory inflationists fundamentally misunderstand the ‘seeding process’ of the phenomenon itself.
Inflation produces expectations (a behavioral phenomenon) which in turn ‘self-fulfill’ ever more inflation. Once this feedback loop commences, it becomes a self-reinforcing, infernal-attitudinal circle not easily repealed.
I’d suggest hyperinflation is less a monetary phenomenon, than a group psychology one. The masses become conditioned to ‘vomit the hot potato of cash’ out of their pockets tout-suite and into milk and eggs since the latter are broadly expected to cost substantially more by next payday (as evidenced by the weeks and months just prior).
Queues form outside the Wiggly Squiggly Friday evenings at 5 pm for whatever the shelves hold (supply-chain beggars can’t be choosers). Soviet-era Amerika is born.
Keeping the wealth effect dirigible afloat:
When the Buyer of First Resort (Fed) doubles as the Buyer of Last Resort (Fed), an oroborus forms. This is a variant of Soviet Democratic Centralism.
[ See too] John Law’s incestuous tail-eating serpent (Mississippi Bubble) … where currency is conjured ex nihilo to feed further asset appreciation. The ‘cost’? Value alienation which ultimately leads to a ‘twin-tower’ collapse of both asset and currency. The ‘good news’? Your stock portfolio is down ‘only’ 80%. The bad news? The currency your 20% residual stock value is numerated in is now valueless.
I was a Trump economic nationalist early because I saw his re-nationalization of American industry as a vital step towards the de-alienation of the American people. I also saw that this vital project would necessitate the demise of the USD and MIC as America’s two chief exports: those exports being money-changing and empire-conducted death.
Ultimately, The Triffin Dilemma will be healed by the USD losing exorbitant privilege status which was never anything more than exorbitant license, corruption and moral decay on behalf of the Empire, and NEVER ON BEHALF OF AMERICA AND AMERICANS.
The road to moral and economic health (after a admittedly wrenching period of dislocation) is the re-nationalization (de-empirization) of the national currency.
Thanks to SD for housing my occasional long rambles. I’m in accord with most of his economic thinking. On these matters, he’s a rare clever bird, or birdess or ensemble of birds. We’re truly lucky to have both his cogitations and his forum. He’s about the only one making any sense.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mississippi_Bubble
Did I imagine it or did we see reports last year of farmers being paid and threatened to till their crops under?
No you did not imagine it. . There is this, https://www.greenmatters.com/p/government-paying-farmers-destroy-crops and this, https://thecounter.org/biden-administration-farmers-conservation-reserve-crp-usda-vilsack/ for starters. which pelicanstew mentioned offsets above.
Engineered gov sponsored starvation. Holodomor 2.0. This is what communists do. They take rich countries and make them poor because poor starving people are easier to control.
Plus they worship death.
That has been going on literally for decades. It used to be called price support. I remember in the late 1950s, news photos of dairy farmers dumping milk down the barn drain as a ploy to force the state of PA to set a price floor under milk.
What was said in Atlas Shrugged?
“GET THE HELL OUT OF THE WAY”!
It never seems to get mentioned and for most, it probably requires no mention. But after multiple years of this kind of policy implemented uniformly all around the world, it makes people who claim this is “incompetence” “or stupidity” look pretty naive and stupid themselves. This is intentional and the results are by design.
We have to address the source.
But they say this so you will allow it, just long enough to get it in place.
Like voter fraud. No fraud no fraud no fraud, oh too late to fix it. It’s the way it’s been since I’ve been alive and aware. And it works.
Who didn’t know Brandon was a coup? Who didn’t know he had dementia? Too late!
One thing, voter fraud has to be reversed.
Great. How does that happen when every single person in gov seems to have been bribed or blackmailed into submission. Thousands should have gone straight to prison. Miles and miles of video.
“There’s absolutely no voting fraud. The 2020 election was the most honest secure election in the entire history of planet earth. Move along, peasant.”
The Jedi mass media mind trick.
Go Galt, as much as you can.
It will entail sacrifice, but spit yourself out of the system as much as you can.
As much as possible, don’t support a system that wants to milk you like a cow and then slaughter you like a sheep.
Bingo!
Open borders, millions of poor illiterates and criminals flooding into the country, gov engineered food shortages. What could possibly go wrong?
And get the damn chinese out of land ownership in the US.
And any other foreign ownership.
Excellent explanation.
I still have a concern about the big corps that run farms. Genetically modified anything is horrifying. Yet, this is how they are able to achieve better yields (in combination with over-planting on the depleted soil). The quality of our food is suffering. We need to take nutriceutical supplements which we used to get naturally from just eating good whole food. Anyone who has grown their own vegetables knows they do not stay that fresh looking for that long unlike those you purchase at the grocery store. The FDA has also messed around with food labeling. I look to other sources for additional information on organically grown to fully understand what I am buying at the store.
The side effects of what you describe include nanoparticles in factory food, and an epidemic of obesity brought on by the government’s demands for “more fiber” and corn syrup in place of “bad” white sugar sweeteners.
According to the National Geographic Society, the first genetically engineered plants to be produced for human consumption were introduced in the mid-1990s. Today, approximately 90 percent of the corn, soybeans, and sugar beets on the market are GMOs. Genetically engineered crops produce higher yields, have a longer shelf life, are resistant to diseases and pests, and even taste better. These benefits are a plus for both farmers and consumers. For example, higher yields and longer shelf life may lead to lower prices for consumers, and pest-resistant crops means that farmers don’t need to buy and use as many pesticides to grow quality crops. GMO crops can thus be kinder to the environment than conventionally grown crops.
Humans have been modifying plants and animals for centuries but selective breeding/cross breeding produces mixed results and takes time. Organically grown produces products that are mostly free from many chemicals but are overly expensive, provide no different nutrients or flavor and spoil faster in the supply chain.
In fact, many of the E-coli outbreaks have come from organic farms because of the nutrients(fecal matter) they use as an alternative to common fertilizers. With a worldwide shortage of fertilizer some farmers will seek out alternatives and it won’t work out well.
One of the best explanations yet. I swear the misinformation, falsehoods, and tin hat theories among this group is scary at best or an indictment of our educational system at worst. Kudos!
I am not willing to play Russian roulette with the possibility of filling my body with Round-Up receptors.😒
Hypothetically, if I were the “Pretender in Chief” and I was bent on 666 (I mean bbb), I would:
Blame everything on Putin.
Drive up inflation so that, even if there are no food shortages in the US, the Middle Class will not be able to afford that food.
Open the borders and allow millions of starving people to flood into the country. Put them on planes, trains, and buses to spread them out across the land.
Pay farmers not to plant. Sell US farmland off to foreign interests.
Accidentally, burn down the fertilizer plants. Make the price of fertilizer cost prohibitive by blocking natural gas exploration and production.
Limit meat processing plants with over-regulation. Sell US produce overseas. Insist that Covid (I mean Bird Flu) be tested with a faulty test like PCR. Then, kill all of the birds immediately. Do not wait for the test results of an alternate, more reliable test.
Make an Executive Order raising the fuel content of ethanol to 20%. Heck, push for 50%. Insist that it will decrease the price of fuel and save the planet. That should destroy more of those gas cars.
Use increased Geo-engineering. Get planes up there 24-7 dumping aluminum nano-particles to block out the sun. Use Haarp weather control to decrease the rainfall in the Corn Belt.
And that is just the beginning.
We cannot rebuild unless we first destroy everything.
Correction: Brandon may mandate more exports of US-produced foods. For TPTB, the optics of food riots in poor nations are worse than those of people dying from the vaxxes in those same nations.
“…well educated dumb people…”.
Build back better is nothing but one huge government extortion racket they are trying to put in place. These thieves cannot stand a free market.
Sanctions have a great impact on those who put them in place, much more than on Russia….
Raise a garden, try to have a few chickens, learn to cook from scratch, store lots of canned goods, especially meat, and store grains, etc. as well as tools for raising, harvesting, storing food, grinding grains, etc.
Even if we won’t be as hard hit by food shortages as lesser developed nations, it will still be difficult to afford food and fuel and rent and medical care, etc.
Food is an area where we can help ourselves fairly easily, and reserve our currency for the other needs.