The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released March and first quarter (Q1) data today on personal income and outlays [DATA HERE].  The results show an increase in Q1 wages of 4.5%. However, inflation is running 6.6% on the items workers need to purchase.  The net result on Main Street is unsustainable inside the economy.  The U.S. stock market is responding negatively to this release.

It’s easy to get caught up in the esoteric weeds, so my effort here is to show just what is happening by putting an overlay of checkbook economics into the BEA release.  If we take out the noise it is very easy to see the problem.  I have modified TABLE-4 to put the results into simple understandable terms.

(Table 4, Source)

By looking at the far-right column (Q1 2022) you can see the problem.  Wage growth at $268.00, minus taxes paid $51.40, leaves disposable income or take-home pay at $216.60.  However, our expenses for living (shelter, food, utilities, energy, etc) cost $398.50, leaving a deficit for our income of $181.90.  We either dip into our savings to cover our expenses, or we go into debt.  This is not sustainable.

If you look at Q1 last year, you can clearly see where all of the inflation is coming from.  That massive increase in income came from the federal COVID bailout and stimulus funds.  $4 trillion directly pumped into the economy at a time when Biden justified massive bailout spending by saying they needed to offset the economic cost of prior COVID intervention (businesses and workers shut down).  That is the primary source of current inflation.

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In an effort to keep the Daily Open Thread a little more open topic we are going to start a new daily thread for “Presidential Politics”. Please use this thread to post anything relating to the JoeBama Administration and Presidency.

“This is no small thing, to restore a republic after it has fallen into corruption. I have studied history for years and I cannot recall it ever happening. It may be that our task is impossible. Yet, if we do not try then how will we know it can’t be done? And if we do not try, it most certainly won’t be done. The Founders’ Republic, and the larger war for western civilization, will be lost.”

“But I tell you this: We will not go gently into that bloody collectivist good night. Indeed, we will make with our defiance such a sound as ALL history from that day forward will be forced to note, even if they despise us in the writing of it.”

~ Mike Vanderboegh

This thread will refresh daily and appear above the Open Discussion Thread.

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Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. THY WILL BE DONE, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but DELIVER US FROM EVIL.

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen †

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Outraged Representative Chip Roy from Texas (CD-21) used his time during a committee hearing to question Dept of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas with graphic evidence of the death and crisis at the U.S-Mexico border. {Direct Rumble Link} WATCH:

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In his opening monologue tonight, Fox News host Tucker Carlson outlined the latest Dept of Homeland Security agency, the “Disinformation Governance Board,” and the head of the social media control agency, Nina Jankowicz.  WATCH:

BACKGROUND – Previously the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) announced a new Dept of Homeland Security priority to combat disinformation {LINK} on technology platforms including social media.

Many eyebrows were raised as the announcement appeared to be an open admission that the U.S. government was going to control information by applying labels… that would align with allies in social media…. who need a legal justification for censorship and content removal.

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It is getting worse…. 

(15 seconds)

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This is not okay.  Nothing about this is okay.

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Yes, this actually happened today.  During her press briefing Press Secretary Jen Psaki said the White House doesn’t want to “define what success in Ukraine looks like,” but demands U.S. taxpayers to give them another $33 billion toward it.

A few moments later Psaki admits the money will be spent subsidizing not only Ukraine, but NATO allies who are suffering the results of inflation.

Psaki stated the Biden demand for more money “is not all for Ukraine, it’s also for some of our Eastern European partners and others to help support them during this time as well.”  Wait, now we are paying to subsidize the economy of EU countries while our own economy is contracting?

Seriously, the scale of this hubris is blood boiling.  First, they cannot tell us what success consists of, but give us money anyway.  The first segment to watch happens at 18:15 of the video, WATCH (prompted):

TRANSCRIPT – Q    Against the backdrop of the President’s announcement today and request for this $33 billion aid package, can you say: Is it the policy goal of the United States for Ukraine to defeat Russia? 

MS. PSAKI:  Well, look, it depends on how you — we’re not going to define that from here.  That’s for the Ukra- —

Q    How would you define it?

MS. PSAKI:  Well, that’s for the Ukrainians to define. 

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This is getting seriously out of hand.  On top of the $14 billion already appropriated for Ukraine assistance, Joe Biden is now asking for a supplemental budget allocation of an additional $33 billion for Ukraine.  Good grief, that’s almost $50 billion in aid, plus the billions in distributed weapons.

Biden is asking for U.S. taxpayers to fund the budget, salaries and pension obligations of the Ukraine government.  Biden made his request in a letter [SEE HERE] to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi:

[…] “I am writing to provide you with my request for fiscal year (FY) 2022 emergency supplemental funding for critical security and economic assistance to Ukraine.
 
I appreciate the Congress’ continued bipartisan support for Ukraine, NATO, and other partner countries affected by Russia’s War in Ukraine.  My Administration is committed to providing the Ukrainian people the assistance they need.  Our assistance to date has made a difference on the battlefield, helping Ukraine win the battle for Kyiv. 

This $33.0 billion request for additional funding and authority builds on the Congress’ supplemental appropriation of $13.6 billion on March 15, 2022, and seeks to address immediate and near-term security and economic needs.  Additional security assistance will put urgently needed equipment into the hands of Ukraine’s military and police, including ammunition, armored vehicles, small arms, demining assistance, and unmanned aircraft systems. 

Economic assistance will provide Direct Budget Support to provide rapid, flexible funds to assist the Government of Ukraine.” (read more)

Joe Biden wants U.S. taxpayers, those who are struggling to pay our own bills, to fund the government of Ukraine?  In case anyone is not up on current events, we are broke.

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Jack’s magic coffee shop posted their latest financial results today.

As suspected, the social media company Twitter said revenue for the first quarter totaled $1.2 billion (+16%). However, costs and expenses totaled $1.33 billion (+35%), resulting in an operating loss of $128 million. (link)

Another unsustainable result for a company that doesn’t make a profit yet continues to operate.   I digress…

REPOST WARNING – The metaphorical Jack had a great idea, open a coffee shop where the beverages were free and use internal advertising as the income subsidy to operate the business.  Crowds came for the free coffee, comfy couches, fellowship, conversation and enjoyment.

It didn’t matter where Jack got the coffee, how he paid for it, or didn’t, or what product advertising the customers would be exposed to while there.  Few people thought about such things.  Curiously, it didn’t matter what size the crowd was; in the backroom of Jack’s Coffee Shop they were able to generate massive amounts of never-ending free coffee at extreme scales.

Over time, using the justification of parking lot capacity and township regulations, not everyone would be able to park and enter.  Guards were placed at the entrance to pre-screen customers. A debate began.

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The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the First Quarter GDP figures today [DATA HERE] showing the U.S. economy contracted -1.4% in the first quarter.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the dollar value of all goods and services produced in the economy, minus the dollar value of goods and services we import.  The percentages discussed are percentages of change over time.

The first quarter result was an annualized rate of negative 1.4 percent, meaning the U.S. economy is shrinking.   However, this should not come as a surprise as the primary driver of our GDP is consumer spending.  With everything costing more, less stuff is purchased.  Less stuff purchased leads to less stuff generated.

While the first quarter result of -1.4% is not a surprise, in the commonsense perspective, the fact that BEA didn’t revise the fourth quarter result of +6.9% is a little eye opening.  There’s no way in an apples-to-apples valuation the U.S. economy goes from +6.9% to -1.4% in one quarter.  Instead, what we are seeing is the effect we mentioned when the Q4 result was announced.  The BEA is modifying their assumptions by increasing the inflation rate in their calculations of the value of goods and services.  They really didn’t have a choice.

You might remember my prior opinion that the Q4 numbers were very overinflated because of two factors: (1) they underestimated inflation; and (2) the December 2021 import data from the Port of Los Angeles (POLA) was missing [NOTE: remember, Buttigieg was there in November and POLA supervisors are on team Biden].  I said at the time that if my hunch was correct the first quarter 2022 import data would be magnified by the December POLA data being added.  Remember, imports are a deduction to the GDP equation.

Well, what shows up in Q1?  A massive increase in first quarter import data that surprised everyone.  Go figure… lol.

Let’s look at the data

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