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Steve Hilton Excellent Recap on China Trade Confrontation…

Looking at the retaliatory response from China today; there’s lots of great news.  China is doing exactly what President Trump quietly predicted.  They are walking directly into his trap.  Trump is a friggin’ genius…. more on that coming.
This video from Steve Hilton last night was very well presented.


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President Trump Points Out Alternate Favorable Trade Partners – The 2017 "Golden Ticket" Summit….

CTH was wondering how long it would take for President Trump to point out the brutally obvious…. Thanks to some advanced planning that everyone ignored, there are multiple trade alternatives to China:

Perhaps now people will reference President Trump’s long-game strategy which has been evident since his marathon Asia trip in November 2017.
Long before media pundits starting noticing/considering how serious President Trump was about structurally resetting the entire landscape of a U.S-China trade relationship,  President Trump quietly and methodically laid the groundwork with personal visits to: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (Japan); President Moon Jae-in (S-Korea); President Tran Dai Quang (Vietnam); and President Rodrigo Duerte (Philippines).
Oh, how quickly the media forgot.
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Senator Lindsey Graham Discusses 2016 "Spygate" With Maria Bartiromo….

Boy howdy, Maria Bartiromo has the big picture of the 2015/2016 political weaponization of the intelligence apparatus exactly right.  In this interesting interview with Senate Judiciary Chairman Lindsey Graham both Bartriromo and Graham discuss the scale and scope of the 2015/2016 effort to stop Trump.
Interestingly, in a shift of tone, Senator Graham outlines what this surveillance operation means when contrast against the structures of our constitutional government.


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Traditionally Lindsey Graham would bury any issue adverse to the institutions of the DC administrative state.  So there’s two possibilities here:  (A) Graham has fundamentally changed his outlook toward the dangers of the institutions within government; or, (B) Graham is doing a full ‘Castellanos‘ and embracing the controversy in order to control the risk to the administrative state with intent to protect it. [The latter is tradition]
The best way for DC to protect itself from the mob’s approach is to lead it themselves. The modern GOPe club has used this defense sending agents to the front of the grassroots anger in order to control the outcome. [Fast-n-Furious, IRS targeting, Benghazi, etc.]
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Sunday Talks: Larry Kudlow -vs- Chris Wallace on China…

National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow appears on Fox News to debate Chris Wallace over the U.S-China trade reset.  As customary Wallace completely ignores the dynamic of communist China as a state run economy, and not a free market system; thus presenting the fictitious Wall Street position about bad tariffs.
Chairman Kudlow notes the bigger issues of President Trump confronting the enforcement mechanisms that must be in place if a trade agreement (FTA) between a free-market system (USA) and a state-run system (China) are going to work…


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Washington, DC – U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer today released the following statement regarding additional action under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974:
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Michael Pillsbury Outlines China's Biggest Miscalculation…

Great interview segment between Lou Dobbs and Michael Pillsbury discussing the status of the U.S-China trade conflict.  Pillsbury notes how the Chinese analysts likely fell into the trap of believing what most western financial media were saying about domestic opposition to President Trump’s policies.
https://youtu.be/pilqeV2aNeE?t=4m48s
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One of the aspects to President Trump that bears a continual reminder is the importance of actual economic victory over optical political victory.   President Trump is primarily focused on the former, and only concerned about the latter as it relates to his goal:

….to fundamentally restructure the way the American economy interacts with the global community. Economic security is national security.

That’s what President Trump cares about. President Trump’s outlook on economic security is only superseded by one measure: his willingness to use the U.S. military to protect U.S. persons from physical threats of harm.
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President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump Participate in the Celebration of Military Moms…

President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump participate in a celebration of military mothers at the White House earlier today [Video and Transcript].


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[Transcript] East Room – 4:30 P.M. EDT – THE PRESIDENT: Great job. Thank you very much. And thank you for being here. And, Melania, you did a beautiful job in organizing this incredible celebration of America’s military mothers. That’s good. I had a great mother — Mary. I loved my mother. I miss my mother.
Military moms are the backbone of America. I know it is still two days away, but I wish everybody right now a very Happy Mother’s Day. Happy Mother’s Day, everybody. (Applause.) Happy Mother’s Day. Thank you.
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NO DEAL – China Departs Early as Negotiations End – President Trump Fulfills Campaign Promise…

Giddy up… President Trump has fulfilled another campaign promise to confront China and hold firm.  As promised, three decades of Donald Trump’s intense commitment to stop the exfiltration of Amerian wealth is on display today.

When you plant your tree in another man’s orchard don’t be surprised when you end up paying for your own apples….


U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer; U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin; U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and U.S. President Donald Trump are confronting Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping and Vice-Chairman Liu He… and now consequential things get economically very serious.
There are going to see multiple geopolitical background moves now as the confrontation shifts to the painful phase…. who can outlast the economic standoff.

WASHINGTON DC – Negotiations to end the US-China trade war came to a surprisingly early close in Washington on Friday with no signs of a deal – reportedly just hours before the Chinese delegation will return to Beijing.
US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told reporters at noon that the talks had been constructive as he left the US trade representative’s office, where negotiators held their latest round of talks in an attempt to end a months-long trade dispute. (more)

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President Trump Proposal to Counteract China and Big Club/Big AG Strategy…

Today President Trump outlines an approach to head-off the anticipated retaliation from China over the increase in U.S. tariffs that began today. Whether this is structurally possible, or whether this is Trump’s attempt to diminish the leverage carried by Vice-Chairman Liu He, is an interesting question. However, the strategy is clear.
Overall U.S. inflation remains low relative to the economic gains from MAGAnomic policy. [Current CPI HERE].  GDP and wage growth are both exceeding inflation. As such, now is indeed the best time to confront China. President Trump notes this today in a tweet:

Inflation in the U.S. remains low overall at 1.8%…. now is the perfect time to hit Beijing with expanded tariffs.  However, President Trump knows China will retaliate through the multinationals on Wall Street.  President Trump knows China will specifically target the U.S. Agriculture sector. China will likely attempt to put pressure on Trump by refusing to buy U.S. farm product. The BIG AG multinationals will go bananas.
The BIG AG multinationals, those who control food/farm production, also control key Senators; they have been purchased through lobbyists. This is part of the Big Club approach/strategy.  Wall Street and the U.S. Senate will be aligned to support China; as a consequence President Trump needs to counteract their effort.
President Trump’s approach to counteract China’s strike against the U.S. agricultural community is visible in a series of tweets today.  I don’t necessarily agree with the proposal long-term, BUT I do understand the short-term objective…. optimum expediency.
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Devin Nunes Discusses James Comey Recent Comments….

House Intelligence Committee ranking member Devin Nunes discusses James Comey’s recent comments and the ongoing efforts against Attorney General Bill Barr.


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The full James Comey town hall event is below:
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U.S. Seizes North Korean Freighter Violating U.N. Sanctions…

The Southern District of New York has released a criminal complaint to accompany the seizure of a North Korean freighter “Wise Honest” (Full pdf below). The freighter was seized by Indonesian authorities on/around April 2, 2018 [media story here]. However, the background story of Wise Honest is more interesting.

The indictment outlines how the freighter was used to transport coal from North Korea to China and Russia and back-haul heavy equipment from Chinese ports into the DPRK. However, the transport network changed with the timing of increased sanctions on the DPRK.  Simply, the ship was routed to avoid being caught for violating sanctions.
The indictment also outlines how Chinese entities in Hong Kong assisted with routing the vessel to avoid maritime surveillance. There’s an aspect here that overlays a prior set of CTH discussions surrounding U.S. Navy training for a potential U.S. maritime blockade.
You might remember November 2017 CTH discussions about U.S. vessels conducting training exercises in/around shipping lanes. In 2017 and 2018 there were some maritime collisions that seemed to align with the possibility of these training exercises. In June 2017 The USS Fitzgerald was one such example near the coast of Japan.
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