Underpinning the contracting EU economy are two major forces.  First, the instability of their financial markets, thanks in majority to their catastrophic Build Back Better energy agenda.  Secondly, China exploiting the economic vulnerability and dumping massive amounts of cheap goods onto their consumer market.  Both forces are working against the EU economy.

To backstop the collapse, the EU is counting on expanded militaristic spending to get them out of their dead-end path.  Again, in majority, the economics of the thing is why they want expanded war with Russia – regardless of the detrimental outcome.  Without war they have to give up their Build Back Better green energy program.

In this interview, EU Central Bank President Christine Lagarde obfuscates both issues and points a finger at President Trump’s geopolitical economic and trade reset.  The only thing she accurately presents is the scale of the issue, the “trillions at stake” part.  WATCH (Transcript Below):

[Transcript] – MARGARET BRENNAN: We’re joined now by the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde. The ECB sets interest rates for many countries in the European Union, which is America’s largest trading partner. Good to have you here.

CHRISTINE LAGARDE: Lovely to be back, Margaret.

MARGARET BRENNAN: From where you sit, how would you describe the state of the global economy?

CHRISTINE LAGARDE: In transformation.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Transformation.

CHRISTINE LAGARDE: Transformation, I think caused by a couple of things. One is the tariffs, which have changed the map of trade around the world and reconstituted new alliances and reformed the way in which we trade with each other. I think the second major transformation is the impact of artificial intelligence on everything we do from data management to dating and everything in between.

(more…)

According to the internal memoranda [SEE HERE], OMB Director Russ Vought is planning for a large-scale reduction in force (RIF), with many of the federal employees released being terminated permanently.

The Democrat triggered “govt shut down” plays nicely into the plans of President Trump and OMB Director Vought.  Democrats hope they have a politically advantageous position to take in shutting down the government; however, the position of Trump and Vought is to downsize government.  The shutdown expedites the downsizing.

President Trump was asked about the scope impact to federal employees, during a brief impromptu press availability, as he departs the White House going to Quantico.  WATCH:

.

(more…)

The financial punditry are verklempt, puzzled and perplexed as the wholesale inflation rate calculated by the Bureau of Labor and Statistics Producer Price Index [DATA HERE] shows a drop in PPI of -0.1% for August.

Despite the pundits claiming the Trump tariffs were going to drive up prices, the data shows the manufacturers of products are absorbing the majority of the tariff costs, the importers are absorbing the remnants and the consumer prices are not reflecting the tariff.  Go figure!

[DATA HERE]

Exactly as expected, the wholesale price of tariffs are being offset by production cost reductions by the export dependent manufacturing companies overseas.  This is exactly what took place in the first term, and the situation is duplicating even with higher tariff rates.

Export dependent nations are squeezing their own productivity, their governments are subsidizing the critical industries and the tariffs are being absorbed before they even leave the docks.   This is the USA “rust belt” in reverse.  The same scenario played out in the USA for decades as domestic manufacturers tried to retain U.S. industry.  Now the foreign countries are experiencing their own economic squeeze.

(more…)

U.S. Solicitor General D. John Sauer has asked the Supreme Court to accept the case by next week, hear arguments in early November and “expedite” its ultimate ruling “to the maximum extent feasible.” [Appeal Here] with [Expedited Review Request Here]

[SOURCE]

From the request for expedited consideration, “The en banc Federal Circuit’s erroneous decision has disrupted highly impactful, sensitive, ongoing diplomatic trade negotiations, and cast a pall of legal uncertainty over the President’s efforts to protect our country by preventing an unprecedented economic and foreign-policy crisis,” Sauer notes.

Adding comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, “The recent decision by the Federal Circuit is already adversely affecting ongoing negotiations. World leaders are questioning the Presi-dent’s authority to impose tariffs, walking away from or delaying negotiations, and/or imposing a different calculus on their negotiating positions.”

(more…)

There are trillions at stake. The current 7-4 decision from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit surrounds a May decision by the U.S. Court of International Trade. The original case concluded that President Trump exceeded his authority under the 1977 law he invoked to impose both the fentanyl trafficking tariffs and his worldwide tariffs, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). [SEE RULING HERE]

“We are not addressing whether the President’s actions should have been taken as a matter of policy. Nor are we deciding whether IEEPA authorizes any tariffs at all. Rather, the only issue we resolve on appeal is whether the Trafficking Tariffs and Reciprocal Tariffs imposed by the Challenged Executive Orders are authorized by IEEPA. We conclude they are not.”

It is obvious the Democrat appointed majority are tenuous in their position.  No one doubts the presidential power to declare a national emergency.  To wit, the ruling highlights a very nervous court with much of the language straddling the fence trying not give the impression they are interfering in Article II presidential powers to make foreign policy decisions.

Unelected judges restricting the power of the Executive Branch, and by extension restricting a President elected by the majority of the nations’ citizens to address a national emergency, is not a construct supported by the Supreme Court.  The six activist judges on the federal appeals court panel seemingly know this; however, the power of the political -and I would guess financial- pressure compels them.

The court deferred their ruling which will not take effect until Oct. 14, giving the Trump administration time to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court.  President Trump responded via Truth Social.

(more…)

India is now facing a 50% import tariff against the majority of their goods (electronics and pharmaceuticals exempted). However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed not to yield to the pressure. Modi said the world was witnessing a “politics of economic selfishness.”

For approximately a decade many western countries including the U.S. have heaped effusive praise on India as corporations viewed the massive Indian population, the world’s largest democracy, as both workers and consumers.  However, after the western sanctions against Russia were delivered, India -a BRICS nation- began pulling back from western alignment and influence.

Western sanctions map against Russia (yellow = agree with USA).

What we are witnessing now is one of the ramifications of the U.S. forcefully putting an “us or them” aspect into the strategic economic relationship, where “them” is Russia.  Currently, India is not flinching.

One could make the argument that undeveloped regions in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) contain the majority of the valuable rare earth minerals and magnets the ‘western’ nations need for manufacturing.  BRICS has a pressure point to apply leverage, but no global trade currency, if the trade conflict escalates.

(more…)

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears on Fox Business to discuss some very important current issues in the world of finance, banking and trade.

Bessent begins by answering questions about the U.S. government taking equity interests in companies that come to the U.S. for support.  Bessent then notes the potential for the Trump administration to construct a taxpayer stake in Fannie and Freddie, before the Treasury Secretary moves on to talk about the trade issues with India.  WATCH:

.

(more…)

The Federal Reserve Board announced on Friday that Adriana D. Kugler will step down from her position as governor of the Federal Reserve Board, effective August 8, 2025.

Dr. Kugler, who has served as a governor since September 13, 2023, submitted her letter of resignation to President Trump and will return to Georgetown University as a professor this fall. The text of the letter from Governor Kugler is below:

[SOURCE pdf]

President Trump will now get to appoint a replacement.

(more…)

Too funny.  The economic pretending is so strong almost every outlet leads the Gross Domestic Product news release by saying “better than expected.”  Duh!   The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the GDP date for the second quarter (Q2) and shows a 3.0% jump in economic growth.

We say “duh”, because it was an entirely predictable result.  Why, because imports are a deduction to the GDP equation and imports dropped 30.3% in the second quarter (Table 1, line 19).   We said this was going to happen because there was a surge of imported goods in the first quarter as companies tried to be proactive with orders in advance of tariffs.

That massive influx of imports made the Q1 GDP weak (-0.5%).  Conversely, with all those goods delivered in the first quarter, the products were not imported in Q2 and the GDP rebounded.  The lack of imports, ultimately the lack of deduction, resulted in a 5.18% positive change to the second quarter GDP (Table 2, line 47).

[Source, Table 2, Line 47]

But wait, the winning doesn’t stop there.  Remember, the Big Beautiful Bill just passed in July. That means fixed asset investment is likely to expand in Q3 because 100% expensing on capital investment was part of the BBB.

But wait, there’s more.  Annual wages spiked 4.4% — double the rate of inflation (2.1%).   That means people are growing their wage incomes twice as fast as prices are rising.  Real wage growth is back again!  Yes, REAL WAGE GROWTH.

(more…)

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer hold a joint press conference in Stockholm after concluding the third-round of trade talks with Chinese officials.

The discussion and press availability covered U.S-China trade negotiations, economic cooperation and whether President Trump will meet Xi Jinping. Key moments include questions on tariffs, supply chains, and Beijing diplomacy. WATCH:

.

Treasury Secretary Bessent notes as the U.S. economy continues strengthening, and as each trade deal with the U.K, Japan, ASEAN nations and Europe have cemented, the talks between the U.S. and China become more substantive.

With each global trade partner agreeing to terms of access to the USA market more pressure is naturally created on China to complete negotiations and affirm their position as supplier to the world’s largest market.

(more…)